市场对美联储上调超额准备金与逆回购利率的预期开始降温

新浪财经2021-03-10

美联储用来控制货币政策的目标利率牢牢保持在零上方，让那些认为美联储可能需要介入市场和调整短期利率的人陷入反思。尽管当前大量美元流入导致回购及其它短期市场利率不时会变为负数，但自2月18日以来，有效联邦基金利率一直稳定在0.07%。这接近美联储0-0.25%的目标区间下限，但没有进一步跌向观察人士认为可能促使美联储采取行动的水平。巴克莱、Wrightson ICAP和美国银行策略师此前都预测美联储...

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小闸蟹
2021-03-10
小闸蟹
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勇敢的謝爾頓
2021-03-10
勇敢的謝爾頓
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云里梦里飞
2021-03-10
云里梦里飞
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Eison817
2021-03-10
Eison817
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ICAP和美国银行策略师此前都预测美联储可能最早需要在本月会议上调升两项关键利率--隔夜逆回购利率和超额准备金利率（IOER）。而现在，他们都对此更加谨慎。“眼下，调整这些利率的理由已经没有我们先前认为的那么强烈，”Wrightson ICAP经济学家Lou Crandall周一在客户报告中表示，理由是联邦基金利率很坚挺。他还指出：“即便是上调--即便只上调几个基点，都将在货币市场之外带来沟通方面的挑战。”短期利率持稳正值长期债券收益率的潜在问题越来越需要决策者解决之际。美国10年期国债收益率上周五一度升至1.62%，为2020年2月以来高位，随后出现了海外投资者的逢低买盘。不过，联邦基金利率或许只是暂时持稳。“在拜登政府刺激计划势将获得国会通过的情况下，财政部现金余额可能会下降得更快，从而更快地释放银行准备金，”巴克莱策略师Joseph Abate称。因此，策略师没有完全排除美联储在4月会议上调升这些利率的可能性，尽管联邦基金期货市场没有这方面预期。美国银行策略师Mark Cabana甚至都没有完全排除美联储在3月16至17日会议上调升这些利率的可能，不过触发条件是有重大市场走势将联邦基金利率推升到5个基点。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":323631899,"gmtCreate":1615336746611,"gmtModify":1703487485847,"author":{"id":"3562806601771624","authorId":"3562806601771624","name":"小闸蟹","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1545e896ea8561c2436876b4d538c8a4","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[无语]&nbsp;","listText":"[无语]&nbsp;","text":"[无语]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323631899","repostId":2118556640,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":323694067,"gmtCreate":1615336358059,"gmtModify":1703487479129,"author":{"id":"3572783242188448","authorId":"3572783242188448","name":"勇敢的謝爾頓","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"哈","listText":"哈","text":"哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323694067","repostId":2118556640,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":323879279,"gmtCreate":1615334823491,"gmtModify":1703487442083,"author":{"id":"3568431359478653","authorId":"3568431359478653","name":"云里梦里飞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db96756ff214a0066bf8ab2c997583b0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"搞","listText":"搞","text":"搞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323879279","repostId":2118556640,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":323828366,"gmtCreate":1615332947855,"gmtModify":1703487402295,"author":{"id":"3576889252489012","authorId":"3576889252489012","name":"Eison817","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3afe658dbab12a61559497a97c05a2b0","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"赞","listText":"赞","text":"赞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323828366","repostId":2118556640,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":18,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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