“造车新势力”蔚来遭做空：无需考虑盈利能力，投资者卖出正当时

市值风云2020-11-16

作者| 扶苏流程编辑 | 小白“即使目前特斯拉官方给出的国产Model Y预估价接近50万，但包括香橼在内的多家机构均认为Model Y最终会大幅降价，这将严重冲击蔚来ES6的市场。”蔚来（NIO.N），一向被视为美股市场上“造车新势力”里的中概股龙头。上周五，美国做空机构香橼做空蔚来，并给予仅25美元的目标价。这意味着，香橼给出的目标价较蔚来目前的股价几乎腰斩。（来源：Google ...

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免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

昨夜梦见你
2020-11-16
昨夜梦见你
等着打脸吧
昨夜梦见你
2020-11-16
昨夜梦见你
你傻吧
Godlike
2020-11-16
Godlike
没有水平不要学人家写文章，香橼讲蔚来的空头仓位少是指，预测不具备特斯拉当时那样轧空踩踏上涨的情况。但是特斯拉在发生大幅回调后再次上涨并创新高，二次上涨的动能并非轧空，而是市场的估值模型发生了变化
度度假
2020-11-16
度度假
除了蔚来没有更好的股票了。蔚来正在颠覆行业呢！还有哪个企业比蔚来更具颠覆性？
- 度度假:
  拭目以待！
- 五撇须:
  只凭一两款车颠覆行业？特斯拉才是这个行业的颠覆者，在中国suv、小轿车打败特斯拉再来说，连盈利都还遥远着

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Finance）然而，就在2018年11月，当时蔚来刚上市不久（注：蔚来于2018年9月上市），股价仍在7美元的时候，香橼曾表示力挺蔚来。香橼当时称，蔚来的股价涨至12美元应该“几乎没有阻力”，这一目标价较当时股价溢价近70%。香橼为何在2年后转变了对蔚来的看法？香橼的理由是，蔚来正处于一个未知的时点上，无论从目前在中国电动汽车市场的地位，还是从近期的前景来看，其当前股价都是不合理的。一、预计Model Y降价将严重冲击蔚来香橼认为，虽然中国电动汽车制造商的股票已经成为资本市场上的热点，但这并不表明投资者对这个以降价为特征的市场有着清晰的理解。香橼称，蔚来的股价在当前水平上是脆弱的，其首要的一个冲击将来自特斯拉（TSLA.O）Model Y在中国的降价，这将成为蔚来ES6车型的一大威胁。根据特斯拉中国官网，国产Model Y车型将推出长续航版和Performance高性能版两个版本，预估价分别为48.8万元和53.5万元，但特斯拉标明此价格仅为预估。目前，市场上有大量观点认为特斯拉最终会大幅降低Model Y的定价。香橼引用了德意志银行近日发布的报告，预测Model Y的降价将影响到蔚来的订单增长势头。德意志银行报告称：“我们继续看到一些风险，即特斯拉可能会大幅降低其国产ModelY型汽车的价格，从48.8万元人民币（约7.3万美元）降至30万元左右（约5.6万-5.8万美元)。“这可能会影响近期市场情绪，并减缓蔚来的订单增长势头，因为它将是蔚来EC6和ES6的直接竞争对手。”（来源：Citron Research）香橼还引用了中国分析师的观念。国内分析师认为，Model Y的定价将大大低于关键价格点，这将对蔚来构成威胁。国内一家券商最近预测，特斯拉在中国市场的持续扩张是非常引人注目的。该券商在最近发布的一份研究报告中指出，特斯拉将成本节约的成果让利给客户的策略可能会导致国产Model Y 的定价非常优惠，为27.5万元（约4.1万美元)。（来源：Citron Research）香橼还引用了彭博社的分析。彭博情报（Bloomberg Intelligence）分析师在11月11日的一份报告中表示:“中国可能即将出现另一波高档电动汽车降价潮，这可能引发一场激烈的竞争。”同时，以特斯拉为参考，香橼认为蔚来当前的估值倍数明显过高。当前，蔚来的EV/Sales倍数为17-18倍，而特斯拉为9倍。这意味着，蔚来正在以两倍于特斯拉的估值水平的价格进行交易，这是其历史上相较于特斯拉的最大溢价水平。而蔚来的市场表现也不如特斯拉。特斯拉占据了美国电动汽车市场45%的份额，而蔚来今天面临着激烈的竞争，在中国电动汽车市场仅占3%的份额。就中国市场而言，特斯拉10月份在中国的汽车销量也是蔚来的两倍多。二、蔚来的空头仓位降至历史最低香橼做空蔚来的另一个理由，是其目前的流通股结构。香橼指出，蔚来目前的空头仓位降到了两年来的最低水平。（来源：Citron Research）老铁们看到这里或许疑惑：为何空头仓位低会成为做空机构的看空理由？香橼在本篇做空报告中并未对此加以解释，但结合香橼2年前看多蔚来的报告，我们便能理解香橼做空或做多的逻辑。蔚来在上市的当年吸引了大量的卖空者。美国美林银行当时估计，蔚来的“主动流通股”（即非被动投资者持有的股票）的空头比例可能超过100%。香橼当时认为，蔚来上市时的情况与特斯拉很像。特斯拉曾经长期是卖空者的热门标的。顺便一提，香橼同样曾是特斯拉的著名大空头，但特斯拉一路飙升的股价让香橼改变了态度，最终转而强烈看多特斯拉。香橼在2年前看多蔚来的报告中称，蔚来拥有一批类似特斯拉的狂热追随者，以及一批忠实的长期投资者。香橼当时表示，其从做空特斯拉的过程中学到的教训表明，像蔚来这样的颠覆性公司的投资者，要比卖空者有更多的耐心。而现在，香橼再次提到空头仓位这一点，或许是在表达这样的一种投资观点：当一个公司的空头头寸大幅降低时，说明该公司的定价正在回归其价值本身。结论香橼称：“任何现在购买蔚来股票的人都不是在购买一家公司或其前景，而是在购买屏幕上移动的三个字母。”即香橼认为，在当前时点购买蔚来的股票，有很大的投机性。这并不代表香橼否认国内电动汽车的热潮。相反，香橼认同电动汽车是国内的一大趋势，但认为投资者有更好的选择。比如香橼提到的比亚迪(002594.SZ)的EV/Sales倍数只有3倍，而蔚来高达17倍。香橼最后表示，这篇做空报告甚至无需讨论蔚来的盈利能力，现在是投资者离开蔚来，去寻找下一个颠覆性创新技术公司的时候了。免责声明：本报告（文章）是基于上市公司的公众公司属性、以上市公司根据其法定义务公开披露的信息（包括但不限于临时公告、定期报告和官方互动平台等）为核心依据的独立第三方研究；市值风云力求报告（文章）所载内容及观点客观公正，但不保证其准确性、完整性、及时性等；本报告（文章）中的信息或所表述的意见不构成任何投资建议，市值风云不对因使用本报告所采取的任何行动承担任何责任。以上内容为市值风云APP原创未获授权  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