最近好票也开始亏钱，港股打新究竟该怎么打？

智通财经网2020-10-19

本文来自 “懒猪捡财”港股打新最近一段时间好票开始出现亏钱的情况，特别是盲目融资打新，更是送人头，所以有必要在这里整理归纳提醒下大家，这种亏钱现象主要体现在大甲、乙组，新股破发倒是少，就是涨幅盈利无法覆盖融资成本。几个现象这里有几个特别明显的现象，可以跟大家分享下：孖展额度从抢额度到额度滞销农夫山泉那会几乎是所有人都在抢额度，甚至还出现很多预定了乙组被券商放鸽子的情况，市场上玩家瞬间觉得额度是...

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精彩评论

LucyDMQ
2020-10-19
LucyDMQ
打新股也要谨慎了
依栏听雨声
2020-10-19
依栏听雨声
怎么关注
小米的韭菜1号
2020-10-19
小米的韭菜1号
港股打新为什么强制融资？
米娜的猫
2020-10-19
米娜的猫
也是要埋人的节奏
CC小麦
2020-10-19
CC小麦
2000到2800是40%

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“懒猪捡财”港股打新最近一段时间好票开始出现亏钱的情况，特别是盲目融资打新，更是送人头，所以有必要在这里整理归纳提醒下大家，这种亏钱现象主要体现在大甲、乙组，新股破发倒是少，就是涨幅盈利无法覆盖融资成本。几个现象这里有几个特别明显的现象，可以跟大家分享下：孖展额度从抢额度到额度滞销农夫山泉那会几乎是所有人都在抢额度，甚至还出现很多预定了乙组被券商放鸽子的情况，市场上玩家瞬间觉得额度是一个很宝贵的东西，给额度约等于送钱，结果到了农夫山泉首日，对于乙组来说，如果暗盘没有早点走，首日几乎是没有赚到钱，打和点高达50%，再到后面的新股，除了明源云稍微好点，其他热门的新股表现都不尽人意，最近先声药业还出现了额度滞销的情况，可见市场的热度在快速冷却。后面一段时间，除非是发行估值有比较大的空间或者新股撞车，否则额度没大家想象的那么紧张。中签率每况愈下去年下半年，一些热门的票中签率还在30%以上，虽然涨幅没有今年二季度那么夸张，平均也就20%-30%，但对于多宝箱免费抽奖的用户来，很容易就能抽到奖赚取收益。今年上半年康方生物、沛嘉医疗，中签率已经降到10%，但这会新股的涨幅可比去年高多了，随便一开盘就是50%+，所以大家开始热衷于抢额度加杠杆，付出一点成本，但提高中签率，一旦中签了，成本也不过是毛毛雨。再来的就是农夫山泉把打新人数推高到70万人，已经比上半年增加了一倍，其实打新的人数不超过30万的话，中签率相对比较可观，后面的几只票大家也看到了，中签率福禄2%，嘉和3%，云顶2%，惨不忍睹，如果你是多个账户融资几十手未中签的，也很正常，后面应该考虑转变思路，控制一下成本。发行估值越来越贵，暗盘高开低走福禄控股、乐享互动、嘉和生物、再到前两天卓越商企，这种现象出现的频率越来越高，主要原因还是发行估值给高了，留给二级市场的空间不大，暗盘就拼谁跑得快，跑得慢的不止不赚钱，甚至还要倒贴钱。卓越商企暗盘嘉和生物暗盘几个阶段之前在网上看到一段话，有关打新的几个阶段：第一阶段，市场人气低迷，新股定价比较低，因为机构都不愿意出高价。这样的新股上市以后，开盘价涨幅也不大，但是容易在二级市场上炒起来，从而出现大妖股，炒新股的爆赚。第二阶段，新股的定价依然不太高，因为机构反应没有那么快，但是二级市场的反应是很快的，之前低价卖掉新股的人，看到自己卖出去的新股变成妖股后痛心疾首，于是大家的整体预期变高，新股的开盘价就变得很高，打新中签的人爆赚，炒新吃肉空间就变少了。第三阶段，机构看到新股的开盘价越来越高，于是他们就为了争抢筹码不断的抬高IPO定价的报价，最终导致新股的发行价越来越高。到了这个阶段，最占便宜的是融资的企业，而报价的机构、中签的股民、炒新的股民都越来越难挣钱。第四阶段，随着开盘价越来越高，终于二级市场上炒新的股民不干了。新股一开盘就向下跌，谁买套谁，于是开盘价涨幅越来越低，打新收益越来越少。第五阶段，终于，有新股上市第1天就跌破发行价，于是打新的情绪跌入冰点，股民谨慎申购，机构不愿意报高价。到了这里，再从第一阶段重复循环。现阶段报价越来越高，一开盘就下跌，明显处于第三第四阶段，等哪天到了第五阶段，新股破发，市场的情绪会加剧下跌，打新进入冷淡期。警惕几种打新策略后面新股应该怎么打对于发行估值贵的离谱的，基本没有水位留给二级市场的，打一点玩玩就行，不太适合大力参与，再有一点更重要的，也是经常提醒的，打新更多的是融资费用亏钱，有几类融资现象值得警惕：1.顶头锤和大乙，顶头锤的打和点通常是最高的，通常在30%-50%，如果像生物-B这种募资30亿港币左右，货不是很多的，通常都要50%左右，发行估值稍微高点分分钟亏钱。以嘉和生物为例，暗盘收盘已亏接近20%，货少的热门股，我都是建议乙组打乙头就行，到了大乙和顶头锤，中签率下降明显，打和点急剧上升，不如多乙头效果好2.融资10-20手的甲，中签率虽然有提高，但是整体中签率还是低卓越的中签率，前10手基本没有增长，融资几乎等于送钱。再看看嘉和这种中签率只有3%的，融10手中签率10%不到，20手也不过15%，虽然10%对比3%是有明显增长，但整体中签率还是低，主要还是看运气成分。3.一手融，最近不少券商开一手融专场，就是只能融资一手不能更多，花100块追求个2%的中签率，除非是单价高期望涨幅也高，否则非常不划算。建议的几种打新策略后续的几点打新策略，选股不用说，还是按照以前的选股逻辑，再考虑下发行估值，对比其他上市的可比公司，市场情绪好的时候可少考虑估值，但现在不行，另外资金配置的几个方向：1.甲组以现金申购为主，我一直没做什么大甲，大甲界限其实很模糊，8-11万，每次打新融资100-200万起，遇到热门的不一定能保证中签，遇到普通的又资金利用率不高，那还不如多个小甲，资金再往上走还不如乙，毕竟很多券商的额度都是优先乙组，再给甲组，所以很多不一定有20倍2.