美股是否患有联储依赖症？

李超宏观研究与...2021-02-24

内容摘要 >> 报告导读/核心观点近期通胀预期上升引发投资者对联储政策转向担忧，美股价格受流动性预期反复影响波动较大。我们继续维持Q2可能出现宽松拐点的判断，预计美股将对美联储Q2的前瞻指引保持高度敏感，议息会议前后资产波幅将明显扩大；美债收益率短期仍将上行。>> 美股连续上涨后，投资者开始担心当前估值水平的可持续性美股估值当前处于历史高位，纳斯达克市盈率水平达70，是2003年后最高水平；道琼斯...

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細峯
2021-02-25
細峯
[得意]
龙腾虎乐
2021-02-24
龙腾虎乐
这两年不是一直是这样吗？要不是美联储持续印钞，美股肯定跌惨了😭股市跌对经济更不好，还不如继续印钞呢[强] [强] [强]

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美股担心的不是通胀，而是通胀可能导致美联储政策收紧投资者当前对美股外生因素的忧虑并非来自通胀本身，更多源自于通胀持续升温后美联储潜在的政策转向风险。2020年8月前，美联储对于通胀和失业率两项政策目标均有清晰的阈值指引，前者锚定2%的PCE增速，后者根据经济动态调整并在议息会议的经济预测中发布。自美联储在2020年8月转向平均通胀目标制后，一直未就该项制度的实施细则给予明确指引，这也导致投资者对于美联储的通胀容忍度处于揣测状态。伴随美债收益率的快速上行，当前美国10年期国债隐含的长期通胀预期已达2.16%，逼近过去8年最高水平，高于美联储的平均通胀目标水平，短期内可能仍有进一步上行趋势，这也使得投资者对于通胀预期上行引发美联储政策转向的担忧持续升温。>> 鲍威尔听证会鸽声嘹亮优于此前市场预期，会后美股、贵金属V形反转伴随近期通胀预期迅速上升，博弈联储政策转向的投资者正在增加。从CME期货隐含加息概率看，4月28日联储加息25BP概率已升至4.1%，12月15日加息25BP概率升至10.1%，加息50BP概率升至0.5%。虽然概率极低，且年内大概率不会有加息发生，但2021年以来联邦基金利率期货的走势仍说明市场预期正在边际转向（2020年末尚无资金博弈2021年加息概率）。此外，近期部分联储官员的讲话也传达出年内宽松缩量的信号。在此背景下，投资者逐渐计价美联储转向预期，美股也在本周持续下挫，但鲍威尔在2月22日国会听证会中表态仍保持鸽派，继续重申两大经济目标出现实质性好转前将继续维持当前购债速度，且当前的经济状况距离“实质性好转”仍需时日。这一表态对于量化宽松的态度优于此前市场预期，发声后美股和金银价格均出现V形反转。>> 美股预计对美联储二季度预期引导高度敏感，议息会议前资产价格波幅预计放大对于美联储货币政策，我们继续维持此前判断：Q1维持当前速度扩表，Q2可能迎来宽松速率的拐点，下半年可能逐步停止扩表并通过扭曲操作（买入长债并卖出等量短债）重点控制长端收益率。宽松缩量早于市场预期的核心因素是财政淤积资金支出将带来1.2万亿美元基础货币增量，这一规模与2020年QE带来的基础货币增量几近相当，美联储持续宽松必要性下降。节奏方面主要配合是疫苗注射进度以及群体免疫的时点开展。在此情况下，美股预计对美联储二季度的前瞻指引保持高度敏感，会议前后资产价格波幅可能明显放大。近期美债收益率快速上行符合我们此前判断，即上半年复苏预期叠加财政刺激加码加速推升收益率上行；下半年经济修复斜率走平叠加美联储扭曲操作，收益率趋于震荡。Q2末10年国债收益率可能逼近年内高点，可能为1.5%-1.6%。>> A股更受美股影响而非美债收益率从传导路径上看，美债收益率影响A股的直接传导方式是美债上行影响美股走势继而连带对A股形成压力；并非美债收益率上行导致中美利差收窄，扰动国际收支继而影响我国央行利率决策。换言之，直接影响A股走势的是美股而非美债收益率，A股投资者应该更多关注美股而非美债走势。风险提示 疫苗注射进度不及预期导致宽松周期超预期延长","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":361364996,"gmtCreate":1614207529215,"gmtModify":1634550747518,"author":{"id":"3561900170910857","authorId":"3561900170910857","name":"細峯","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438c1d683ca90894165c3e844fafa1c2","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3561900170910857","authorIdStr":"3561900170910857"},"htmlText":"[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"[得意]&nbsp;","text":"[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361364996","repostId":2113357913,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":361063427,"gmtCreate":1614179492169,"gmtModify":1614179492169,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/622fc56f7e67b5729addb4e78a195511","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3482550532367433","authorIdStr":"3482550532367433"},"htmlText":"这两年不是一直是这样吗？要不是美联储持续印钞，美股肯定跌惨了😭股市跌对经济更不好，还不如继续印钞呢[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","listText":"这两年不是一直是这样吗？要不是美联储持续印钞，美股肯定跌惨了😭股市跌对经济更不好，还不如继续印钞呢[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","text":"这两年不是一直是这样吗？要不是美联储持续印钞，美股肯定跌惨了😭股市跌对经济更不好，还不如继续印钞呢[强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361063427","repostId":2113357913,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":12,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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