暴跌40%！三大电商3万亿灰飞烟灭，阿里被逼囚徒困境、毁灭价值？百亿私募新星：恶性竞争，短期不会碰；景林桥水也有行动

中国基金报2021-05-16

中国基金报江右“国内电商赛道急转直下、阿里也被逼囚徒困境、这条赛道已经价值毁灭“，近日一位雪球大V、百亿私募新星犀利点评电商股。实际情况是，这两年顶级互联网巨头在电商赛道展开激烈角逐、包括社区团购大战；最近几个月，拼多多、京东、阿里这几家电商巨头，股价高位跌落，相当惨烈。究竟怎么看这些动辄万亿市值的电商巨头股，知名投资人、顶流基金经理们似乎有着不一定的态度。阿里拼多多京东股价暴跌40%：3.08...

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Crixalis
2021-05-16
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好同志
2021-05-16
好同志
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Billions of Private Placement Novas: Vicious Competition, Not Touched in Short Term; Jinglin Bridge Water also has actions","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"48454":0.6,"48470":0.6,"48479":0.6,"48521":0.6,"48566":0.6,"48669":0.6,"48672":0.6,"48673":0.6,"48682":0.6,"48687":0.6,"48699":0.6,"48701":0.6,"48755":0.6,"PDD":0.9,"JD":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"UCmain":0.75,"CNHmain":0.75,"TTTN":0.66,"QNETCN":0.6,"CYB":0.6,"09618":0.6,"09988":0.6},"content_text":"中国基金报 江右“国内电商赛道急转直下、阿里也被逼囚徒困境、这条赛道已经价值毁灭“，近日一位雪球大V、百亿私募新星犀利点评电商股。实际情况是，这两年顶级互联网巨头在电商赛道展开激烈角逐、包括社区团购大战；最近几个月，拼多多、京东、阿里这几家电商巨头，股价高位跌落，相当惨烈。究竟怎么看这些动辄万亿市值的电商巨头股，知名投资人、顶流基金经理们似乎有着不一定的态度。阿里拼多多京东股价暴跌40%：3.08万亿市值灰飞烟灭先来看看几张图，拼多多、京东、阿里股价走势图，3只股票从高位下来平均跌幅40.56%。从今年2月份春节后冲到高位，拼多多、京东的股价一路瀑布式下跌，短短几个月，拼多多从212.6美元，跌至如今的118.33美元。京东集团的港股也从高位的422.8港元到如今的268.2港元，美股京东从108.29美元跌至如今的68.15美元。拼多多和京东最高价下来最大跌幅分别达到47%和38%（京东美股和港股）。阿里的跌势更早就开始了，去年10月底冲高后就开始一路的下跌。阿里的美股从319.32美元跌至如今的209.51美元；港股则是从309.4港元跌至204.6港元。阿里的市值大，美股和港股的跌幅都有35%。市值方面。阿里巴巴去年10月份高位总市值8513亿美元（折合5.72万亿人民币），至今最新市值7470亿美元（3.69万亿人民币）；从今年2月份的高位至今，拼多多的市值从2512亿美元（1.62万亿人民币）跌至如今的1483亿美元（9569亿人民币），京东的市值从高位的1683亿美元（1.08万亿人民币），跌至最新的1081亿美元（6973亿人民币）。阿里、拼多多、京东三大电商巨头，高位以来市值分别缩水人民币20338亿元、6608亿人民币、3863亿元，合计蒸发3.08万亿元。不少市场人士认为，对资本无序竞争和互联网巨头垄断的管制，以及电商行业竞争格局的变化，美团、头条、快手等互联网新巨头，通过各种方式进入电商战场，包括社区团购的渗透，让电商行业格局发生了明显变化，这或许是三家电商股股价暴跌的原因。百亿私募新星：电商股已价值毁灭、短期不会碰近日，投资社区雪球大V、这几年崛起的“主动+量化”双驱动的百亿私募新星，85后的进化论资产王一平，颇为犀利地对电商股的现状进行了点评。王一平表示，国内的电商赛道急转直下。现在是高投入，低产出，没有终局。阿里也被逼的囚徒困境，一起烧钱。但是这条赛道实际已经价值毁灭了。随着时间的推演，6家以上的公司恶性竞争，时间不再是电商的朋友，已经无法形成可以沉淀的壁垒，更像是不堪重负的烧钱机器。在阿里、京东、拼多多三大电商之外，目前至少还有美团、今日头条、快手等通过外卖平台、直播带货等各种方式进入电商领域，而前段时间社区团购更是各类互联网群雄逐鹿，社区团购也在向电商渗透。