My COVID-19 Vaccine Report Card

Biologics2020-07-16

SummaryThe COVID-19 pandemic has created a gold-rush on vaccine stocks. Many of the small-cap biotech and pharmaceutical companies have experienced 1000%+ gains as investors speculative who will be ...

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Many of the small-cap biotech and pharmaceutical companies have experienced 1000%+ gains as investors speculative who will be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4358803-covidminus-19-vaccine-report-card\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"ALT","symbol_name":"Altimmune, Inc.","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4358803-covidminus-19-vaccine-report-card","article_id":"2051293196","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2051293196","pubTimestamp":1594906918,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The COVID-19 pandemic has created a gold-rush on vaccine stocks. Many of the small-cap biotech and pharmaceutical companies have experienced 1000%+ gains as investors speculative who will be first.I have been lucky to have several of these tickers in my speculative portfolio. I take a look at Novavax, Altimmune, NantKwest, VBI Vaccines, and Dynavax.I review these companies' vaccine candidates and discuss why I am still bullish on these names.I grade these investments and provide my views about the COVID-19 vaccine race.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"ALT":"Altimmune, Inc.","DVAX":"德纳维制药"},"translate_title":"我的COVID-19疫苗成绩单","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ALT":0.9,"DVAX":0.9,"NK":0.9},"content_text":"SummaryThe COVID-19 pandemic has created a gold-rush on vaccine stocks. Many of the small-cap biotech and pharmaceutical companies have experienced 1000%+ gains as investors speculative who will be first.I have been lucky to have several of these tickers in my speculative portfolio. I take a look at Novavax, Altimmune, NantKwest, VBI Vaccines, and Dynavax.I review these companies' vaccine candidates and discuss why I am still bullish on these names.I grade these investments and provide my views about the COVID-19 vaccine race.The healthcare sector has benefited from the biotech and pharmaceutical industry's efforts to develop COVID-19 therapeutics and vaccines. Most of the big pharma companies have stepped up and led the way with antivirals, antibodies, and are committed to producing millions of doses of their vaccine. As a result, some of these companies have had their tickers see a bump in their share price. However, it has been the smaller biotech and pharmaceutical companies that have seen huge gains in their share price as investors speculate on their COVID-19 programs and candidates. As a speculative biotech investor, I have been fortunate to have some of these big winners such as Novavax (NVAX), Altimmune (ALT), VBI Vaccines (VBIV), NantKwest (NK), and Dynavax (DVAX) in a speculative portfolio. I believe all of these tickers still have significant upside potential as we move deeper into the COVID-19 pandemic and the need for multiple vaccines increases. I intend to review these companies and discuss their COVID-19 efforts thus far. In addition, I examine the market's reaction to their COVID-19 programs and why certain tickers are leaders or laggards. Finally, I grade these COVID-19 vaccine tickers and provide my final thoughts about how investors should monitor these vaccine programs. Novavax Novavax is perhaps the best example of a \"COVID-19 play\" due to the stock rising up over 2500% since my last NVAX article. There have been numerous vaccine companies going after a COVID-19 vaccine, but Novavax was one the first publicly traded companies to announce an initiation of a program and moved quickly to get their pre-clinical work completed. The company's efforts produced, NVX‑CoV2373, Novavax's lead COVID-19 vaccine candidate which revealed \"high immunogenicity and high levels of neutralizing antibodies\" in pre-clinical testing. As a result, the company initiated a Phase I/II clinical trial to evaluate NVX‑CoV2373's immunogenicity and safety in both an adjuvanted with Matrix‑M and unadjuvanted versions. If the trial is successful, the company expects to quickly move the vaccine into a Phase III trial.\n I decided to accumulate a sizable position in anticipation of a successful Phase III NanoFlu study in Q1, but the reaction from the COVID-19 vaccine program has far exceeded my expectations for NVAX. Admittedly, I took off the majority of that position once I was up 1000% to ensure a profit and allow me to sleep at night, but now I am watching the stock more than double in the past few weeks as the company signs agreements and secures up to $1.6B in funding from Operation Warp Speed. In addition, the company has already signed a deal with the Department of Defense. Despite my long-term bullish outlook for NVAX, I am stunned to see the stock run from roughly $4 per share to over $100 per share (Figure 1). The bulls keep on trampling over the bears as the company continues to move closer to a data readout for the COVID-19 vaccine candidate in July and a NanoFlu BLA submission later this year.  