农夫山泉几种中签模型推演

智通财经网2020-08-24

本文来自微信公众号“ 懒猪捡财”。农夫山泉不愧是水中茅台，听说网易丁磊都拿不到货，这还没开始招股就各种消息接连不断，懒猪来给大家屡屡：首先是入场费的，东财国际都直接出海报了，可靠性应该比较强按照每股30港币，一手200股，一手价格6000港币的话，甲组有18万手接下来是估值，这个比之前听到的所有版本都高，招股的估值还不知道，不过看国配和乙组这么火爆，拿不到货的国配大佬们暗盘捞货很有可能最后是传言...

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精彩评论

BruceLee666
2020-08-26
BruceLee666
不懂
陈小陈是小名_CCB是缩
2020-08-25
陈小陈是小名_CCB是缩
尤其对我们这些小散户，中只有加大资金，提高中签率
有烦恼的猫
2020-08-25
有烦恼的猫
了，小白完全看不懂害

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微信公众号“ 懒猪捡财”。农夫山泉不愧是水中茅台，听说网易丁磊都拿不到货，这还没开始招股就各种消息接连不断，懒猪来给大家屡屡：首先是入场费的，东财国际都直接出海报了，可靠性应该比较强按照每股30港币，一手200股，一手价格6000港币的话，甲组有18万手接下来是估值，这个比之前听到的所有版本都高，招股的估值还不知道，不过看国配和乙组这么火爆，拿不到货的国配大佬们暗盘捞货很有可能最后是传言乙组最低档980万，如果这样会有很多乙组掉到甲组，那甲组会很惨基于以上比较确定的入场费，和不太确定的乙组最低档，我构思了大致有以下几种中签情况第一种乙组最低档真的是980万，这样很多准备融资五六百万的，将会变成甲尾，通常热门新股乙组的认购倍数是要远超甲组的，即使这样甲组的中签率也不高，加上如果很多预备的乙头掉到甲组，那甲组的惨烈情况可想而知，一手中签率5%，200手稳中1手都保守了但是我认为这种可能性不大，为什么?既然我们知道大致的招股价，那就可以计算出认购金额的阶梯甲尾可能性比较大的是这两个，10万股的300万资金，或者15万股的450万，然后乙头是20万股600万资金，加上中签费这些需要大概606万，当然这些阶梯是账簿管理人定的，的确可以设定没有20万股这一档，但这一档刚好是整数，不太可能跳过，合理的话是10万股然后20万股，还没遇到过跳过直接到30万股的，所以我觉得可能性不大。当然如果入场费变了，那可能性就比较大了，最近一个乙头900多万的是正荣服务，这种情况出现的话乙头会吊打甲尾，乙头门槛提高筛掉了很多人，竞争小了比较常见的情况是甲尾和乙头中签率接近，甚至甲尾要好乙头一些，所以我才说像正荣服务这种情况很少见，但也不是没有，历史数据仅做参考是否900多万才能上乙组，招股第一天就能知道了。说完第一种，我觉得可能性不大外，我个人觉得第二、第三种情况可能性比较大，也就是乙头正常在600万这一档。这样乙组竞争会很激烈，乙头预计最后只能分配到2万左右的市值，还要计息10天，扣掉6千多利息，30%左右的打和点这样乙头效益不高，相反我对甲组比较乐观，为什么?因为货多，按照一手6千港币，这次甲组有18万手，看下之前几次热门股的情况：欧康维视生物，35万人申购，甲组5万手，一手中签率5%，300手稳中1手康基医疗，41万人申购，甲组11万手，一手中签率9%，90手稳中1手沛嘉医疗，28万人申购，甲组4万手，一手中签率8.5%，200手稳中1手农夫山泉这次虽然人数会增加，大概率超过50万人，但货是之前的2-3倍，所以中签率不至于太差，像康基医疗，就相对好一些。再来看几个货多但一手中签率比较低的新股：泰格医药，32万人申购，甲组11万手，一手中签率5%，60手稳中1手京东集团，40万人申购，甲组16万手，一手中签率10%，40手稳中1手这几个的特征就是，一手中签率低，没怎么分配给一手党，但是毕竟货那么多放在那，所以稳中1手不难所以这次农夫山泉中签率我构思了两个版本：第二种比较照顾一手党，一手中签率10%-15%，相对比较难稳中1手，要150起，甚至200手起。第三种不照顾一手党，一手中签率5%-10%，但是货比较多的情况下，比较容易稳中1手，150手以内，甚至100手以内。所以只要第一天招股确认乙组最低门槛不是980万，我对甲组还是比较乐观，至于是大甲还是小甲，我觉得都要配置，有些券商甲组支持20倍而且相对额度比较充足，比如华泰、东吴、华赢这些，就适合做大甲，放5-8万，每次能认购到150万以上，接近稳中1手，剩下的一些10倍杠杆的，就放1-2万做小甲。这次的小甲我认为也是可以融资申购的，一两万融资十倍也能认购到20手以上，中签率应该能接近20%，期望收益也是正的，只要账户多能拉平概率，肉一样有。现在港股打新已经进水深水区，小白一两个账户靠运气很难赚到钱，已经到了需要精耕细作，合理资金布局的阶段。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":973986962,"gmtCreate":1598427833056,"gmtModify":1704218784237,"author":{"id":"3561204459003397","authorId":"3561204459003397","authorIdStr":"3561204459003397","name":"BruceLee666","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3561204459003397"},"htmlText":"不懂","listText":"不懂","text":"不懂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/973986962","repostId":2061180188,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":979574561,"gmtCreate":1598312311553,"gmtModify":1704218301255,"author":{"id":"3554692677582320","authorId":"3554692677582320","authorIdStr":"3554692677582320","name":"陈小陈是小名_CCB是缩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a49bae2179e3adc2e5172b9b8f8a9b","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3554692677582320"},"htmlText":"尤其对我们这些小散户，中只有加大资金，提高中签率","listText":"尤其对我们这些小散户，中只有加大资金，提高中签率","text":"尤其对我们这些小散户，中只有加大资金，提高中签率","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/979574561","repostId":2061180188,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":979574122,"gmtCreate":1598311920666,"gmtModify":1704218300736,"author":{"id":"3555114715645119","authorId":"3555114715645119","authorIdStr":"3555114715645119","name":"有烦恼的猫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65ec80342c4aa5210d7724c0d81fbb95","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3555114715645119"},"htmlText":"了，小白完全看不懂害","listText":"了，小白完全看不懂害","text":"了，小白完全看不懂害","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/979574122","repostId":2061180188,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":11,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":14,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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