剧震之下抄底还是撤离？公私募大佬做出这样的抉择

上海证券报 2021-02-26

元宵节还没过，全球市场已开启巨震模式，尤其前期风光无限的“抱团”股，这几日近乎全军溃退。电脑屏幕上，贵州茅台已经跌下2300元，中证白酒指数还在调整，有色、化工股也在下跌，2月24日，头部私募的基金经理王林（化名）盯着盘，下出了买入的交易指令。“我觉得A股系统性下跌的可能性较小，因此近期的调整可能是阶段性建仓的好机会，老产品也没必要降低仓位，最近更重要的变化是，更愿意去寻找一些没那么多人关注的股票...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

Fred_6810
2021-02-26
Fred_6810
对象起舞，你们都视而不见吗？
真的英雄
2021-02-26
真的英雄
老百姓幸福吗，基尼指数都爆了
猛逃
2021-02-26
猛逃
卖拐了，拐卖了……[财迷]
悠悠然的胖砸
2021-02-26
悠悠然的胖砸
抄一天抄一点
南无阿弥
2021-02-26
南无阿弥
还瞎吹
钞能力系Me
2021-02-26
钞能力系Me
讲左等于无讲，50/50

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2114329408?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2021-02-26 10:43","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","id":"2114329408","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"剧震之下抄底还是撤离？公私募大佬做出这样的抉择","media":"上海证券报 ","content":"<div>\n<p>元宵节还没过，全球市场已开启巨震模式，尤其前期风光无限的“抱团”股，这几日近乎全军溃退。电脑屏幕上，贵州茅台已经跌下2300元，中证白酒指数还在调整，有色、化工股也在下跌，2月24日，头部私募的基金经理王林（化名）盯着盘，下出了买入的交易指令。“我觉得A股系统性下跌的可能性较小，因此近期的调整可能是阶段性建仓的好机会，老产品也没必要降低仓位，最近更重要的变化是，更愿意去寻找一些没那么多人关注的股票...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2021-02-26/doc-ikftssap8801297.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"sina","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>剧震之下抄底还是撤离？公私募大佬做出这样的抉择</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n剧震之下抄底还是撤离？公私募大佬做出这样的抉择\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-26 10:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2021-02-26/doc-ikftssap8801297.shtml><strong>上海证券报 </strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>元宵节还没过，全球市场已开启巨震模式，尤其前期风光无限的“抱团”股，这几日近乎全军溃退。电脑屏幕上，贵州茅台已经跌下2300元，中证白酒指数还在调整，有色、化工股也在下跌，2月24日，头部私募的基金经理王林（化名）盯着盘，下出了买入的交易指令。“我觉得A股系统性下跌的可能性较小，因此近期的调整可能是阶段性建仓的好机会，老产品也没必要降低仓位，最近更重要的变化是，更愿意去寻找一些没那么多人关注的股票...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2021-02-26/doc-ikftssap8801297.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"000001.SH","symbol_name":"上证指数","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2021-02-26/doc-ikftssap8801297.shtml","article_id":"2114329408","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7"],"rights":{"source":"sina","url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2021-02-26/doc-ikftssap8801297.shtml","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}.art_tit_h1{#titleStyle#}a{#lv2TextColor#}.art_time, .art_cite{#sourceStyle#;} .art_cite{margin-left: 3px;}","selectors":".module-article, article","filters":"header, .voice2, .tags, #norm_qrcode_link_auto, .unfold-box, .action","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2114329408","pubTimestamp":1614307406,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"sina","name":"sina"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"元宵节还没过，全球市场已开启巨震模式，尤其前期风光无限的“抱团”股，这几日近乎全军溃退。电脑屏幕上，$贵州茅台$已经跌下2300元，中证白酒指数还在调整，有色、化工股也在下跌，2月24日，头部私募的基金经理王林（化名）盯着盘，下出了买入的交易指令。多位业内人士表示，在抱团股波动加剧的过程中，机构的分歧在逐渐加大。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"sina.com.cn","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"translate_title":"Bargain hunting or evacuation? Under the dramatic shock of the group stocks, the public and private equity bosses made such a choice","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cf9546e18ee45ac3a234f50467c6550","symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9,"HSI":0.9},"content_text":"元宵节还没过，全球市场已开启巨震模式，尤其前期风光无限的“抱团”股，这几日近乎全军溃退。电脑屏幕上，贵州茅台已经跌下2300元，中证白酒指数还在调整，有色、化工股也在下跌，2月24日，头部私募的基金经理王林（化名）盯着盘，下出了买入的交易指令。“我觉得A股系统性下跌的可能性较小，因此近期的调整可能是阶段性建仓的好机会，老产品也没必要降低仓位，最近更重要的变化是，更愿意去寻找一些没那么多人关注的股票。”王林直言。然而，不同于王林的乐观预判，董承非在1月末的内部交流分享会中表示，对2021年持悲观态度，已经在做防御性动作。多位业内人士表示，在抱团股波动加剧的过程中，机构的分歧在逐渐加大。有人陆续撤退，有人则聚焦“交易不太拥挤”的标的，比如银行、地产等低估值品种，以及存在积极变化的中小市值股票。机构重仓股迅速调整近期A股波动加剧，前期机构抱团的白酒股跌幅最为明显。Choice数据显示，截至2月25日，中证白酒指数牛年以来的跌幅超过18%，贵州茅台股价更是迅速跌至2150元。更令人颇感意外的是，有望成为报团新方向的周期龙头股近日也开始回调，万华化学连续4个交易日下跌。“白酒板块节后的下跌是能够理解的。” 同犇投资总经理、投资总监童驯分析称，尽管春节假期结束前白酒销售情况亮眼，但同期大宗商品的基本面边际变化更加超预期，所以节后资金迅速转向有色、化工等周期板块，而且从历史经验来看，春节后白酒进入了销售淡季，因此股价也会有所体现。另外，节后美国的10年期国债收益率上升趋势较为明显，市场对于高估值标的将更加谨慎。一位老牌私募基金经理也认为，在流动性或边际收紧的预期影响中，市场热点更容易在估值相对合理的板块中轮换，贵州茅台在内的多数龙头标的估值已经处于高位，调整属于正常情况，而且部分周期板块今年以来涨幅也超出了市场预期，因此股价有所波动。基金经理调仓动作显分歧面对抱团股的剧烈调整，沪上一位公募研究员直言，近期多位基金经理已经调仓，但调仓方向不尽相同。