提高警惕！古根海姆警告“明斯基时刻”恐将到来

环球外汇网2019-12-24

古根海姆合伙公司（Guggenheim Partners）首席投资官斯科特·米纳德（Scott Minerd）周一表示，随着美联储降息、美股屡创新高，当前市场环境颇有些类似于1998年金融风暴前的情况，“明斯基时刻”恐怕就要来了。明斯基时刻指的是，在信贷周期中，当景气处于乐观阶段时，企业或投资者会更愿意加杠杆、导致投机性贷款增加，而一旦借款方开始经历升息或是经济放缓，那么即可能出现资金短缺之窘境...

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大侠投资
2019-12-24
大侠投资
美股崩了才信

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Guggenheim Warns \"Minsky Moment\" Will Come,","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c24530b8ea4b076a88aa14ab43e03da5","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"古根海姆合伙公司（Guggenheim Partners）首席投资官斯科特·米纳德（Scott Minerd）周一表示，随着美联储降息、美股屡创新高，当前市场环境颇有些类似于1998年金融风暴前的情况，“明斯基时刻”恐怕就要来了。\n明斯基时刻指的是，在信贷周期中，当景气处于乐观阶段时，企业或投资者会更愿意加杠杆、导致投机性贷款增加，而一旦借款方开始经历升息或是经济放缓，那么即可能出现资金短缺之窘境，最终可能不足以支付债务利息。\n而当企业或投资人迫不得已需要出售手中资产换取现金时，若市场上诸多参与人士也同时卖出，那么在景气扩张阶段所形成的高档资产价格即可能没有人愿意接手，形成了一系列资产螺旋式下跌的流动性紧张，进而最后导致资产价格崩盘。\n回顾在1998年时，美联储也曾进行一系列降息，创造出由流动性驱动的金融资产涨势，那斯达克指数在一年内出现翻倍成长，这也为随后的2000年互联网泡沫破裂埋下伏笔。\n而目前，美联储在年内已三度降息，与1995-1996年和1998年降息时期类似，市场也具有了明斯基时刻的特点。（美股处于极度贪婪区域）\nMinerd引述著名经济学家John Maynard Keynes的言论称：“市场保持非理性的时间，可能比你保持偿债能力的时间还要长。”\nMinerd解释道：“尽管美联储试图延长经济扩张，但现实是，这往往也是风险资产愚蠢季的序幕。汲取过去经验的教训，我们将继续采取防御性配置，以便在资产价格不可避免地重新调整时能够保留资本，并做好充分利用机会的准备。”\n值得一提的是，目前美元高收益债与同期美债利差出现收窄，亦是市场即将崩溃的一个明显迹象。Minerd提到，投资者在当前市场上承担的巨大风险却没得到充分的风险贴水补偿，在固定收益信贷市场的各个领域，风险正广泛聚集，尤其是在企业信贷领域，风险报酬比似乎很没有吸引力。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":913913555,"gmtCreate":1577180854577,"gmtModify":1704335397681,"author":{"id":"49588058040162","authorId":"49588058040162","name":"大侠投资","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a672fd2501fdb5019e0debb09f2c975","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"美股崩了才信","listText":"美股崩了才信","text":"美股崩了才信","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/913913555","repostId":1993756586,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.24.2","shortVersion":"4.24.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1993756586"}