摩根士丹利：美股小盘股和周期股崩溃是早期信号重新开放和复苏没那么简单

智通财经网2021-04-12

本文选自“华尔街见闻”摩根士丹利发出警告，近期美股小型股的下跌是一个警告信号，暗示美国经济重新开放的难度将加大。摩根士丹利美国股票首席策略师Michael Wilson表示，过去几周标准普尔500指数继续创下历史新高。但自3月12日见顶以来，代表小盘股的罗素2000指数的表现比标准普尔500指数差了8%。与此同时，部分周期性股票开始表现不佳，而防御类股的表现略好一些。IPO和SPAC指数同时双双...

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成吉思汗
2021-04-13
成吉思汗
别信，美股只会一直创新高

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Reopening and recovery are not that simple","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":1},"content_text":"本文选自“华尔街见闻”摩根士丹利发出警告，近期美股小型股的下跌是一个警告信号，暗示美国经济重新开放的难度将加大。摩根士丹利美国股票首席策略师Michael Wilson表示，过去几周标准普尔500指数继续创下历史新高。但自3月12日见顶以来，代表小盘股的罗素2000指数的表现比标准普尔500指数差了8%。与此同时，部分周期性股票开始表现不佳，而防御类股的表现略好一些。IPO和SPAC指数同时双双下跌。对于IPO和SPAC的指数表现不佳，Wilson认为这意味着美联储提供的过度流动性终于被供应所压倒。当新股发行表现如此糟糕时，表明股市将在更大范围内陷入困境。再加上金融体系中的杠杆率非常高，这可能会给风险更高、投机性更强的投资带来更多麻烦。Wilson警告，美股小盘股和周期性股的崩溃是一个潜在的早期预警信号，表明美国经济的实际重新开放将比预期更困难。市场低估了伴随经济复苏而来的执行风险和尚未反映在市场定价中的潜在意外事件。Wilson认为，尽管美国政府及美联储等政策制定者通过货币宽松和财政刺激为经济提供了巨大支持，但疫情封锁在某些情况下破坏了供应。目前从材料、后勤支持到劳动力等方面都出现供应短缺的迹象。在财报方面，Wilson表示，今年一季度财报季可能带来成本和利润方面的坏消息，尤其是与第二季度前景有关的消息。几周以来，公司的表现将分化，一些公司表现得很好，而另一些则相反。Wilson下调小型股的评级，同时建议投资者升级他们的投资组合，增加质量更高的股票。Wilson表示，过去一年复苏进程似乎比预期更快，这意味着经济可能会更早地从早期周期转向中期周期，而高质量股票应该会受益。（智通财经编辑：秦志洲）","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":345274292,"gmtCreate":1618321864116,"gmtModify":1618321864116,"author":{"id":"84892596252020","authorId":"84892596252020","name":"成吉思汗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"别信，美股只会一直创新高","listText":"别信，美股只会一直创新高","text":"别信，美股只会一直创新高","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345274292","repostId":2126069667,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":4,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.24.2","shortVersion":"4.24.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2126069667"}

摩根士丹利：美股小盘股和周期股崩溃是早期信号 重新开放和复苏没那么简单

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摩根士丹利：美股小盘股和周期股崩溃是早期信号重新开放和复苏没那么简单