高盛“语出惊人”：小心“陷阱”，美联储明年可能加速加息！

华尔街见闻2022-12-21

高盛认为明年美国经济衰退的可能性为35%，如果经济衰退是对抗通胀的唯一方法，那么美联储可能需要在明年加速加息。高盛认为，美联储将加息速度降至50个基点可能只是一个“速度陷阱”。高盛经济学家Joseph Briggs在最新的报告中指出，随着今年货币紧缩政策带给市场的冲击逐步消失，美联储有可能在明年再次加快加息步伐，预计明年经济衰退的可能性为35%。媒体分析认为，在过去的二十年里，美联储主要通过提高...

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精彩评论

Santi小汤
2022-12-21
Santi小汤
高盛吗？妥了妥了
藥瀚
2022-12-21
藥瀚
天天吓唬
旷世猛男
2022-12-21
旷世猛男
稳了

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因此，总的来说，我们仍然认为明年的国内生产总值将增长约1%。同时，Briggs认为美联储有可能需要在2023年再次加大加息速度，因为劳动力市场的降温格外的滞后。此外，Briggs指出，美联储最爱的美国核心PCE物价指数通常在加息的三到六个月内反应最大，同时在加息的3-4个季度后工资增长才会逐渐显现，因此工资驱动的通货膨胀会更加滞后。Briggs称：具体而言，我们估计2-3个季度后对工作岗位和员工需求的一半影响才会出现，需要3-4个季度才能出现工资增长，因此工资驱动的通货膨胀会更加滞后。因此，高盛认为2023年经济衰退的可能性只有35%。媒体分析指出，在过去的二十年里，美联储主要通过提高利率来对抗通货膨胀，直到就业市场降温。这几乎总是伴随着经济衰退，如果导致经济衰退是对抗通胀的唯一方法，那么美联储实际上可能需要在明年继续加息。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":623457563,"gmtCreate":1671622957852,"gmtModify":1671622959908,"author":{"id":"3491292989404422","authorId":"3491292989404422","name":"Santi小汤","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daa66a5fafca2039a62e8cd28e4a46ff","vip":2,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3491292989404422","idStr":"3491292989404422"},"htmlText":"高盛吗？妥了妥了","listText":"高盛吗？妥了妥了","text":"高盛吗？妥了妥了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623457563","repostId":1199803773,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":623457197,"gmtCreate":1671622804220,"gmtModify":1671622805870,"author":{"id":"3529885058817190","authorId":"3529885058817190","name":"藥瀚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b1e1625f113ae747649f2e22e71b5b","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3529885058817190","idStr":"3529885058817190"},"htmlText":"天天吓唬","listText":"天天吓唬","text":"天天吓唬","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623457197","repostId":1199803773,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":623423829,"gmtCreate":1671613398061,"gmtModify":1671613399651,"author":{"id":"3539229655408025","authorId":"3539229655408025","name":"旷世猛男","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e5060505138cbcb3f792d17b7a4413","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3539229655408025","idStr":"3539229655408025"},"htmlText":"稳了","listText":"稳了","text":"稳了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623423829","repostId":1199803773,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":11,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":5,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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