DJ The Fed won't taper until 2023 at the earliest, says former White House economist. Here's why.

MarketWatch2021-04-21

The first quarter saw the worst performance of the 10-year note going back to 1980. But that hasn't been the case of late, with the 10-year yield slipping around 15 basis points from its late March ...

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精彩评论

carjang
2021-04-21
carjang
Like and comment please
零舞酒妖
2021-04-21
零舞酒妖
[冷漠] [冷漠] [冷漠] mlm
Wingates
2021-04-21
Wingates
Gogogoo buy
AntonyGeorge
2021-04-21
AntonyGeorge
Buy buy
AntonyGeorge
2021-04-21
AntonyGeorge
Good
AntonyGeorge
2021-04-21
AntonyGeorge
Good

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Here's why.","media":"MarketWatch","content":"<div>\n<p>The first quarter saw the worst performance of the 10-year note going back to 1980.\n\nBut that hasn't been the case of late, with the 10-year yield slipping around 15 basis points from its late March ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-wont-taper-until-2023-at-the-earliest-says-former-white-house-economist-heres-why-11619001786?mod=home-page\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1603348471595","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>DJ The Fed won't taper until 2023 at the earliest, says former White House economist. 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Here's why.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-21 21:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-wont-taper-until-2023-at-the-earliest-says-former-white-house-economist-heres-why-11619001786?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The first quarter saw the worst performance of the 10-year note going back to 1980.\n\nBut that hasn't been the case of late, with the 10-year yield slipping around 15 basis points from its late March ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-wont-taper-until-2023-at-the-earliest-says-former-white-house-economist-heres-why-11619001786?mod=home-page\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".SPX","symbol_name":"S&P 500 Index","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-wont-taper-until-2023-at-the-earliest-says-former-white-house-economist-heres-why-11619001786?mod=home-page","article_id":"2129876539","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129876539","pubTimestamp":1619011048,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1603348471595","name":"MarketWatch"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The first quarter saw the worst performance of the 10-year note going back to 1980.\n\nBut that hasn't","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"marketwatch.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"DJ中国英语学习网前白宫经济学家说，美联储最早要到2023年才会缩减规模。原因就在这里。","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"The first quarter saw the worst performance of the 10-year note going back to 1980.\n\nBut that hasn't been the case of late, with the 10-year yield slipping around 15 basis points from its late March high. That is not all -- the U.S. dollar has softened, and the trading in eurodollar futures suggests reduced expectations for the number of interest-rate hikes between now and the end of 2024. \"That all kind of makes sense with a slower growth trajectory beyond this year,\" says Joe Lavorgna, the chief economist of the Americas for Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking.\nThis year will see \"gangbusters growth,\" says Lavorgna, the chief economist for the White House National Economic Council in the latter days of the Trump administration. \"If the economy was healthy before the [COVID-19] pandemic began, it would make sense the economy would come back quite quickly, and that's certainly been the case in the U.S.\" But Lavorgna distinguishes between gross domestic product growth and the U.S. jobs picture, which is still over 8 million jobs short of pre-pandemic levels.\n\nAnd this job outlook is dependent on the small-business side, where the data haven't been great. \"If we significantly lift marginal tax rates, and the tax rates on capital, that's going to really hurt the S corps,\" he says, referring to businesses with no more than 100 shareholders. The White House didn't reply to a question about S corporation tax policy.\nLavorgna isn't fearful of goods and services inflation, and, as a result, says the Fed won't begin to taper its bond purchases before 2023 -- and won't lift interest rates before the next presidential election. The New York Federal Reserve's survey of primary dealers, in March, found Wall Street expecting that the taper would begin in the first quarter of 2022, with the first hike in the third quarter of 2023. \"If you're going into 2022, and growth is a lot slower, the delta is negative, and inflation isn't really picking up, it's going to be very hard for the Fed to taper,\" the Wall Street veteran says.\nIn the last cycle, it took seven years from the last interest-rate cut to first interest-rate hike. \"This time around, the Fed is more ingrained in markets, the forward guidance is much stronger, the balance sheets are much bigger, it's occurring against massive debt,\" he says. \"How in the world can the Fed possibly step back from bond buying, it seems very difficult to me.\"\nLavorgna says the Trump White House had expected the Biden administration to continue with its China tariffs. But he says there are three distinct differences in economic policies. 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