高盛：原油需求将现有史以来最大增幅，黄金迈向2000美元

华尔街见闻2021-04-29

顶级投行高盛对大宗商品格外青睐有加。四个月前，该行策略分析师直接高呼，新的大宗商品超级周期已经到来，而在昨天发布的最新报告中，高盛分析师Jeffrey Currie预测，在未来的六个月里，我们将看到原油市场出现史无前例的需求增长——每日增加520万桶，这个数字比2000年以来第二高的需求量整整多了50%。需求的增加来源于几个方面：全球对抗新冠病毒的限制措施逐步解禁、利率下降和美元走软，具体而言：...

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精彩评论

闻声12
2021-04-29
闻声12
[财迷]
JanetXinru
2021-04-29
JanetXinru
666
- JanetXinru:
  [财迷]
Json22
2021-04-29
Json22
[强]
无欲2057
2021-04-29
无欲2057
黄金接下来都会表现不错
ruiping88
2021-04-29
ruiping88
[微笑]
- Json22:
  [微笑] [微笑]

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Currie预测，在未来的六个月里，我们将看到原油市场出现史无前例的需求增长——每日增加520万桶，这个数字比2000年以来第二高的需求量整整多了50%。需求的增加来源于几个方面：全球对抗新冠病毒的限制措施逐步解禁、利率下降和美元走软，具体而言：大宗商品价格近期盘整的核心是由于欧洲因为疫情重新封闭，原油需求较为平淡，以及利率走高带动的美元上涨，而现在，这三个因素都正在逐步逆转。从出行指标来看，群体的活动水平正在步入正轨，尤其是在欧洲加速接种疫苗之后，这种势头越发强劲。与此同时，交通运输、制造业和建筑业的季节性复苏已经开始，而且会在今年六月前持续加速。需要注意的是，商品市场是由量（或者说需求水平）驱动的，简而言之，当需求量超过供应量，稀缺性溢价就出现了，这种溢价是无法在事前被计入价格的。即将到来的原油需求达到难以被忽略的量级，与此同时，商品的供应却在短期内缺乏弹性，这也很好理解，你不可能在几个月的时间里就新挖一座矿或者新种一种农作物。总的来说，高盛预计大宗商品价格在未来六个月内会再涨13.5%，布油将触及80美元，WTI张至77美元。该行对铜价12个月目标价为每吨11000美元，刷新纪录。解封带来的活动量增加在人们预期之中，而且已经传递到了市场，但为什么大宗商品的价格还没有完全反应这一点呢？对于这个问题，高盛的解答是：大宗商品的价格必须与当前市场的实际需求量和供应量相对应——它们不可能像股票那样具有前瞻性。只要大宗商品稀缺性溢价（即现货溢价）还在持续，库存水平必定会被拉下来。如果即期价格高于远期，当前盈余的实物商品将会出库，在较高的即期价格下被出售，将市场推回到开始时的水平。只有实物短缺才能维持现货溢价，重要的是，现货溢价是目前一半以上的大宗商品市场都存在的现象。整个市场迈向现货溢价说明库存不足，现货市场更加紧张。正是因为大宗商品依赖于需求水平，而只有需求水平超过供应水平，才能在市场上产生实物稀缺性溢价，我们才有信心认为，持续的现货溢价正在向我们表明，大宗商品市场如今正日益趋紧。高盛还提到，商品市场的紧俏不仅会波及整个行业，还会传到全球例如美国、中国和欧洲，以及建筑、汽车和零售等多个行业。各个方面的需求量都在大幅增长，这种需求增长的核心点在于，各国的决策层都倾向于解决社会需求，而非聚焦于宏观稳定性。例如美国总统拜登的最新的刺激计划，就着重于扶持低收入家庭。 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