拼多多暴跌背后：GMV不及预期、毛利率断崖，黄峥辞职

砍柴网2021-03-17

拼多多财报发布后，盘前股价开始下跌，开盘后更是一度大跌10%。虽然拼多多重点强调本次用户数的增长，但投资者没有买账的原因在于，首先GMV不及预期。本季度GMV增长约为5800亿，同比增长了57%，不仅是历史最低，也低于市场预期。本季度拼多多的人均客单价为2115.2元，增速同样在下降，由此可见，拼多多用户的购买频率并没有得到提升。在4季度传统的电商旺季，加上拼多多之前大力投入了社区团购这样高频次...

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BuffettShan
2021-03-17
BuffettShan
拼多多以前挺好，现在喜欢玩套路，而且越陷越深

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's slump: GMV fell short of expectations, gross profit margin fell off the cliff, and Huang Zheng resigned","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"PDD":1},"content_text":"拼多多财报发布后，盘前股价开始下跌，开盘后更是一度大跌10%。虽然拼多多重点强调本次用户数的增长，但投资者没有买账的原因在于，首先GMV不及预期。本季度GMV增长约为5800亿，同比增长了57%，不仅是历史最低，也低于市场预期。本季度拼多多的人均客单价为2115.2元，增速同样在下降，由此可见，拼多多用户的购买频率并没有得到提升。在4季度传统的电商旺季，加上拼多多之前大力投入了社区团购这样高频次购买的业务，现在数据显然让市场失望了。更令投资者忧虑的是，社区团购不仅拉低了拼多多的平均客单价，并且新增的购买用户也没有带来整个平台更强的购买频次。如果抛开社区团购这个高频的购买，去计算整体平台的粘性，也没有拼多多日活显示的那么高，（并且这部分日活还要计入拼多多砍一刀，和游戏带来的点击量）用户上个季度仍然在淘宝或者京东上买东西的时间更多。还有一个拼多多长期无法解决的问题，就是用户质量持续低下——拼多多的ARPU长期徘徊在2000RMB左右，虽然用了百亿补贴的品牌战略想要提升，但显然没有收到更好的效果，本次财报电话会拼多多也提到了自己的自营项目，在我们看来，这是拼多多为了提升用户质量的一个举措，但这个行为无疑是一个重资产的投入，拼多多由自己擅长的轻资产，要投入京东那样的重资产了吗？这个行为看起来让很多投资者难以理解，更像是拼多多在自乱阵脚。在财报后的电话会上，拼多多又强调未来将进一步对物流和仓储进行投入，加上自营模式，会更加拉低拼多多的毛利率，这已经在本次财报中体现出来，毛利率出现了断崖式的下跌，背后又是营业成本的大幅增加了466%，按照拼多多在投资者电话会上的说法，未来仍然将加大投入，那么最致命的问题出现了。当拼多多的用户量和淘宝持平时，也就同时到达了增长的天花板，未来投资者必然要更加注重拼多多的盈利能力，而本次财报拼多多的利润表现不佳，毛利率又显示出下降的趋势，那么未来拼多多的故事将如何讲述下去？最后一点，创始人黄峥的辞职，他手中的超级投票权也将失效，这对一间创业公司来说，创始人的掌控力被削弱，甚至远离核心管理层，未来拼多多的战略执行力很大程度上将大打折扣，今天投资者已经用实际行动，给出了他们的态度。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":324229692,"gmtCreate":1615996233916,"gmtModify":1703496202128,"author":{"id":"3547610539049078","authorId":"3547610539049078","name":"BuffettShan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e5311c7b0038af65849a20ec0e310c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3547610539049078","authorIdStr":"3547610539049078"},"htmlText":"拼多多以前挺好，现在喜欢玩套路，而且越陷越深","listText":"拼多多以前挺好，现在喜欢玩套路，而且越陷越深","text":"拼多多以前挺好，现在喜欢玩套路，而且越陷越深","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324229692","repostId":2120180869,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2120180869"}