TREASURIES-Yields rise but Fed's Powell's patience tempers gains

Reuters2021-02-25

(New throughout, updates prices, market activity and comments)

By Ross Kerber

Feb 24 (Reuters) - Traders sent longer-term U.S. Treasury yields higher and steepened the yield curve on Wednesday but then pulled back some of those increases as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell again continued signaling the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged for a long time.

The benchmark 10-year yield was up less than a basis point at 1.3705% in afternoon trading. It had reached as high as 1.435% in the morning, its first time above 1.4% since a year ago, before settling as Powell gave a second day of testimony in Washington.

The bond selloffs pushed up a closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes , seen as an indicator of economic expectations. It went as wide as 130 basis points, the most since late 2016, then narrowed and last traded at 125 basis points, up 2 from Tuesday's close.

Other parts of the yield curve also reached milestone levels as investors sold longer-term U.S. debt along with some sovereigns.

Analysts said the trading reflected a range of factors including Powell's message since Tuesday that the U.S. central bank would continue to provide economic support.

Speaking to the U.S. House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, Powell said it may take more than three years to reach the Federal Reserve's inflation goals. The Fed has said it will not raise interest rates until inflation has exceeded 2%.

Patrick Leary, chief market strategist and senior trader at Incapital, said the morning trading could be seen as a sign of investor skepticism about Powell's reassurance.

"The reality is that the market is not believing what the chairman is saying... the market either doesn't believe what he's saying or it thinks that inflation could be a bigger problem," Leary said.

But the later pullback in yields suggested the initial rise was also driven by quantitative strategies before traders decided the increase was overdone and lacked a main catalyst, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York.

"The morning move got out of hand," Moya said, especially since Powell's testimony to Congress on Wednesday was little different than his message the day before to the U.S. Senate's equivalent committee. "Did we learn anything new from Powell today? No," Moya said.

The U.S Treasury sold $61 billion worth of five-year notes at a high yield of 0.621%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.24. The results were called "a bit soft" by BMO Capital Markets analyst Ben Jeffery in a note to investors, who noted the average bid-to-cover ratio was 2.45.

The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up less than a basis point at 0.125%.

The yield on 30-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities

was at 0.09% after reaching as high as 0.14. The 10-year TIPS yield was at -0.796% and the breakeven inflation rate was at 2.172%.

February 24 Wednesday 1:26PM New York / 1826 GMT

Price Current Net

Yield % Change

(bps)

Three-month bills 0.0325 0.033 0.000

Six-month bills 0.05 0.0507 -0.002

Two-year note 100 0.125 0.003

Three-year note 99-172/256 0.2358 0.013

Five-year note 98-228/256 0.6037 0.025

Seven-year note 98-76/256 1.005 0.019

10-year note 97-184/256 1.3705 0.007

20-year bond 97-24/256 2.0532 0.023

30-year bond 92-128/256 2.2189 0.020

DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS

Last (bps) Net

Change

(bps)

U.S. 2-year dollar swap 8.25 -0.75

spread

U.S. 3-year dollar swap 9.75 -0.50

spread

U.S. 5-year dollar swap 11.75 -1.50

spread

U.S. 10-year dollar swap 6.50 -1.50

spread

U.S. 30-year dollar swap -27.25 -2.50

spread

(Reporting by Ross Kerber in Boston; Additional reporting by Herbert Lash in New York; Editing by Hugh Lawson and David Gregorio)

((ross.kerber@thomsonreuters.com; (617) 856 4341; Reuters Messaging: Ross.Kerber.Reuters.com@Reuters.net))

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