Figure 1: NVAX Daily (Source: Trendspider) If the data is good we could see a new 52-week high and another bear massacre, however, we might see an equivalent reaction in the other direction if the data is lackluster. Consequently, I am going to wait and see what the Phase I/II data shows before making any other moves. Long-term, Novavax investors should remain focused on NanoFlu's potential FDA approval and what the company is going to do with their maternal RSV vaccine, ResVax. I'm not downplaying the importance of the COVID-19 vaccine, but the company's other vaccine candidates should be factored into your investment thesis. Altimmune Altimmune has been one of my love/hate speculative biotech plays over the past couple of years for a number of reasons. Altimmune's nasal vaccine technology has created some impressive vaccine product candidates for the flu (NasoVax) and anthrax (NasoShield) that have posted superior results to contemporary vaccines. However, the company has had some unclear data in their NasoShield and they have also failed to find a partner for NasoVax to help finish out the regulatory pathway. In addition, the company was slowly moving away from vaccine development and focusing on their hepatology and oncology candidates. My ALT thesis was based around their vaccine technology and I had accumulated a large position in anticipation NasoVax would become a leading flu vaccine. So, when the company started the transition away from vaccines I started to debate on whether to stay on board or jump ship. At first, Altimmune was sitting on the sidelines for the COVID-19 pandemic, and I was frustrated because I knew Altimmune's vaccine technology would produce a viable candidate with some superior abilities over the traditional vaccines. First and foremost, is the nasal administration, which allows for the potential for self-administration and increased mucosal immunity. In addition, the company's rAd vector technology will allow the vaccine to be a single-dose vaccine that could be stored at room temperature. Thankfully, they eventually decided to join the battle with their nasal vaccine candidate AdCOVID and even added their T-COVID therapeutic for early treatment of COVID-19.\n  Figure 2: AdCOVID vs Other Vaccines (Source: ALT) Now, that the COVID-19 pandemic is spreading the need for both mass vaccinations and mass treatments, I believe Altimmune's product candidates could be a superior vaccine. I instantly envisioned AdCOVID being shipped directly to the population which will eliminate the need for people to be exposed to a doctor's offices and also eliminate the expenses of recruiting medical professionals to administer a vaccine. Altimmune recently reported pre-clinical AdCOVID data that revealed \"showed strong serum neutralizing activity and potent mucosal immunity in the respiratory tract. The induction of IgA antibody in the respiratory tract may be necessary to block both infection and transmission of the virus to prevent further spread of COVID-19.\" AdCOVID's single-dose stimulated a robust systemic antibody reaction, reaching serum IgG antibody concentrations in excess of 800 μg/mL at 14 days from the administration. Furthermore, AdCOVID developed 1:320 serum viral neutralization titers by Day 28, which is 2x greater than the FDA's marks for COVID-19 convalescent plasma. What is more, a single intranasal dose of AdCOVID stimulated a 29-fold induction of mucosal IgA in the bronchoalveolar fluid of vaccinated mice, which is superior to other known mucosal vaccines. So, it appears the preclinical data supports the potential for AdCOVID to be a top-tier vaccine that is essentially perfect for a mass vaccination campaign in a pandemic. Unfortunately, the company won't be starting a human trial until later this year, which puts them well behind the big players. In addition, the company has not received a large amount of government funding, so the company had to execute a secondary offering.\n However, the company teamed up with DynPort Vaccine Company \"DVC\", which a General Dynamics (GD) company, to provide program management and help secure government funding. It appears DVC is the perfect company to work with and has the right connections to help AdCOVID get across the finish line (Figure 3)  Figure 3: DVC Abilities (Source: DVC) The stock has been surging after every news update and hit $33.30 for a fresh 52-week high despite the secondary offering (Figure 4). Perhaps ALT is finally getting some respect and is finally moving away from penny stock status?  Figure 4: ALT Daily (Source: Trendspider) The upside from the COVID-19 programs could be immense and the company's impressive pipeline holds some intriguing product candidates (Figure 5).  Figure 5: ALT Pipeline (Source: ALT) To sum it up, this is Altimmune's moment…and the management appears to be making the right moves and is working hard to execute on their initiatives to get both AdCOVID and T-COVID to the masses. Furthermore, I hope to see the company find a partner for NasoVax, which is the Influenza version of AdCOVID. The company hasn't signed a partnership to finish NasoVax's regulatory path but I am eager to see if the increased attention from their COVID-19 efforts has some parties interested in helping Altimmune out. Long-term, I believe Altimmune's vaccine technology and pipeline potential allows for continued upside.\n NantKwest NantKwest was flying under the radar for a couple of months, but a recent oncology readout and COVID-19 program announcements have delivered new 52-week highs for the stock (Figure 6).  Figure 6: NK Daily (Source: Trendspider) NantKwest's natural killer \"NK\" cell therapies is being tested in a broad array of diseases, including COVID-19. Recently, the company announced a collaboration with a fellow NantWorks company, ImmunityBio, where ImmunityBio will center on the progress of a vaccine and natural killer cell activation, with their immunomodulators. At the same time, NantKwest will be developing their off-the-shelf, cell-based therapeutics for COVID-19. The NantWorks collaboration has yielded \"immunomodulator regimens\" for COVID-19 for mild, moderate, severe, and critically ill state (Figure 7).  