别太高兴的太早！以史为鉴美股抛售潮恐将卷土重来

新浪财经2020-05-27

周二(5月26日)，美国股市大幅上涨，原因是市场对经济复苏和可能的冠状病毒疫苗的乐观情绪升温。周一，美国适逢阵亡将士纪念日(Memorial Day)休市一日，股市周二开盘强劲上涨。美市盘中，标准普尔500指数上涨1.9%，自3月5日以来首次突破3000点。道琼斯指数上涨577点，涨幅2.4%。道琼斯指数也达到了自3月初以来的最高水平，突破了25000点大关。纳斯达克综合指数上涨1.5%，距2...

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精彩评论

真的英雄
2020-05-27
真的英雄
中或赢[打脸]
走刀口
2020-05-27
走刀口
唱空有用么天天喊哈哈哈
Jimmy洗米家
2020-05-27
Jimmy洗米家
每次都這樣說，之前一直說漲太多了，別買進結果一直創新高，現在暴跌兩三成，漲回軌道又說還會跌…不要一張嘴
以后谁空谁小狗
2020-05-27
以后谁空谁小狗
中央电视台看多了吧
小白一大个
2020-05-27
小白一大个
**吗？唱空美股的都死了小编也不例外
- 股赢百亿:
  没毛病！做空美股的，内裤都得亏掉

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Dempter上周五在一份报告中指出：“标普500指数正录得35%的升势，200日均线与3000点大关持平，这一事实似乎令该区域显得尤为重要。突破不太可能轻易发生，我们预计在200日均线左右会出现一场混战。”\n标普500指数在2月19日收于纪录高位，之后随着对冠状病毒爆发的担忧开始加剧，该指数开始急剧下挫。抛售一直持续到3月23日，其收盘时比历史高点低了34%左右。自那以来，标普500指数展开大幅反弹，上周五收盘较高点的跌幅收窄至12.7%。但在标普500指数约三周前首次逼近200日移动均线后，该指标看起来受到了抑制。\n“困在时间框架之间”\n与此同时，该指标仍高于50日移动均线，这是交易员用来衡量资产短期趋势的指标。换句话说，股市“被困在时间框架之间”，投资研究公司Sundial Capital research的创始人、SentimenTrader 主管Jason Goepfert在上周五的一份报告中写道(见下图)。截至上周五收盘，该指数连续21个交易日保持在50日和200日均线之间。\n\n（来源：S&P、MarketWatch）\n自1928年以来，该股指已经有29次在这两大均线之中持续至少20天，其中21次标普500指数以跌至50日均线告终，而只有8次成功升至200日均线以上。他指出，因此约有72%的概率该股指会下跌。\n但Goepfert指出，即便该指数逆势上扬，也不会给投资者带来多少安慰。他发现，在过去当这种情况发生时，一年后的平均回报率是-9.2%，而股票产生正回报的时间只有38%。\n慢性“消化不良”\nArbeter Investments总裁Mark Arbeter周四在一份报告中写道，事实上，自2009年以来跳穿200日移动均线“总会遇到一些消化不良症状”。\n他回忆道：“当标普500指数在2009年6月首次突破200日均线时，正值我们走出大熊市和金融危机之际，该指数先是停滞不前，然后回落了约7%，在200日下行均线的顶部持续了约一个月。2010年6月，在经历了快速下跌后，该指数重新回到了200日均线，然后暂停，之后跌至新的回调低点。”\n“2010年8月，200日均线被超越，并再次翻滚。在2011年的大调整之后，标普500指数升至200日均线之上并持续了2天，但然后下降了9.8%。我们在2015年和2016年看到了类似的价格波动，因为2015年10月该指数在升穿200日均线后反弹遭遇惨败。”\n“人们会认为，在一次大的回调或熊市之后，然后重新回到这一关键的平均水平，多头就会疯狂，空头就会投降，股市就会升入太空。不是这样的！”他写道。\n不过，一些观察图表的人士仍对市场近期的走势感到鼓舞，认为如果标普500指数清除均线这一阻力位，至少在短期内仍有强劲上涨的空间。\n加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)首席技术分析师George Davis在一份报告中表示，该指数本周稍早收在2955点的短期双顶上方，令市场关注200日均线。\n\n（来源：RBC Capital Markets、MarketWatch）\n虽然在该水准附近可能存在部分卖压，但市场并未超买，这意味着“风险偏好”动能可能推动指数进一步上涨。他在一份报告中说，如果成功测试这一均线，将把3050点作为关注焦点，然后是3110点，其是2月至3月跌势的76.4%回档位。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":951062600,"gmtCreate":1590588530800,"gmtModify":1704193029785,"author":{"id":"3472509891364152","authorId":"3472509891364152","name":"真的英雄","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/840859d8f7d3c5c63498b7f330b98705","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f4db5a25402cce463d975948213b15","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"中或赢[打脸]&nbsp;","listText":"中或赢[打脸]&nbsp;","text":"中或赢[打脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/951062600","repostId":2038471760,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":951015149,"gmtCreate":1590586808281,"gmtModify":1704193004356,"author":{"id":"25309583531760","authorId":"25309583531760","name":"走刀口","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"唱空有用么 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小编也不例外","listText":"**吗？唱空美股的都死了 小编也不例外","text":"**吗？唱空美股的都死了 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