黑天鹅再现！美债“核弹级”倒挂，道指狂泄800点

每日经济新闻2019-08-15

原标题：黑天鹅再现！美债“核弹级”倒挂，风险资产闻风大跌，道指狂泄800点来源：每日经济新闻美债收益率倒挂引发经济衰退担忧，避险情绪重燃，欧美股市全线重挫。道指大跌逾800点，创年内最大单日跌幅，能源股、金融股、科技股跌幅居前。斯伦贝谢$(SLB)$跌逾6%，埃克森美孚$(XOM)$跌近4%，花旗$(C)$跌逾5%；Facebook$(FB)$、奈飞跌逾4%。欧股全线收跌，斯托克600指数跌...

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乐口福
2021-02-26
乐口福
股灾近在眼前…

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U.S. Debt \"Nuclear Bomb Level\" Inverted, Dow Jones Industrial Average Discharges 800 Points","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"原标题：黑天鹅再现！美债“核弹级”倒挂，风险资产闻风大跌，道指狂泄800点\n来源：每日经济新闻\n美债收益率倒挂引发经济衰退担忧，避险情绪重燃，欧美股市全线重挫。道指大跌逾800点，创年内最大单日跌幅，能源股、金融股、科技股跌幅居前。斯伦贝谢$(SLB)$跌逾6%，埃克森美孚$(XOM)$跌近4%，花旗$(C)$跌逾5%；Facebook$(FB)$、奈飞跌逾4%。欧股全线收跌，斯托克600指数跌1.7%，盘中一度刷新2月以来新低。\n美东时间本周三早间，10年期美债和2年期美债收益率出现自2007年10月以来的首次倒挂，这也被市场视为经济衰退的可靠指标。同时，30年期美债收益率也跌至历史低点的2.015%。此外，整个欧洲的收益率也普遍下跌，10年期德国国债收益率进一步跌至-0.65%的历史低点。这表明随着投资者涌入避险资产，人们对全球经济的担忧日益加剧。\n投资者通常特别关注10年期和2年期国债收益率之间的息差，因为在过去50年的每次衰退之前，10年期和2年期美债收益率都出现了倒挂，尽管经济衰退往往需要数月甚至数年的时间才会到来。\n瑞信称，衰退平均发生在2年期-10年底收益率倒挂22个月之后，最快的一次衰退发生在信号发出后短短14个月后。\n\nLoyola Marymount University经济学家Sung Won Sohn表示，2年期与10年期收益率的倒挂预测经济走势准度很高。在战后的9次衰退中，成功预示了7次，准度达到近78%。因此，如果两者开始倒挂，预计经济将在一年内陷入衰退。\n除了2年期和10年期的美债收益率倒挂外，北京时间周三午后，2年期英国国债和10年期英国国债的收益率也出现了倒挂，但分析师认为，这反映出的是市场对英国脱欧的担忧。就目前而言，美联储的货币政策也受到市场的密切关注，许多投资者担心美联储可能会犯下政策方面的错误，即降息得太慢，不能及时对美国经济增长的不确定性做出回应。\n\n德国十年期国债收益率创下新低至-0.623%。欧洲主要发达经济体的国债收益率在8月14日全面转向。\n美债收益率倒挂引发经济衰退担忧，避险情绪重燃，欧美股市全线重挫。\n道指跌逾800点，创年内最大单日跌幅。能源股、金融股、科技股跌幅居前，斯伦贝谢跌逾6%，埃克森美孚、雪佛龙$(CVX)$跌近4%；花旗跌逾5%，高盛$(GS)$、摩根大通$(JPM)$、美国银行$(BAC)$跌逾4%；Facebook、奈飞跌逾4%，亚马逊$(AMZN)$、微软$(MSFT)$跌逾3%，苹果公司跌3%。瑞幸咖啡跌16.7%，二季度亏损同比扩大。\n\n截至收盘，道指跌3.05%报25479.42点，标普500跌2.93%报2840.6点，纳指跌3.02%报7773.94点。\n热门中概股全线收跌，阿里巴巴跌1.13%，京东$(JD)$跌3.36%，百度$(BIDU)$跌2.6%，拼多多$(PDD)$跌0.93%，蔚来汽车跌8.1%，网易$(NTES)$涨0.49%，瑞幸咖啡$(LK)$跌16.74%，迅雷$(XNET)$逆市涨28.64%。\n能源股全线收跌，埃克森美孚跌3.99%，雪佛龙跌3.79%，康菲石油$(COP)$跌3.86%，斯伦贝谢跌6.58%，EOG能源跌4.47%。\n金融股全线收跌，摩根大通跌4.17%，高盛跌4.2%，花旗跌5.28%，摩根士丹利$(MS)$跌3.37%，美国银行跌4.69%，富国银行$(WFC)$跌4.33%，伯克希尔$(BRK.A)$哈撒韦跌1.5%。\n欧股全线收跌，德国DAX指数跌2.19%报11492.66点，法国CAC40指数跌2.08%报5251.3点，英国富时100指数跌1.42%报7147.88点。\n\n欧洲斯托克600指数跌1.7%，盘中一度刷新2月以来新低。所有板块均录得下跌，科技股指数跌3%。汽车股指数紧随其后，下跌2.8%。债券收益率走低则拖累银行股指数跌至逾三年低点。 斯托克600指数本月迄今已累计下跌逾5%，有望赶超5月份5.7%的跌幅，后者是三年多来最大月跌幅。\n受政治危机困扰，意大利股指跌超2%。\n美债收益率倒挂引发经济衰退担忧，拖累油价走低。全球经济数据疲软、美国原油库存意外增加拖累油价走低。NYMEX原油期货收跌3.77%报54.95美元/桶。\n\n避险情绪再度高涨助推黄金再度拉升，黄金期货涨0.86%。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":368351940,"gmtCreate":1614295124480,"gmtModify":1703475901692,"author":{"id":"3517872539523428","authorId":"3517872539523428","name":"乐口福","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a693f32fd1544e9680ceedb2d290ac2e","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3517872539523428","authorIdStr":"3517872539523428"},"htmlText":"股灾近在眼前…","listText":"股灾近在眼前…","text":"股灾近在眼前…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368351940","repostId":1959347453,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":12,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1959347453"}