Figure 7: NantWorks COVID-19 Programs (Source: NantKwest) ImmunityBio's COVID-19 vaccine candidate uses a next-gen Ad5 platform that will yield a vector that is immunologically \"quiet\" and will target both the spike \"S\" protein and the nucleocapsid \"N\" protein that should encourage antigen-specific T-cell immunity. This is the only recognized COVID-19 vaccine candidate that is pursuing both proteins and could deliver an extended immunity to the virus when matched against other vaccines. I believe NantKwest's NK cell technology and collaboration will produce impressive COVID-19 therapeutics and vaccines. The company's CEO, Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong, has a strong history of discovering and developing exceptional therapeutics, so I am banking on NantKwest yielding superior COVID-19 products. The government hasn't stepped up to NantKwest and provided the company with significant financial support, which has kept the stock under the radar…however, I am expecting the government to start spreading the wealth in the coming weeks and months as the pressure rises due to the number of cases increases in the United States. However, I wouldn't bet against, Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong, so I expect the company to move ahead with or without Warp Speed.\n VBI Vaccines VBI Vaccines is finally starting to get some attention from the market and the stock is gaining some traction. My original investment thesis was valued based on when the stock was trading around $0.50 per share and the company was preparing to release fresh data on their hepatitis B vaccine, Sci-B-Vac. The company did report impressive data that showed that Sci-B-Vac hit all primary and secondary endpoints and no safety signals were observed. In addition, the Sci-B-Vac outperformed GlaxoSmithKline's (GSK) Engerix in several categories including Seroprotection (Figure 8).  Figure 8: Sci-B-Vac vs. Engerix (Source: VBIV) This data will allow the company to start submitting their applications for approval towards the end of 2020, with a potential approval in 2021. So, my thesis worked out and I was willing to wait for an approval. Then, the COVID-19 pandemic hit, and VBI jumped into the mix when they announced their pan-coronavirus vaccine candidate, VBI-2901. VBI's coronavirus vaccine is a multivalent vaccine that includes spike proteins from SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV (Figure 9), which could generate a broad array of reactive antibodies, which may deliver protection from mutated strains of the coronavirus.  Figure 9: Pan-Coronavirus Structure. Source: VBIV Out of all of the known COVID-19 vaccines in development right now, I believe VBI is the only one working on a pan-coronavirus multivalent vaccine. This makes VBI-2901 a potential game-changer because of the possibility that COVID-19 might become endemic and find ways to mutate into seasonal strains that will make the current vaccines obsolete. The other vaccines in could make it all the way through the regulatory process to find out that COVID-19 is now COVID-20. VBI-2901 might be the only vaccine that could be effective against a drifted COVID-19. It is possible that COVID-19 becomes endemic, which will force health organizations to look for an annual multivalent vaccine, which will most likely favor VBI-2901's design.\n So far, the company has already partnered with the National Research Council of Canada, \"NRC,\" to bring a candidate to the clinic in Q4 2020. Unfortunately, we haven't seen any pre-clinical data for VBI-2901, so we can't get too excited. However, the market has been infusing money into the ticker which is up about 1000% from my VBIV article (Figure 10).  Figure 10: VBIV Daily (Source: Trendspider) It will be interesting to see if VBIV can keep up the momentum but investors need to remain vigilant for updates on VBI-2901, Sci-B-Vac, and the company's pipeline programs (Figure 11).  Figure 11: VBIV Pipeline (Source: VBIV) Dynavax Despite having several COVID-19 collaborations, Dynavax Technologies has been one of the laggards of the COVID-19 plays. Indeed, the stock has seen a strong from its 52-week lows (Figure 12) but the stock is not experiencing the same hype as other vaccine companies. I have to assume the lack of respect is due to the company not having their own COVID-19 vaccine but has signed collaborations for use of their TLR9 CpG 1018 adjuvant that they used in their hepatitis B vaccine, HEPLISAV-B. The addition of CpG 1018 in vaccines is expected to increase antibodies, CD4+, and CD8+ T cell populations and produces vigorous T and B cell memory reactions. This T cell response makes CpG 1018 one of the adjuvant's of choice because it could be a single-dose vaccine. As a result, CpG 1018 is being used in several COVID-19 vaccines candidates from all over the world, including,\n   University of Queensland in Australia  Clover Biopharmaceuticals in China  Sinovac Pharmaceuticals in China  Medicago in Canada  Yet, DVAX is struggling to hit $10 per share? Dynavax's adjuvant might be used in millions of vaccines around the world but the market either isn't aware, or it doesn't care.  