The Play On Axsome Therapeutics

Bret Jensen2020-10-03

SummaryToday, we revisit Axsome Therapeutics for an in-depth analysis.Axsome was an original member of the Busted IPO Forum model portfolio and the best performing biotech stock of 2019.However, the ...

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A quick investment case for Axsome is presented in the paragraphs below.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"AXSM":"Axsome Therapeutics, Inc."},"translate_title":"关于轴索治疗学的研究","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AXSM":0.9},"content_text":"SummaryToday, we revisit Axsome Therapeutics for an in-depth analysis.Axsome was an original member of the Busted IPO Forum model portfolio and the best performing biotech stock of 2019.However, the shares are down 30% in 2020. A quick investment case for Axsome is presented in the paragraphs below.Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it.\"― Laurence J. Peter, The Peter Principle Today, we revisit Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM). This name was an original member of the Busted IPO Forum model portfolio and the best performing biotech stock in the market in 2019 with better than a 3,000% return. It has been a much tougher slog for the shares in 2020. A full investment analysis follows below. Company Overview  Axsome Therapeutics is a late stage developmental company based in New York City that is focused on developmental numerous compounds to treat various Central Nervous System {CNS) conditions. The stock has declined some 30% so far in 2020, and now has an approximate market capitalization of $2.7 billion Pipeline  Source: Company Presentation The company has multiple 'shots on goal' and upcoming potential catalysts on the horizon. Axsome should file a new drug application in the fourth quarter of this year for its lead drug candidate AXS-05, for the treatment of major depressive disorder, after several successful trial studies. The latest data was posted in September. This should be the first of many potentially lucrative FDA approvals (see above) for this compound, as well as others Axsome has in its late stage pipeline.\n In early August, another compound 'AXS-12' was Axsome's third drug candidate to receive a Breakthrough Therapy designation from the FDA. This one for the treatment of cataplexy in patients with narcolepsy. After meeting with the government agency, Axsome stated it was pursuing an accelerated development plan for AXS-12 ten days ago.  Source: Company Presentation In mid-August, the company completed a successful pre-New Drug Application [NDA] meeting with the FDA for AXS-07 for the acute treatment of migraine. Axsome has confirmed pivotal development status and plan for AXS-05 in the treatment of Alzheimer's disease [AD] agitation following a successful Breakthrough Therapy meeting with the FDA. The company posted positive late stage trial results for this indication last week. Analyst Commentary & Balance Sheet Since late last year, 10 analyst firms, including Cowen & Co. and Piper Sandler, have assigned or reissued Buy ratings on the stock. Price targets proffered have ranged from $115 to $210. Over the past month, Morgan Stanley ($102 price target), H.C. Wainwright ($210 price target) and William Blair have reissued Buy ratings on Axsome. BAML seems to be the lone holdout in the analyst community on the stock, initiating the stock as a Sell earlier in the week. Axsome ended its latest quarter with just under $200 million in cash and marketable securities on its balance sheet. The company is burning approximately $20 million to $25 million of cash per quarter and is well funded into 2022. At end of September, the company entered into a $225 million debt facility with Hercules Capital. The agreement calls for '$60 million that may be drawn at closing; $115 million at the company's option, in three separate tranches; additional $50 million is subject to Hercules's approval, to support future strategic initiatives'. The company is now beyond well-funded for the foreseeable future.\n Verdict The company has several potentially lucrative compounds in late stage development. The stock enjoys strong analyst support and should be bolstered by upcoming potential catalysts. Axsome has the necessary cash runway to get to commercial launch but probably will raise some additional funding after getting through key milestones like FDA approval. The stock looks undervalued compared to the potential peak sales of its late-stage assets after its recent pullback. The options on the equity are both lucrative and liquid, making it a good covered call candidate and that is the way I am playing this name within my own portfolio, utilizing just out of the money long dated option strikes. Stupidity isn't punishable by death. If it was, there would be a heck of a population drop.\"― Laurell K. Hamilton, The Laughing Corpse Bret Jensen is the Founder of and authors articles for the Biotech Forum, Busted IPO Forum, and Insiders Forum\nLive Chat on The Biotech Forum has been dominated by discussion of lucrative buy-write or covered call opportunities on selected biotech stocks over the past several months. To see what I and the other season biotech investors are targeting as trading ideas real-time, just join our community at The Biotech Forum by clicking HERE. Disclosure: I am/we are long AXSM. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2072783033"}