FOMC meeting, retail sales: What to know in the week

Yahoo Finance2021-03-15

Investors this week will be closely watching the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) Wednesday monetary policy decision, as well as a key report on the state of the consumer.The FOMC's March ...

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精彩评论

Jittertude
2021-03-15
Jittertude
no crash pls
LeeWan
2021-03-15
LeeWan
Ok
MarkChan
2021-03-15
MarkChan
Thanks for the article!
Pangabui
2021-03-15
Pangabui
[微笑]
StonkerLL
2021-03-15
StonkerLL
Need a new Fed guy
YOLO_HM
2021-03-15
YOLO_HM
Hope they don't mess up the market again.

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In such a scenario, many investors have feared the Fed might react by moving faster than it has currently telegraphed by quickly raising interest rates, slowing asset purchases and otherwise tightening monetary policy to stave off inflationary pressures.These predictions have manifested in the fixed-income markets, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing some 50 basis points over the past month alone to more than 1.6%, both in anticipation of a strong economic recovery and of a possibly earlier than expected Fed move.But Powell has said in recent public remarks that he believes any signs of inflation in the economy data this year would be transient. He has also maintained that the move higher in Treasury yields reflects an improving outlook on economic growth — a stance he is likely to reiterate during this week's press conference.Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell listens to a question during a House Financial Services Committee oversight hearing to discuss the Treasury Department's and Federal Reserve's response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on December 02, 2020 in Washington, DC.Pool via Getty Images\"We do not expect a policy reaction from the FOMC with respect to ongoing volatility in the Treasury market. Chair Powell will likely highlight the Fed’s current forward guidance and flexible average inflation targeting (FAIT) for short-term rates in order to push back on current market liftoff pricing,\" Nomura economist Lewis Alexander wrote in a note.\"We expect Powell to reiterate that recent increases in long-term rates likely reflect increased optimism over the recovery, but that persistent signs of market illiquidity bear monitoring.\"As of December, the Fed signaled it would keep the benchmark Fed funds rate at near-zero levels through at least 2023. While the Fed will likely say rates will remain on hold at least through the next two years, the central bank's updated Summary of Economic Projections this week may show one rate hike as soon as in 2023 as economic conditions improve, some economists have speculated.\"We do not expect any substantive changes to the Fed’s core policies — including forward guidance and asset purchases — at the March FOMC meeting,\" Alexander added. \"Additional fiscal stimulus and moderating new COVID-19 cases should strengthen the Fed’s near-term outlook. However, we believe a stronger economic outlook — including a slightly higher inflation trajectory — will result in the median 'dot' in 2023 showing one rate hike.\"Retail salesOne of the most closely watched economic reports this week will be the February retail sales print from the Commerce Department on Tuesday.Consensus economists are looking for retail sales to have pulled back in February after surging by the most in seven months in January. Specifically, retail sales are expected to have fallen 0.7% month-over-month, following January's 5.3% rise.\"The February retail sales report likely revealed a deep freeze in consumer spending,\" Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer wrote in a recent note. \"This decline reflects three main factors: 1) payback from the stimulus-induced gain in January; 2) delayed tax refunds; and 3) winter blizzard. The first two factors had a particularly negative impact on the lower income group.\"January's retail sales report showed a strong rebound in some of the categories hardest hit during the pandemic. Department store sales spiked by nearly 24% month-over-month, bringing these stores' year-over-year sales declines to just 3%. Electronics and appliance stores also saw a nearly 15% rise in sales at the start of the year. Retail sales overall were up 7.4% year-over-year in January, extending a stretch of year-over-year gains that began last summer, as consumers increasingly spent on goods to compensate for a lack of opportunities to spend on services like leisure travel during the pandemic.Despite the probable February drop in retail sales, the outlook for spending later this year remains strong, as a $1.9 trillion infusion of stimulus percolates through the economy and as mass vaccinations allow more spending to come back online. And consumers have been sitting on historic levels of savings as the pandemic drags out into its second year, with the personal savings rate hovering at an elevated 20.5% in January.As in-person activities begin to reopen, the degree to which consumers reopen their wallets will depend on how they view their newly amassed capital, according to Bank of America.“The spending multiplier will mainly depend on whether people view the money saved as ‘wealth’ or ‘deferred income.’ If it is treated like wealth, we would expect a very low payout in the order of four cents on the dollar. If it is seen as deferred income, the payout will be much higher, even if the money is mainly held by high-income households,” Ethan Harris, Bank of America head of global economics research, wrote in a note Friday. “We lean toward the latter. Therefore, we expect the glut of excess savings to help support exceptional growth this year in addition to the tailwinds from fiscal stimulus and an improving virus picture.”Economic calendarMonday: Empire Manufacturing, March (14.5 expected, 12.1 in February); Total Net TIC Flows, January (-$0.6 billion in December); Net Long-Term TIC Flows, January ($121.0 billion in December)Tuesday: Import price index, month-over-month, February (1.0% expected, 1.4% in January); Import price index excluding petroleum, February (0.4% expected, 0.9% in January); Import price index year-over-year, February (2.6% expected, 0.9% in January); Export price index, month-over-month, February (0.9% expected, 2.5% in January); Export price index, year-over-year, February (2.3% in January); Retail sales advance month-over-month, February (-0.7% expected, 5.3% in January); Retail sales excluding autos and gas, month-over-month, February (-1.3% expected, 6.1% in January); Retail sales control group, February (-1.1% expected, 6.0% in January); Industrial production month-over-month, February (0.4% expected, 0.9% in January); Capacity utilization, February (75.6% in February, 75.6% in January); Manufacturing production, February (0.2% expected, 1.0% in January); Business inventories, January (0.3% expected, 0.6% in December); NAHB Housing Market index, March (84 expected, 84 in February)Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended March 12 (-1.3% during prior week); Building permits, month-over-month, February (-7.2% expected, 10.4% in January); Housing starts, February (-1.0% expected, -6.0% in January); FOMC Rate DecisionThursday: Initial jobless claims, week ended March 13 (703,000 expected, 712,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended March 6 (4.144 million during prior week); Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index, March (24.0 expected, 23.1 in February); Leading Index, February (0.3% expected, 0.5% in January)Friday: N/AEarnings calendarMonday: N/ATuesday: Coupa Software (COUP), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Lennar (LEN) after market closeWednesday: Green Thumb Industries (GTII.CN) after market closeThursday: Dollar General (DG) before market open; Nike (NKE), FedEx (FDX), Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) after market closeFriday: N/A","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":322977042,"gmtCreate":1615770668386,"gmtModify":1703492681198,"author":{"id":"3559956093286560","authorId":"3559956093286560","name":"Jittertude","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c657e13d97fc390ac319b8592838950e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559956093286560","authorIdStr":"3559956093286560"},"htmlText":"no crash pls","listText":"no crash pls","text":"no crash pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322977042","repostId":2119996708,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":322956376,"gmtCreate":1615769059195,"gmtModify":1703492649841,"author":{"id":"3558097748623340","authorId":"3558097748623340","name":"LeeWan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88769849d29a340fce73355c249755a4","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3558097748623340","authorIdStr":"3558097748623340"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322956376","repostId":2119996708,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":322951088,"gmtCreate":1615768934244,"gmtModify":1703492647237,"author":{"id":"3555328083089722","authorId":"3555328083089722","name":"MarkChan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce362b41e66dea03b5ad37b4327920a7","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3555328083089722","authorIdStr":"3555328083089722"},"htmlText":"Thanks for the article!&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for the article!&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for the article!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322951088","repostId":2119996708,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":322959667,"gmtCreate":1615768840559,"gmtModify":1703492644285,"author":{"id":"3570444284639989","authorId":"3570444284639989","name":"Pangabui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32b4b9242d9aab94ee79aaaf573818e8","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570444284639989","authorIdStr":"3570444284639989"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322959667","repostId":2119996708,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":322921919,"gmtCreate":1615768305431,"gmtModify":1703492632324,"author":{"id":"3561713422683896","authorId":"3561713422683896","name":"StonkerLL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaf902e5c3ab78318f8b9d33f5a68e35","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3561713422683896","authorIdStr":"3561713422683896"},"htmlText":"Need a new Fed guy","listText":"Need a new Fed guy","text":"Need a new Fed guy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322921919","repostId":2119996708,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":322987615,"gmtCreate":1615767605937,"gmtModify":1703492612705,"author":{"id":"3577510395599113","authorId":"3577510395599113","name":"YOLO_HM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e7bd84c2cc55c1d8baa7fd8df102a86","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577510395599113","authorIdStr":"3577510395599113"},"htmlText":"Hope they don't mess up the market again.&nbsp;","listText":"Hope they don't mess up the market again.&nbsp;","text":"Hope they don't mess up the market again.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322987615","repostId":2119996708,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":65,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; 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