乙组以乙头为主，原因刚才也说了，热票中签率急剧下降，大乙甚至顶头锤打和点高达50%，普通的票券商不一定敢给20倍，能上乙组就不错了，更高的也不用考虑。无论现在港股打新处于哪个阶段，盈利的人肯定是一直在关注这个市场并参与其中的人，不断调整策略也养成打新的良好心态，市场好多赚钱，市场不好尽量做到少亏钱，喝点小汤，不比A股打新差，而不是听到盈利就进场，听到破发亏损就离场的人，最终只会吃别人剩下的。最后看下下周几个新股撞车，药明巨诺=世茂服务>合景悠活，巨诺的期望涨幅肯定是要比世茂高不少的，但目前看到的消息募资金额应该只有10亿港币，中签率应该极低，所以写了等于。蚂蚁最新消息：据悉，如蚂蚁下周顺利通过上市聆讯，暂计划最快10月27日的一周招股，于11月首周挂牌，意味由定价至挂牌日，有机会跨越11月3日美国大选；惟以上仅是初步时间表，最终可能有变。蚂蚁估值从最初的2000亿美金涨到2800亿美金，还没上市就已经涨了17%","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":303887349,"gmtCreate":1603097380681,"gmtModify":1703828630522,"author":{"id":"3561299121942617","authorId":"3561299121942617","name":"LucyDMQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4910f31435b1447be67c63083335b371","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3561299121942617","authorIdStr":"3561299121942617"},"htmlText":"打新股也要谨慎了","listText":"打新股也要谨慎了","text":"打新股也要谨慎了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/303887349","repostId":2076379519,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":303835372,"gmtCreate":1603090019096,"gmtModify":1703828599387,"author":{"id":"3555991439321453","authorId":"3555991439321453","name":"依栏听雨声","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3b18f9f4663250bcb6dbec37333e0aa","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6295840391b9cdc17115677ba51429c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3555991439321453","authorIdStr":"3555991439321453"},"htmlText":"怎么关注","listText":"怎么关注","text":"怎么关注","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/303835372","repostId":2076379519,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":303897962,"gmtCreate":1603086811056,"gmtModify":1703828586886,"author":{"id":"3469164281621359","authorId":"3469164281621359","name":"小米的韭菜1号","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b8820b392028ef580ce3c3a04f35605","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3469164281621359","authorIdStr":"3469164281621359"},"htmlText":"港股打新为什么强制融资？","listText":"港股打新为什么强制融资？","text":"港股打新为什么强制融资？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/303897962","repostId":2076379519,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":303892091,"gmtCreate":1603085851213,"gmtModify":1703828583070,"author":{"id":"339221158481568","authorId":"339221158481568","name":"米娜的猫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f6c67c0e0ed23021c97b4292467f80f","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,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