华尔街空头已“绝种”，美股市场泡沫论也退场了吗？

新浪财经2020-08-24

在过去的一个季度中，美股市场上几乎所有原本看空的基金经理都开始看涨，市场情绪极其乐观。简单来说，“空头都死绝了”。3月暴跌见底以来，标普500指数已经反弹了52%，整体市值增加了13万亿美元，约是2019年美国GDP的近7成。在如此剧烈的反弹面前，空头们纷纷黯然退场。据彭博报道，目前美国对冲基金的空头头寸是16年来的最低水平。尽管面对经济衰退、企业利润停滞和总统大选前景不佳等不利因素，原本持怀疑...

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精彩评论

秦建侠
2020-08-25
秦建侠
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看
研融
2020-08-24
研融
今晚暴跌
研融
2020-08-24
研融
疯子
T000002289
2020-08-24
T000002289
泡沫个球，比我强大的打压加收购，哪个能玩的过老美的牛逼，老美军事强会一直牛逼下去
Alpha策略者
2020-08-24
Alpha策略者
确实如此

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Has the bubble theory in the U.S. Stock market exited?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f4b27ca3592441bf32659623cb5a0eb","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".INX":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SSO":0.9},"content_text":"在过去的一个季度中，美股市场上几乎所有原本看空的基金经理都开始看涨，市场情绪极其乐观。简单来说，“空头都死绝了”。3月暴跌见底以来，标普500指数已经反弹了52%，整体市值增加了13万亿美元，约是2019年美国GDP的近7成。在如此剧烈的反弹面前，空头们纷纷黯然退场。据彭博报道，目前美国对冲基金的空头头寸是16年来的最低水平。尽管面对经济衰退、企业利润停滞和总统大选前景不佳等不利因素，原本持怀疑态度的专业投资者也放弃逆势而为，开始买入股票。高盛的数据显示，在八月初，标准普尔500指数的平均空头利息仅占市值的1.8%，这是自2004年以来的最低水平。除能源以外的所有主要板块的看空头寸都在过去15年来的最低位。（来源：FactSet和高盛）无论在何时，做空永远是一件不容易的事。但是，空头的退场不代表着关于市场泡沫的争议已有定论。事实甚至相反，空头平仓反而进一步推动市场上涨，酝酿了更大的泡沫的形成。回想2000年的互联网泡沫时期，当时绝大多数对冲基金在1998年和1999年两年中，只有五个星期没有在做空标准普尔500期货。然而，他们都在2000年因为市场的疯狂上涨被迫平仓，承受了巨额损失。接下来，才是市场的崩盘。20年前互联网泡沫破碎之后，纳斯达克跌幅超过70%，标普500也下跌近50%。这次空头回补（short covering）对于市场的影响尤其明显。卖空者押注股票价格会下跌，几个月前借入和卖出股票，现在由于市场涨势凶猛，只能回购股票以平仓其现有的空头头寸。自3月份市场触底以来，高盛一篮子“最不受欢迎的股票”价格几乎翻了一番，涨幅几乎是标普500指数的两倍。Charlie McElligott公司的追踪商品交易顾问（CTA）基金的模型显示，3月9日全球股票期货的 “最大空头”中，后来已有约7000亿美元的空头头寸现在转为净多头。这都说明了空头们相继被迫平仓，加剧了股票的上涨。一旦大多数空头完成头寸平仓并回购股票，由空头回补推动的反弹趋势也会减弱。现在的状况有些类似2000年互联网泡沫破碎前夕的场景，当所有的空头都“绝种”了，意味着所有人都已买入，市场情绪极为乐观，美股估值处于极端高位，但失去了进一步上涨的动能。2000年席勒市盈率一度达到40倍，市场一片欢腾，而如今的席勒市盈率在31倍左右，虽然处于历史高位但仍然低于互联网泡沫时期的最高书评。大家想知道的问题是，市场还有进一步上涨的空间吗？（席勒市盈率）值得注意的是，乐观的市场情绪和历史高估值水平并不意味着市场面临下行风险。1998年初时，席勒市盈率超过30倍，市场仍然继续上涨，这是因为当时经济基本面仍然向好，企业利润率仍有增长空间，因此市场持续上涨至2000年，经济面临衰退风险，这才最终崩盘。今天美国面临的情形与1998年截然不同。经济已经陷入衰退，尚未出现复苏迹象，就业持续恶化，收入和信贷这两个美国居民消费的来源均出现严重问题，经济复苏正在失去动能；加之政府救助不力，开始削减和延迟对普通群众的补助，使其消费能力更加受限，对基建等公共投资也迟迟不行动，更加阻碍经济复苏。这一系列后果最终将在企业盈利中体现出来，目前投资者对于盈利V型反弹的预期大概率将破灭。在这样的背景下，金融市场依靠流动性与市场情绪推动，却与基本面严重脱钩，泡沫正在进一步加重，风险依然高企。历次经济衰退中，每每泡沫吹起之后都会破碎，股市最终都会被基本面拉回现实。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":979413606,"gmtCreate":1598325849705,"gmtModify":1704218351143,"author":{"id":"3539656355272385","authorId":"3539656355272385","name":"秦建侠","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3539656355272385","authorIdStr":"3539656355272385"},"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/979413606","repostId":2061839902,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":979517955,"gmtCreate":1598281133277,"gmtModify":1704218226353,"author":{"id":"3550511546173111","authorId":"3550511546173111","name":"研融","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3550511546173111","authorIdStr":"3550511546173111"},"htmlText":"今晚暴跌","listText":"今晚暴跌","text":"今晚暴跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/979517955","repostId":2061839902,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":979514445,"gmtCreate":1598281068787,"gmtModify":1704218226009,"author":{"id":"3550511546173111","authorId":"3550511546173111","name":"研融","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3550511546173111","authorIdStr":"3550511546173111"},"htmlText":"疯子","listText":"疯子","text":"疯子","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/979514445","repostId":2061839902,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":979519328,"gmtCreate":1598280041664,"gmtModify":1704218215640,"author":{"id":"3479402892751794","authorId":"3479402892751794","name":"T000002289","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dea9441792a31760f5929c106e5b3add","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479402892751794","authorIdStr":"3479402892751794"},"htmlText":"泡沫个球，比我强大的打压加收购，哪个能玩的过老美的牛逼，老美军事强会一直牛逼下去","listText":"泡沫个球，比我强大的打压加收购，哪个能玩的过老美的牛逼，老美军事强会一直牛逼下去","text":"泡沫个球，比我强大的打压加收购，哪个能玩的过老美的牛逼，老美军事强会一直牛逼下去","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/979519328","repostId":2061839902,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":979244027,"gmtCreate":1598276055769,"gmtModify":1704218161639,"author":{"id":"3494434605518537","authorId":"3494434605518537","name":"Alpha策略者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b8974cde5224de36495ccef178acd11","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eec1894d24f295622b8891594288edf1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3494434605518537","authorIdStr":"3494434605518537"},"htmlText":"确实如此","listText":"确实如此","text":"确实如此","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/979244027","repostId":2061839902,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":7,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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