王一平表示，大家（互联网巨头）效率和模式都各有优势，没有绝对领先的效率模式，烧钱的探索会持续很久，利润起来的时间会被拉长。而领头的老大阿里有点囚徒困境，因为追求利润不竞争原有地盘会被蚕食，但是参与竞争就意味着利润大幅度减少，但是起码可能资本市场可以给估值。王一平认为，阿里也下场烧钱的话，那大家可能都没有高估值了。在王一平看来，连（行业）老大都受不了这种玩法了，电商竞争太激烈，一般来说6家以上头部公司的竞争很难有好的商业格局。2-3家还比较容易形成好的商业格局（寡头垄断），介于二者之间就要看具体情况了。王一平表示，后面可能还是要有差异化的市场才有立足之地。短期不太看得到赢家，还是选择回避。千亿顶流基金经理张坤：易方达亚洲精选买京东阿里买满格值得注意的是，千亿顶流公募基金经理张坤，旗下的易方达亚洲精选（QDII基金），随着一季度基金份额增加，还在继续加码京东和阿里的股票，美股和港股都买，并且买到10%的基金持仓上限。从一季度末易方达亚洲精选前十大重仓股来看，持仓京东集团港股6.06%、美股4.57%，合计持有京东达10.63%；持有阿里巴巴港股5.66%、美股4.44%，合计持有阿里10.1%。并且都较去年末持股数大举增加。对于持仓超10%上限，该基金表示属于被动超标。张坤在一季报中表示，判断周期性的顶部和底部几乎是不可能的，而相对可行的是，不断审视我们组合中的公司长期创造自由现金流的能力有没有受损，如果没有，只要内在价值能够稳步提升，股价运行中枢提升就是迟早的事情。不过，与张坤管理的易方达蓝筹精选、易方达中小盘相比，易方达亚洲精选的业绩并不太好。易方达亚洲精选今年以来净值下跌10.67%，张坤从2014年4月任职以来，年化回报为8.12%。不过在蓝筹精选和中小盘暂停大额申购和申购后，开放申购的易方达亚洲精选的份额今年一季度还是大幅增长了，从7.44亿猛增至20.49亿份。由于阿里、京东尚未纳入港股通，目前880亿规模的易方达蓝筹精选买入。景林大举减持拼多多，不过仍是第二大重仓在港股出炉的千亿私募巨头景林资产的美股持仓当中，去年四季度大举增持拼多多后，今年一季度又猛烈进行了减持，不过拼多多仍是在该机构在美股市场的第二大重仓。此外，景林略微增持了京东。一季报显示，景林资产在美股的重仓股中，一季度减持拼多多近378万股至261.8万股，季末持有市值3.5亿美元，拼多多也从景林资产的第一重仓股掉落至第二重仓股。桥水也在大举减持阿里拼多多和京东国际知名对冲基金桥水基金，一季度也大举减持了阿里拼多多和京东。截至一季度末，桥水基金持有的大量中概股总体持仓方向为减持，如重仓持有的阿里巴巴、拼多多、京东、百度和蔚来均出现减持，这些公司今年一季度波动较大，加仓陆金所、贝壳、新东方、百济神州等。编辑：小茉基金圈炸锅！暴赚375.52%，超越刘彦春、张坤两大顶流，首位五年期女冠军基金经理来了！又一次见证历史","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":192833405,"gmtCreate":1621174122607,"gmtModify":1634193592198,"author":{"id":"3581159459661289","authorId":"3581159459661289","name":"Crixalis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db5526d70a786b8749cea4eee82ace81","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581159459661289","authorIdStr":"3581159459661289"},"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192833405","repostId":2135510981,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":192195574,"gmtCreate":1621157712598,"gmtModify":1621157712598,"author":{"id":"3583538722626338","authorId":"3583538722626338","name":"好同志","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583538722626338","authorIdStr":"3583538722626338"},"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192195574","repostId":2135510981,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; 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