提高警惕！古根海姆警告“明斯基时刻”恐将到来

环球外汇网2019-12-24

古根海姆合伙公司（Guggenheim Partners）首席投资官斯科特·米纳德（Scott Minerd）周一表示，随着美联储降息、美股屡创新高，当前市场环境颇有些类似于1998年金融风暴前的情况，“明斯基时刻”恐怕就要来了。明斯基时刻指的是，在信贷周期中，当景气处于乐观阶段时，企业或投资者会更愿意加杠杆、导致投机性贷款增加，而一旦借款方开始经历升息或是经济放缓，那么即可能出现资金短缺之窘境...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

大侠投资
2019-12-24
大侠投资
美股崩了才信

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1993756586?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2019-12-24 16:03","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","id":"1993756586","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"提高警惕！古根海姆警告“明斯基时刻”恐将到来","media":"环球外汇网","content":"<div>\n<p>古根海姆合伙公司（Guggenheim Partners）首席投资官斯科特·米纳德（Scott Minerd）周一表示，随着美联储降息、美股屡创新高，当前市场环境颇有些类似于1998年金融风暴前的情况，“明斯基时刻”恐怕就要来了。\n明斯基时刻指的是，在信贷周期中，当景气处于乐观阶段时，企业或投资者会更愿意加杠杆、导致投机性贷款增加，而一旦借款方开始经历升息或是经济放缓，那么即可能出现资金短缺之窘境...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2019-12-24/doc-iihnzahi9661479.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"sina","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>提高警惕！古根海姆警告“明斯基时刻”恐将到来</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n提高警惕！古根海姆警告“明斯基时刻”恐将到来\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2019-12-24 16:03 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2019-12-24/doc-iihnzahi9661479.shtml><strong>环球外汇网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>古根海姆合伙公司（Guggenheim Partners）首席投资官斯科特·米纳德（Scott Minerd）周一表示，随着美联储降息、美股屡创新高，当前市场环境颇有些类似于1998年金融风暴前的情况，“明斯基时刻”恐怕就要来了。\n明斯基时刻指的是，在信贷周期中，当景气处于乐观阶段时，企业或投资者会更愿意加杠杆、导致投机性贷款增加，而一旦借款方开始经历升息或是经济放缓，那么即可能出现资金短缺之窘境...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2019-12-24/doc-iihnzahi9661479.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":null,"symbol_name":null,"start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2019-12-24/doc-iihnzahi9661479.shtml","article_id":"1993756586","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1993756586","pubTimestamp":1577174580,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"sina","name":"sina"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"古根海姆合伙公司（Guggenheim Partners）首席投资官斯科特·米纳德（Scott Minerd）周一表示，随着美联储降息、美股屡创新高，当前市场环境颇有些类似于1998年金融风暴前的情况","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"sina.com.cn","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{},"translate_title":"Be vigilant! Guggenheim Warns \"Minsky Moment\" Will Come,","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c24530b8ea4b076a88aa14ab43e03da5","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"古根海姆合伙公司（Guggenheim Partners）首席投资官斯科特·米纳德（Scott Minerd）周一表示，随着美联储降息、美股屡创新高，当前市场环境颇有些类似于1998年金融风暴前的情况，“明斯基时刻”恐怕就要来了。\n明斯基时刻指的是，在信贷周期中，当景气处于乐观阶段时，企业或投资者会更愿意加杠杆、导致投机性贷款增加，而一旦借款方开始经历升息或是经济放缓，那么即可能出现资金短缺之窘境，最终可能不足以支付债务利息。\n而当企业或投资人迫不得已需要出售手中资产换取现金时，若市场上诸多参与人士也同时卖出，那么在景气扩张阶段所形成的高档资产价格即可能没有人愿意接手，形成了一系列资产螺旋式下跌的流动性紧张，进而最后导致资产价格崩盘。\n回顾在1998年时，美联储也曾进行一系列降息，创造出由流动性驱动的金融资产涨势，那斯达克指数在一年内出现翻倍成长，这也为随后的2000年互联网泡沫破裂埋下伏笔。\n而目前，美联储在年内已三度降息，与1995-1996年和1998年降息时期类似，市场也具有了明斯基时刻的特点。（美股处于极度贪婪区域）\nMinerd引述著名经济学家John Maynard Keynes的言论称：“市场保持非理性的时间，可能比你保持偿债能力的时间还要长。”\nMinerd解释道：“尽管美联储试图延长经济扩张，但现实是，这往往也是风险资产愚蠢季的序幕。汲取过去经验的教训，我们将继续采取防御性配置，以便在资产价格不可避免地重新调整时能够保留资本，并做好充分利用机会的准备。”\n值得一提的是，目前美元高收益债与同期美债利差出现收窄，亦是市场即将崩溃的一个明显迹象。Minerd提到，投资者在当前市场上承担的巨大风险却没得到充分的风险贴水补偿，在固定收益信贷市场的各个领域，风险正广泛聚集，尤其是在企业信贷领域，风险报酬比似乎很没有吸引力。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":913913555,"gmtCreate":1577180854577,"gmtModify":1704335397681,"author":{"id":"49588058040162","authorId":"49588058040162","name":"大侠投资","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a672fd2501fdb5019e0debb09f2c975","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"49588058040162","idStr":"49588058040162"},"htmlText":"美股崩了才信","listText":"美股崩了才信","text":"美股崩了才信","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/913913555","repostId":1993756586,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1993756586"}