美国行将公布有史以来最糟糕GDP报告，对大选有何影响？

新浪财经2020-07-30

实属罕见疫情应对显成效欧元区经济表现将超过美国国经济在几乎整个4月都陷于停滞。现在，世界即将明了这种萎缩的深度。预计周四发布的数据将显示，美国国内生产总值第二季折合年率暴跌34.8%，创下1940年代以来的最糟纪录，因Covid-19的扩散使美国人留在家中，而各州均实施了广泛的防疫措施。尽管5月和6月经济活动因居家令解除而回升，但4月的下降幅度可能远远超过了本季度录得的任何涨幅。以下是有关报告...

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我是一只羊_刚_
2020-07-30
我是一只羊_刚_
年龄到了就下去，何必恋权呢

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How will it affect the election?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2c390761358c8017c985856def7cdc4","symbols_score_info":{"POAI":0.9,"GRIL":0.9,"INPX":0.9,"JTA":0.9,"LIOPY":0.9,"LPTX":0.9,"MTDR":0.9,"NCNA":0.9,"NMRD":0.9,"NVEE":0.9,"OPK":0.9,"PASG":0.9,"PHIO":0.9,"GNPX":0.9,"RVMD":0.9,"RWT":0.9,"SFET":0.9,"SIRLF":0.9,"SPCB":0.9,"TWMC":0.9,"TXG":0.9,"VISL":0.9,"VNGBF":0.9,"VVPR":0.9,"XAIR":0.9,"COHN":0.9,"AFFT":0.9,"ARXXL":0.9,"BBI":0.9,"BGVDF":0.9,"BNVTF":0.9,"BTAI":0.9,"CARG":0.9,"CEYFF":0.9,"CHFS":0.9,"CLVS":0.9,"CNNE":0.9,"ACU":0.9,"CYH":0.9,"DGEN":0.9,"DIAX":0.9,"DPW":0.9,"DYNT":0.9,"EFFDF":0.9,"ENBL":0.9,"ENSV":0.9,"GHSI":0.9,"GLEO":0.9,"GLYC":0.9},"content_text":"实属罕见 疫情应对显成效 欧元区经济表现将超过美国国经济在几乎整个4月都陷于停滞。现在，世界即将明了这种萎缩的深度。预计周四发布的数据将显示，美国国内生产总值第二季折合年率暴跌34.8%，创下1940年代以来的最糟纪录，因Covid-19的扩散使美国人留在家中，而各州均实施了广泛的防疫措施。尽管5月和6月经济活动因居家令解除而回升，但4月的下降幅度可能远远超过了本季度录得的任何涨幅。以下是有关报告的一些问题和解答：美国经济实际上萎缩了三分之一吗？没有。编制GDP数据的政府机构经济分析局一直以年化率报告数字。也就是说它表明如果持续整整一年，季度变化将是怎样。危机爆发前，经济通常每季度增长零点几个百分点，折合年率增速通常在2%至3%之间。这意味着周四的主要数据比实际情况看上去要差很多。折合年率萎缩35%实际上意味着第二季的经济体量比第一季下降了约10%。即便如此，这仍然将远远超出创纪录的单季折合年率降幅，即1958年第一季录得的10%，当时发生了全球流感大流行。最新的数字是三次估算中的第一个，就像所有GDP报告一样可能会在未来两个月甚至与未来几年内进行修订，并且修订幅度可能会比平时更大。是什么导致了第二季的萎缩？美国人闭门不出，没有外出就餐、实体零售和旅行方面的开支，导致通常占到GDP三分之二左右的消费者支出崩溃。预计当季个人消费折合年率将下降34.5%，也将创下历史新高。不过，还不仅仅是个人消费。住宅投资下降40%，设备支出减少50%，且净出口和库存造成的拖累，都可能是造成这种情况的原因。富国银行预计，尽管有庞大的联邦刺激措施，但政府支出仍为负数。为什么？税收收入大幅下降的州和地方政府减少了支出。下半年经济会不会强势反弹？会的，但活动可能会几年低于大流行前的水平，而且复苏已经显示出停滞的迹象。7月初彭博对经济学家的调查显示，他们预计经济在第三季折合年率增长18%。这将刚好超过1950年第一季创纪录的16.7%的增速。“问题是，这种反弹有多可持续？” 美国银行的美国经济学主管Michelle Meyer说。这对选举意味着什么？美国选民将在三个月后决定，考虑到疫情引起的衰退以及特朗普对危机的回应，是否再选他担任总统。在大流行之前，特朗普的目标是保持住3%的经济增速。现在，冠状病毒在特朗普的经济遗产上留下了自己的印记--经济进入衰退，而且可能是有记录以来最严重的单季GDP下降。第三季的GDP数据--预期的反弹--将于10月29日、也就是投票日前五天公布。特朗普很清楚这个时机。尽管从理论上说，结果可能会影响到最后决定的选民，但许多邮寄选票的人已经做出了选择--特别是出于对Covid-19的担忧，今年邮寄选票的发生率更高。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":942157669,"gmtCreate":1596114345351,"gmtModify":1704211075736,"author":{"id":"3529087888497097","authorId":"3529087888497097","name":"我是一只羊_刚_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86c55c2616bbc6dcd207d1c6ee9f119b","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3529087888497097","authorIdStr":"3529087888497097"},"htmlText":"年龄到了就下去，何必恋权呢","listText":"年龄到了就下去，何必恋权呢","text":"年龄到了就下去，何必恋权呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/942157669","repostId":2055020697,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.4","shortVersion":"4.29.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2055020697"}