高盛“语出惊人”：小心“陷阱”，美联储明年可能加速加息！

华尔街见闻2022-12-21

高盛认为明年美国经济衰退的可能性为35%，如果经济衰退是对抗通胀的唯一方法，那么美联储可能需要在明年加速加息。高盛认为，美联储将加息速度降至50个基点可能只是一个“速度陷阱”。高盛经济学家Joseph Briggs在最新的报告中指出，随着今年货币紧缩政策带给市场的冲击逐步消失，美联储有可能在明年再次加快加息步伐，预计明年经济衰退的可能性为35%。媒体分析认为，在过去的二十年里，美联储主要通过提高...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

Santi小汤
2022-12-21
Santi小汤
高盛吗？妥了妥了
藥瀚
2022-12-21
藥瀚
天天吓唬
旷世猛男
2022-12-21
旷世猛男
稳了

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199803773?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37d43f47ff4637f33c2675f14c1cc937","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2022-12-21 16:41","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1199803773","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"高盛“语出惊人”：小心“陷阱”，美联储明年可能加速加息！","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>高盛认为明年美国经济衰退的可能性为35%，如果经济衰退是对抗通胀的唯一方法，那么美联储可能需要在明年加速加息。高盛认为，美联储将加息速度降至50个基点可能只是一个“速度陷阱”。高盛经济学家Joseph Briggs在最新的报告中指出，随着今年货币紧缩政策带给市场的冲击逐步消失，美联储有可能在明年再次加快加息步伐，预计明年经济衰退的可能性为35%。媒体分析认为，在过去的二十年里，美联储主要通过提高...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678013\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"wallstreetcn","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛“语出惊人”：小心“陷阱”，美联储明年可能加速加息！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛“语出惊人”：小心“陷阱”，美联储明年可能加速加息！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-21 16:41 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678013><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高盛认为明年美国经济衰退的可能性为35%，如果经济衰退是对抗通胀的唯一方法，那么美联储可能需要在明年加速加息。高盛认为，美联储将加息速度降至50个基点可能只是一个“速度陷阱”。高盛经济学家Joseph Briggs在最新的报告中指出，随着今年货币紧缩政策带给市场的冲击逐步消失，美联储有可能在明年再次加快加息步伐，预计明年经济衰退的可能性为35%。媒体分析认为，在过去的二十年里，美联储主要通过提高...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678013\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"GS","symbol_name":"高盛","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678013","article_id":"1199803773","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/37d43f47ff4637f33c2675f14c1cc937"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199803773","pubTimestamp":1671612077,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"高盛认为明年美国经济衰退的可能性为35%，如果经济衰退是对抗通胀的唯一方法，那么美联储可能需要在明年加速加息。高盛认为，美联储将加息速度降至50个基点可能只是一个“速度陷阱”。高盛经济学家Joseph","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"Goldman Sachs \"speaks surprisingly\": Be careful of the \"trap\", the Federal Reserve may accelerate interest rate hikes next year!","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cd23cb44bccff9f8dba21cfaed6bac4","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"GS":0.9},"content_text":"高盛认为明年美国经济衰退的可能性为35%，如果经济衰退是对抗通胀的唯一方法，那么美联储可能需要在明年加速加息。高盛认为，美联储将加息速度降至50个基点可能只是一个“速度陷阱”。高盛经济学家Joseph Briggs在最新的报告中指出，随着今年货币紧缩政策带给市场的冲击逐步消失，美联储有可能在明年再次加快加息步伐，预计明年经济衰退的可能性为35%。媒体分析认为，在过去的二十年里，美联储主要通过提高利率来对抗通货膨胀，直到就业市场降温。这几乎总是伴随着经济衰退，如果经济衰退是对抗通胀的唯一方法，那么美联储实际上可能需要在明年继续加息。经济开始复苏了Briggs认为，现在最重要的是美联储收紧政策如何影响国债收益率、股票估值、货币强弱、企业借贷成本等金融状况，Briggs称：因为投资者认为美联储将继续放慢加息步伐，大多数投资者们估计利率峰值将达到5%至5.25% 左右的峰值。股市已从10月的低点小幅反弹，美国国债收益率/借贷成本已从11月初的高点回落。同时，Briggs指出，虽然美联储在12月再次加息，但金融条件已较上个月大幅放松。华尔街见闻此前提及，高盛认为基于目前的FCI水平（全球金融条件指数），金融条件对明年美国经济的拖累的可能性会大幅降低。这或将意味着美国经济将继续增长，明年的国内生产总值将增长约1%。报告指出：基于目前的FCI水平，金融条件的拖累可能会在明年大幅减少，这可能意味着经济增长将出人意料地上升。然而，10月份个人储蓄率下降到2.3%，但有几个理由让我们认为储蓄率将在明年反弹，包括：1.自住房和股票的负面财富效应；2.被压抑的储蓄对支出的影响减少。 因此，总的来说，我们仍然认为明年的国内生产总值将增长约1%。同时，Briggs认为美联储有可能需要在2023年再次加大加息速度，因为劳动力市场的降温格外的滞后。此外，Briggs指出，美联储最爱的美国核心PCE物价指数通常在加息的三到六个月内反应最大，同时在加息的3-4个季度后工资增长才会逐渐显现，因此工资驱动的通货膨胀会更加滞后。Briggs称：具体而言，我们估计2-3个季度后对工作岗位和员工需求的一半影响才会出现，需要3-4个季度才能出现工资增长，因此工资驱动的通货膨胀会更加滞后。因此，高盛认为2023年经济衰退的可能性只有35%。媒体分析指出，在过去的二十年里，美联储主要通过提高利率来对抗通货膨胀，直到就业市场降温。这几乎总是伴随着经济衰退，如果导致经济衰退是对抗通胀的唯一方法，那么美联储实际上可能需要在明年继续加息。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":623457563,"gmtCreate":1671622957852,"gmtModify":1671622959908,"author":{"id":"3491292989404422","authorId":"3491292989404422","name":"Santi小汤","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d2ff6a6e601c6f1d2b457921cff2c7","vip":2,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"高盛吗？妥了妥了","listText":"高盛吗？妥了妥了","text":"高盛吗？妥了妥了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623457563","repostId":1199803773,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":623457197,"gmtCreate":1671622804220,"gmtModify":1671622805870,"author":{"id":"3529885058817190","authorId":"3529885058817190","name":"藥瀚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b1e1625f113ae747649f2e22e71b5b","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"天天吓唬","listText":"天天吓唬","text":"天天吓唬","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623457197","repostId":1199803773,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":623423829,"gmtCreate":1671613398061,"gmtModify":1671613399651,"author":{"id":"3539229655408025","authorId":"3539229655408025","name":"旷世猛男","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e5060505138cbcb3f792d17b7a4413","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"稳了","listText":"稳了","text":"稳了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623423829","repostId":1199803773,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":5,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1199803773"}