Figure 12: DVAX Daily (Source: Trendspider) I have to assume the Street believes that the financials of providing an adjuvant is not the same as developing the vaccine. However, the number of deals could provide Dynavax with several revenue sources, while limiting the downside risk of regulatory failure and expenses. Long-term DVAX investors should focus on the company's HEPLISAV-B numbers and what the company intends to do with their mothballed oncology candidates, including SD-101. Grading These Tickers Novavax: Overall, NVAX has been a home run of an investment and I still see NVAX to be bullish simply on momentum and its ability to close deals with the Department of Defense and Operation Warp Speed. However, investors need to keep a close eye on the clinical data for NVX‑CoV2373 and how it stacks up against other early vaccine players. Altimmune: Altimmune was slow out of the gates but the company has worked hard to formulate a COVID-19 vaccine and therapeutic. Their recent collaboration with DVC has provided me with some confidence that they will get some government funding and will quickly get AdCOVID in the clinic. I was very close to ditching my ALT position but the COVID-19 pandemic has showcased the company's vaccine technology that could produce a vaccine that is perfect for a mass vaccination campaign. My original investment thesis has been revitalized and the stock is up over 1000% since my last addition, so I have to say ALT has been another home run investment.\n NantKwest: Once again, NantKwest has developed a potentially leading therapeutic by employing their NK cells but instead of cancer, the company is taking on COVID-19. NantKwest is collaborating with a fellow NantWorks company, ImmunityBio, to produce a potentially superior COVID-19 vaccine that targets both the S and N proteins of the virus. Sadly, the government and health agencies haven't recognized or respected NantKwest's efforts and the stock hasn't experienced the same level of hype as other COVID-19 plays. Indeed, the stock is up nearly 900% from my first NK article, so I have to be happy with the results, still, I am disappointed that the market is still not giving it the admiration it deserves. However, if the company reports preclinical data that reveals their vaccine and therapeutic is superior to the competition, we could witness a rotation into NK. VBI Vaccines: VBI's vaccine offers a multivalent vaccine that includes the spike proteins from SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV, which generate a broad defense from mutated strains of COVID-19. If there is data that shows that COVID-19 is turning into a COVID-20 or COVID-21, there will be doubts that the current lot of vaccines will not be as effective against the mutated strain. If this occurs I suspect the market will be on the lookout for a vaccine that is capable of dealing with a new endemic virus and VBI-2901 might be the answer. Admittedly, I didn't expect VBIV to be up over 800% since my first article, but I am glad to see VBIV getting some love from the market and could be a big winner if we a mutation in the virus. Dynavax: Has been one of my worst investments for number of reasons. Primarily, the company essentially destroyed my investment thesis focused on SD-101 and I was left with HEPLISAV-B, a pertussis pre-clinical candidate, and an adjuvant. Luckily, multiple pharmaceutical companies have tapped Dynavax to use their adjuvant for their COVID-19 vaccines, so the ticker has received some attention from the market to get me back above water…but I am not seeing the surge we are witnessing in the other names. However, I suspect one of the company's partnerships will get their vaccine approved to market and DVAX will finally start gathering some steam.\n Final Thoughts On COVID-19 Vaccine The COVID-19 vaccine \"race\" is a dynamic event that has numerous classes, lanes, and heats to run before we have a winner. Consequently, I suggest vaccine investors to sit down and determine where their investment is in this race. Were they an early player like NVAX? Are they part of Operation Warp Speed like NVAX? Is their vaccine unique like ALT, NK, or VBIV? Do they have partners to help them get across the finish line like NVAX, ALT, and DVAX have? If you can answer yes to these types of questions, the company could endure the increased volatility in the coming months as some companies report initial trial results and move closer to being approved. I believe the first vaccine to be approved is not going to offer the best efficacy or safety profile, or be able to manufacture in mass quantity, or will require multiple doses; or a variety of other characteristics. This leaves the door open to other vaccines to fill in the gaps or perhaps overtake the first-to-market vaccine as the standard-of-care vaccine. These opportunities will only multiply if COVID-19 becomes COVID-20 and this type of coronavirus becomes endemic to the human species. At that point, you will need a variety of different vaccines and companies to address the issues that will arise with dealing with a mutating virus that is spreading to all corners of the globe because no one will have an immunity. Therefore, the COVID-19 vaccine race is not over until the virus has been eradicated and the threat of a resurgence has been eliminated. Obviously, that is not going to happen anytime soon, so I expect these tickers to remain \"in-play\" for at least the remainder of 2020.\nDisclosure: I am/we are long NVAX, ALT, NK, VBIV, DVAX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.1","shortVersion":"4.25.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2051293196"}