全球增长见顶后怎么办？高盛给出了市场路线图

华尔街见闻2021-05-11

随着全球经济强劲反弹，投资者也面临关键性的转变：在全球经济反弹增速见顶后，市场会发生什么？高盛表示，随着经济增速扩张放缓，市场的回报率也将呈下降趋势。未来债券收益率的涨跌及变化速度将对市场市场回报率起非常重要的作用，其建议投资者关注目前估值依然较低的价值及防御类板块。本轮市场反弹远超平均水平回顾本轮市场反弹，高盛表示与上个世纪70年代的历次熊市相比，本轮反弹中股市回报表现远远高于正常平均水平...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

Teerak
2021-05-11
Teerak
Yes is correct
tw0303
2021-05-11
tw0303
不用太担心
- gwp0123:
  只是技术调整
Wang1305
2021-05-11
Wang1305
来赞我

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2134666662?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b3684302211042d481cacf9066fbcca","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2021-05-11 18:28","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2134666662","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"全球增长见顶后怎么办？高盛给出了市场路线图","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>随着全球经济强劲反弹，投资者也面临关键性的转变：在全球经济反弹增速见顶后，市场会发生什么？\n高盛表示，随着经济增速扩张放缓，市场的回报率也将呈下降趋势。未来债券收益率的涨跌及变化速度将对市场市场回报率起非常重要的作用，其建议投资者关注目前估值依然较低的价值及防御类板块。\n本轮市场反弹远超平均水平\n回顾本轮市场反弹，高盛表示与上个世纪70年代的历次熊市相比，本轮反弹中股市回报表现远远高于正常平均水平...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3630017\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"wallstreetcn_api","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>全球增长见顶后怎么办？高盛给出了市场路线图</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n全球增长见顶后怎么办？高盛给出了市场路线图\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-11 18:28 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3630017><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>随着全球经济强劲反弹，投资者也面临关键性的转变：在全球经济反弹增速见顶后，市场会发生什么？\n高盛表示，随着经济增速扩张放缓，市场的回报率也将呈下降趋势。未来债券收益率的涨跌及变化速度将对市场市场回报率起非常重要的作用，其建议投资者关注目前估值依然较低的价值及防御类板块。\n本轮市场反弹远超平均水平\n回顾本轮市场反弹，高盛表示与上个世纪70年代的历次熊市相比，本轮反弹中股市回报表现远远高于正常平均水平...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3630017\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"GS","symbol_name":"高盛","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3630017","article_id":"2134666662","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b3684302211042d481cacf9066fbcca"],"rights":{"source":"wallstreetcn_api","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3630017","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2134666662","pubTimestamp":1620728882,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn_api","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"随着全球经济强劲反弹，投资者也面临关键性的转变：在全球经济反弹增速见顶后，市场会发生什么？\n高盛表示，随着经济增速扩张放缓，市场的回报率也将呈下降趋势。未来债券收益率的涨跌及变化速度将对市场市场回报率","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"translate_title":"What if global growth peaks? Goldman Sachs gave a market roadmap","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a48d0bcf785e9fafa9c274ddf84f28ac","symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9},"content_text":"随着全球经济强劲反弹，投资者也面临关键性的转变：在全球经济反弹增速见顶后，市场会发生什么？\n高盛表示，随着经济增速扩张放缓，市场的回报率也将呈下降趋势。未来债券收益率的涨跌及变化速度将对市场市场回报率起非常重要的作用，其建议投资者关注目前估值依然较低的价值及防御类板块。\n本轮市场反弹远超平均水平\n回顾本轮市场反弹，高盛表示与上个世纪70年代的历次熊市相比，本轮反弹中股市回报表现远远高于正常平均水平，也超过2008年金融危机后类似时期的回报率。这种市场强劲反弹很大程度上可以通过经济衰退的不寻常性（疫情）以及全球央行前所未有的财政货币政策支持来解释。\n\n\n与此同时，股市表现与经济指标的关联依然非常紧密，股市变化与ISM指数高度同步。\n\n债券收益率将是未来市场关键变量\n在经济周期方面，高盛认为目前市场正处于从经典的“希望”阶段（回报受经济复苏预期较高估值的驱动）和较长的“增长”阶段（回报较低、估值下降）过渡的早期阶段。历史经验表明，此阶段市场回报往往会放缓，市场模式演变也没有非常明晰的变化模式。\n历史经验显示，随着ISM扩张速度越来越慢，市场的回报率也将呈下降趋势。同时债券收益率涨跌的变化将对市场回报率起非常重要的作用：如果债券收益率上升(往往意味着中期增长/通胀预期上升)，这个阶段的周期性及价值类股票回报往往会更高。\n高盛强调，市场未来走势将更多取决于增长预期和债券收益率之间的平衡。债券收益率变动的方向和收益率曲线的斜率也将对市场造成影响。\n\n在债券收益率走势方面，高盛认为目前债券市场的通货再膨胀交易仍然完整——收益率的下行空间可能有限，其预计美国10年期国债收益率将恢复上行趋势，本季度结束时接近1.8%。\n价值&防御股值得关注\n高盛建议投资者高度关注价值类及防御类股票。\n在目前涨势迅猛的工业周期股方面，高盛认为目前的市场定价已经基本反映了全球经济强劲复苏的预期，相关股票涨势可能接近尾声。\n高盛强调，按历史经验，在目前经济周期阶段，无论经济增长势头如何，只要债券收益率上升，价值股通常表现良好。\n但本轮市场反弹中出现一些变化：自去年股市触底以来，价值股回报远低于历史同期水平。高盛认为，这可能是由于实际利率持续走低、疫情利好大量科技公司等因素共同造成。\n但高盛对于价值类股票走势依然持乐观态度，称价值类股相对于历史水平继续显得便宜，目前处于周期中最有利的阶段。\n与价值类股不同的是，防御性类股应会受益于增长强劲和债券收益率上升。但高盛提醒投资者，从大周期角度上看，防御类股票尚未处于周期中最有利的阶段。\n\n在细分主题方面，高盛认为“去碳化”很可能会取代“数字化”成为本轮经济周期中投资的关键。同时科技外的投资也将大幅增加，基础设施支出和与去碳化相关领域(如可再生能源投资)的大幅上升，可能会为其中一些领域带来更高的回报","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":199740245,"gmtCreate":1620736679287,"gmtModify":1634196733098,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"Teerak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Yes is correct&nbsp;","listText":"Yes is correct&nbsp;","text":"Yes is correct","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199740245","repostId":2134666662,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":199444907,"gmtCreate":1620730612209,"gmtModify":1634196787476,"author":{"id":"3582704840860138","authorId":"3582704840860138","name":"tw0303","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a7ba55a3106ff0e985b384d374b1bf7","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"不用太担心","listText":"不用太担心","text":"不用太担心","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199444907","repostId":2134666662,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4291611,"gmtCreate":1620731483818,"gmtModify":1635498020064,"authorId":3582619021047705,"author":{"id":3582619021047705,"authorId":3582619021047705,"name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":199444907,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"只是技术调整","text":"只是技术调整","html":"只是技术调整"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":199456632,"gmtCreate":1620729301026,"gmtModify":1634196795136,"author":{"id":"3581573537832144","authorId":"3581573537832144","name":"Wang1305","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"来赞我","listText":"来赞我","text":"来赞我","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199456632","repostId":2134666662,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.1","shortVersion":"4.25.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2134666662"}