* STOXX 600 and DAX on record highs
* FTSE up 1.3%
* Miners, autos and banks outperform
* Credit Suisse up 1.5% after Archegos losses
April 6 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
FINANCE MASTER CLASS: MUSK ASKS, WOOD ANSWERS (1029 GMT)
If you always wanted to know what ARK's Cathie Wood thought about the S&P market cap-to-GDP ratio (but were afraid to ask), well, Elon Musk has just done that for you.
Popping into a twitter thread showcasing ARK's latest episode of their "Big Ideas Report", Tesla's chief asked: "What do you think of the unusually high ratio of S&P market cap to GDP?"
The ratio, also known as the Buffett indicator after legend investor Warren Buffet praised its use, is often looked at to determine whether a market is cheap or not -- with a high value indicating it may be getting too pricey.
But Wood, whose ARK Innovation fund is heavily invested in Tesla and other high-flying tech names, seems to believe this metric doesn't capture the new dynamics of an increasingly digitalised world.
"GDP statistics evolved during the Industrial Age and do not seem to be keeping up with the digital age. Thanks to productivity, real GDP growth probably is higher and inflation lower than reported, suggesting that the quality of earnings has increased significantly", she says.
"Investors need to get and stay on the right side of change," she concludes.
You can check out the full answer on twitter:
(Danilo Masoni)
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A U.S.-DRIVEN SUMMER BOOM FOR EQUITIES? (0950 GMT)
While there's no shortage of worries regarding a possible lost summer in Europe given the slow vaccination campaign, it's quite a different story for equities.
"Slow vaccination in Europe is a headwind, but a strong cyclical upswing and inflation spikes will still dominate markets into summer," Generali Investment says in a note, warning its customers to “get ready for the summer boom."
Investors have already positioned themselves for an economic recovery, particularly strong in the U.S., notwithstanding the third wave of the pandemic, and "we see little value in trying to fade the upcoming economic upswing," it adds.
The asset manager keeps an overweight in equities and credit and an underweight in government bonds, while it cuts its Emerging market equity overweight on China’s tapering, rising yields, and a slow vaccination pace.
It says inflation will be temporary amid a strong rebound in commodity prices and shortages in the manufactory sector.
Equities will be able “to survive a slow normalization of real yields, and more so in a period of fast-growing corporate earnings, like in 2021.”
It is particularly true in Europe, where we find the Equity Risk Premium still generous, it argues.
(Stefano Rebaudo)
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VERTIGO INVESTING (0856 GMT)
With the STOXX 600 cruising on record highs this morning, some investors might think twice before buying into the market even if the consensus view is that there's still some space upwards.
"We think investors should not fear entering the market at all-time highs", writes Mark Haefele, the chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management.
"We recommend continuing to position for the reflation trade as the economic recovery gathers pace", he adds, noting investors may well wonder if recent stock market gains are sustainable.
Haefele says that typically stocks thrive for a while after hitting all time highs.
"Our analysis shows that after reaching a fresh high, stocks rose another 11.7% in the following 12 months", he writes, adding that rising yields are usually not a threat for equities.
For Neil Wilson at Markets.com, the conditions are also favourable for stocks.
"The three pillars of the stock market record highs are ultra-loose monetary policy, fiscal support and the proof of the pudding: economic recovery", he writes, noting evidence that these three criteria are currently fulfilled.
Jeffrey Halley at OANDA says the 'buy everything' is making a come back thanks notably to excellent U.S. non manufacturing PMIs.
Halley is however not convinced about the euro zone at the moment given its handling of the pandemic.
"It is hard to construct a case for a "value trade" European recovery play at the moment", he writes, advising to stay long Biden/Boris and short Macron/Merkel.
(Julien Ponthus)
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MILESTONES GALORE AT THE OPEN (0730 GMT)
As expected there's plenty of action across European benchmarks this morning with the STOXX 600 beating its February 2020 record and the DAX consolidating its dominance over the 15,000 points bar.
France's CAC 40 is also well above its pre-COVID 19 levels at 6,130 points and very close to reclaiming the highs it enjoyed prior to the financial crisis over a decade ago.
Milan for its part is just 2.5% below the levels enjoyed prior to the pandemic but it's still less rosy for London's FTSE 100 which has over 10% to go to catch up.
There's been no drama over Credit Suisse and the announcement of its Archegos losses: the stock is roughly flat which is clearly not the worse case scenario.
Actually, the open seems to be leading to a clear-cut risk-on session with cyclicals roaring.
Miners, autos and banks are up 2.4%, 2% and 1.5% respectively.
(Julien Ponthus)
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THE DAY EUROPE RECLAIMED PRE-COVID HIGHS (0659 GMT)
It's been a long road to recovery for European stocks, which along with the old continent's economy have trailed behind global peers. But the pan-European STOXX 600 equity index finally looks set to reclaim the record highs set prior to the COVID-19 market crash.
With European futures trading close to 1% higher, the 433.90 points last seen on February 19 2020 should be exceeded at the open, a milestone Wall Street's S&P 500 achieved nine months ago.
Still, it's a sign Europe Inc. is now getting a taste of the world's economy going back to full speed -- even if pandemic-linked activity curbs are back in force at home.
Exemplifying that is Dutch firm BE Semiconductor Industries which just reported record orders for the first quarter.
And Credit Suisse finally coming clear on Archegos-linked losses -- $4.7 billion -- doesn't seem like a game changer, with even Credit Suisse shares rising pre-market. There's relief possibly that rumours about even bigger losses proved false.
U.S. equity futures are modestly in the red after scoring another record peak on Monday, boosted by an blowout monthly jobs report on Good Friday and a gauge of U.S. services activity hitting a record high.
Yields on U.S. and European government bonds have eased so far in April with 10-year Treasury yields at 1.69% US10YT=RR from 1.73% on Thursday. The dollar too has stabilised near an almost two-week low versus a basket of peers.
An interesting milestone just recently crossed is the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market hitting an all-time peak of $2 trillion on Monday as gains over the last several months attracted demand from both institutional and retail investors.
Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:
- Credit Suisse overhauls executive board as it estimates Archegos fallout at $4.7 bln (Full Story)
- Australia's central bank left interest rates unchanged but cautioned it would "carefully" monitor trends in property debt.
- Euro zone unemployment rate Feb
- China service sector saw the sharpest sales increase in three months.
- EU leaders Charles Michel and von der Leyen meet Erdogan
- IMF spring meeting kicks off
- Federal Reserve minutes; Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks
(Julien Ponthus)
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RECORD HIGH INCOMING DESPITE CREDIT SUISSE (0531 GMT)
With Wall Street claiming new highs and Asia ending the session on a positive note, Europe's STOXX 600 looks set to reach a new record and rise above the highs enjoyed before the COVID-19 2020 March crash.
European futures are trading between 0.4% and 0.9% higher which should be enough for the pan-European index to go from its current 432.2 points to above the 433.9 points last seen in February 2020.
At this stage it doesn't seem that Credit Suisse announcing a $4.7 billion loss on Archegos losses will spill over on the broader market and ruin sentiment.
(Julien Ponthus)
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