天风证券数据显示，截至2月24日，最近3个交易日公募基金的模拟收益与真实收益之间的偏离相比于2月初显著放大。具体来看，2月初偏离值在0.5%以内的基金样本超过35%，最近3个交易日偏离值在 0.5%以内的样本数量占比已经下降到约只有25%，可见当前已有公募基金开展一定程度的调仓行为。沪上一位头部私募创始人认为，“经历过去年的结构性行情，机构抱团的消费、新能源等板块的龙头股交易已经非常拥挤，在全球经济复苏的过程中，有色、化工等顺周期板块仍然具备机会，尤其是其中可能产生积极变化的中小市值股票，值得关注。”一位公募基金经理直言，预计铜、铝等基本金属价格韧性强于预期，但受季节性因素可能有所波动，所以近期下调了有色金属板块的仓位。另外，基于电动车相关的锂、钴、镍等品种持续涨价，等待未来价格水平超预期时点，才会酌情买入相关板块的股票。另外，近期基金经理对于“防守”还是“进攻”也存在分歧。比如，董承非在1月末的内部交流分享会议中表示，年初市场呈现明显躁动行情，而且市场已经脱离基本面进入资金正反馈过程，所以对2021年全年比较悲观，已经在做一些预防性的动作。王林却认为，全球经济复苏进程刚刚开始，市场流动性依然较为宽裕，市场系统性下跌的可能性较小，后续仍将维持高仓位运作。港股投资机会惹争议对于港股市场，公私募基金经理的观点也不尽相同。前海开源基金联席董事长王宏远表示，以今年这一维度来看，港股会是全球主要资本市场中表现最好的市场之一，有望走赢美股10-20个百分点，同时也会强于A股。格雷资产总经理张可兴也直言，今年会把投资的重心选在港股市场，目前港股资产已经占格雷产品仓位六成以上。今年的港股市场是汇聚天时、地利、人和的投资机会，持续时长将超过一年。主要原因在于港股2018-2020年连续三年跑输A股，即便去年流动性宽裕，互联网行业的优质龙头去年涨幅相较于A股的科技股也不算明显，因此，如果以10年期视角看，港股的机会才刚开始。但董承非却表示，港股大家比较看好，但未必结果会好。具体来说，现在看好港股的人，逻辑是A股流动性外溢，但如果A股市场有变化，港股作为离岸市场，不一定会有很好的结果。上海钦沐资产合伙人于洋也提示称，港股的很多优质标的相比于A股优势较小，只是交易相对没有那么拥挤。如果大量南向资金涌入，其交易优势也会逐渐消失。而且，由于美国流动性可能会收紧，港股的风险更大，因此投资者在投资港股时需要更加谨慎。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":368629441,"gmtCreate":1614319684783,"gmtModify":1703476307339,"author":{"id":"3563140991934227","authorId":"3563140991934227","name":"Fred_6810","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbe236f23155302a4dcecbf04d2e9040","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"对象起舞，你们都视而不见吗？","listText":"对象起舞，你们都视而不见吗？","text":"对象起舞，你们都视而不见吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368629441","repostId":2114329408,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":368695369,"gmtCreate":1614315121951,"gmtModify":1703476246036,"author":{"id":"3472509891364152","authorId":"3472509891364152","name":"真的英雄","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/840859d8f7d3c5c63498b7f330b98705","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f4db5a25402cce463d975948213b15","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"老百姓幸福吗，基尼指数都爆了","listText":"老百姓幸福吗，基尼指数都爆了","text":"老百姓幸福吗，基尼指数都爆了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368695369","repostId":2114329408,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":368692157,"gmtCreate":1614315006179,"gmtModify":1703476244493,"author":{"id":"3518527627041174","authorId":"3518527627041174","name":"猛逃","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"卖拐了，拐卖了……[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"卖拐了，拐卖了……[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"卖拐了，拐卖了……[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368692157","repostId":2114329408,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":368872620,"gmtCreate":1614313293960,"gmtModify":1703476215904,"author":{"id":"11199475574232","authorId":"11199475574232","name":"悠悠然的胖砸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6633f0c4e40a342e8ecbc28af7be0ac","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"抄 一天抄一点","listText":"抄 一天抄一点","text":"抄 一天抄一点","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368872620","repostId":2114329408,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":368871003,"gmtCreate":1614312894402,"gmtModify":1703476210433,"author":{"id":"3562273490637232","authorId":"3562273490637232","name":"南无阿弥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef653790e2580d65ab336d9fa77f30ff","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"还瞎吹","listText":"还瞎吹","text":"还瞎吹","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368871003","repostId":2114329408,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":368879776,"gmtCreate":1614312747795,"gmtModify":1703476209047,"author":{"id":"3437211315837355","authorId":"3437211315837355","name":"钞能力系Me","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6a07e4e5031f5f6b6d949221547cf91","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"讲左等于无讲，50/50","listText":"讲左等于无讲，50/50","text":"讲左等于无讲，50/50","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368879776","repostId":2114329408,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":29,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.1","shortVersion":"4.25.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2114329408"}