Pinterest: Buy The Dip

seekingalpha2021-04-21

Summary Pinterest stock recently took a significant tumble. My sense is the drop is short-sighted and overblown. I am an owner and am adding to my position through options. Photo by franckreporter/...

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精彩评论

StanleyPoh
2021-04-21
StanleyPoh
When
- HighOnCoffee:
  yes
geraldwwx
2021-04-21
geraldwwx
Great opportunity
- HighOnCoffee:
  yes
Jiaweiyeo
2021-04-21
Jiaweiyeo
Yes! Pinterest to the moon!
benlwh
2021-04-21
benlwh
Buy the dip yo!
- HighOnCoffee:
  yes
HongKai
2021-04-21
HongKai
Let’s go!!!
- HighOnCoffee:
  yes
ahpeh
2021-04-21
ahpeh
Comment
- 727972bd:
  Pls like my comment. Thx

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The company's stock has experienced swings that make the volatility of the overall market seem like child's play. The most recent development with Pinterest (PINS) came last week when Cleveland Research sounded a bearish note referencing some partners reporting a deceleration from Q4 levels. In the balance of the article, I will draw out why I believe the recent 13% 2-day drop represents a buying opportunity and what I am doing about it.\nTwo-day price action: Pinterest\nPrice and Performance\nIn one sense, investors, who bought just before the \"shelter in place\" orders became widespread, have to be pretty happy as the stock is up fourfold in that time. Yet, this rapid rise in price does not seem to be the result of \"irrational exuberance\". Rather, as you can see below, the price action has almost perfectly mirrored the increases the company has seen in revenue and net income over the last year.\nRevenue, Income, and Stock Price Appreciation: Pinterest\nOptimism Remains\nCertainly, striking an optimistic note 13 months ago when the stock was trading at $18/share and buying today are vastly different things. I took a decent dive into the financial metrics and direction of the company to convince myself. However, after considering margin momentum, balance sheet health, consistency of earnings beats, and earnings growth projections, my optimism remains, even at $72/share.\nThe Red Flag Was Really Yellow, Maybe Light Yellow\nOn Friday, Jason Aycock of Seeking Alpha published a brief release noting that Cleveland Research sees a weak end to the quarter. Actually, the release wasn't even that bearish - the title was - but that headline sent the stock plunging almost immediately. It is worth noting that Aycock's last note stated that the same agencies who noted softness are actually optimistic about Pinterest's long-term prospects. In a tiny release, there was short-term pessimism with long-term optimism. Nothing, in my mind, to precipitate a 13% 2-day plunge.\nSo, what does it all mean? Well, first let's acknowledge the stock has had a huge run-up and certainly cannot be expected to keep that pace of appreciation forever. Hey, the stock is not cheap. It is trading at 92 times forward earnings and a pause or a pullback was inevitable. At the same time, even Aycock's report was more neutral than bearish and there are no tangible numbers being thrown around to signal an end to the growth story. The company still has a popular platform with significant international growth that effectively targets the demographic (25-54-year-old females) responsible for 80% of household purchase decisions.\nMetrics That Matter\nWith any growth company, I pay close attention to margin momentum and the cost of revenue. In very simple terms, I like to know how many dollars the company is spending to bring in a dollar of revenue. I also like to know what direction that metric is trending. Part of that answer is shown below as margins have essentially doubled in the last 12 months.\nSource: Pinterest Investor Day Presentation\nDiving a little further into specifics, we see that almost every major expense category, as it relates to sales, has declined significantly in the last 12 months. General administrative expenses have held serve while revenue has clearly outpaced sales, marketing, and R&D expenses.\nSource: Pinterest Investor Day Presentation\nFinally, from an investor standpoint, I think a couple of other metrics are worth considering. With any young fast-growing company, I think it is worthwhile to pay attention to the company's path to profitability as well as its financial fortitude. The first part of that equation is already in the books as the company is already profitable. Secondly, for a growth company, Pinterest sports a very healthy balance sheet. Growth is not bleeding cash. In fact, Pinterest is debt-free and has been steadily increasing its cash position.\nData by YCharts\nMicrosoft - \"I'm Good\"\nAdding to my comfort level is that according to Forbes Magazine, Microsoft (MSFT) tried to buy Pinterest for $51 billion at the beginning of the year. That number represents about a 10% premium to today's stock price. When management essentially responded with a \"No, I'm good\", the obvious conclusion is that management feels its company is worth more than the offering price.\nGrowth... and Value?\nPinterest has been in rapid growth mode for the last two years and while that growth will inevitably slow, growth projections for the next 3-5 years are still above average. How does that jive with the share price? Well, one metric I often utilize is EPS estimates two years out. With that as a measuring stick, Pinterest is showing a two-year forward PE projection of 35.24. While that is not necessarily cheap, it does not seem overpriced either. A quick comparison to PayPal (PYPL) and Square (SQ) shows that Pinterest trades at a slight discount to PayPal and about a third of the valuation of Square. I do understand that these are not apples-to-apples comparisons, but one could reasonably argue that Pinterest has an even better chance to meet or exceed growth projections than the other companies in the chart.\nForward Estimates for Pinterest, Square, and PayPal\nHow I'm Playing It\nWith its current valuation and unique social media niche, I believe that Pinterest has a better than average chance of beating or exceeding expectations over the next 3-5 years. As such, I see the stock as sitting somewhere between fairly priced and being a bargain. I already have a modest position in the stock. I have utilized the price drop to take a couple of options positions. The most recent position was one this morning in which I sold a one-week $69.50 call for $1.40, representing a potential cost basis of $68.10. In the end, I believe that Pinterest, at its current price, represents a solid long-term opportunity with compelling options plays right now.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":378171019,"gmtCreate":1619013367032,"gmtModify":1634289224081,"author":{"id":"3574808114234183","authorId":"3574808114234183","name":"StanleyPoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0902fe205579a01761881c3d7f80124","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574808114234183","authorIdStr":"3574808114234183"},"htmlText":"When","listText":"When","text":"When","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378171019","repostId":1199672346,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4094601,"gmtCreate":1619016395963,"gmtModify":1635514629176,"authorId":3581757014858199,"author":{"id":3581757014858199,"idStr":"3581757014858199","authorId":3581757014858199,"name":"HighOnCoffee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/712f5ae709a47658c3b8b2ed5c5af556","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":378171019,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yes","text":"yes","html":"yes"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":378129344,"gmtCreate":1619012090988,"gmtModify":1634289242262,"author":{"id":"3555322280934257","authorId":"3555322280934257","name":"geraldwwx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bccdb31724278699a26408ea1426d1d2","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3555322280934257","authorIdStr":"3555322280934257"},"htmlText":"Great opportunity&nbsp;","listText":"Great opportunity&nbsp;","text":"Great opportunity","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378129344","repostId":1199672346,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4094603,"gmtCreate":1619016402115,"gmtModify":1635514629051,"authorId":3581757014858199,"author":{"id":3581757014858199,"idStr":"3581757014858199","authorId":3581757014858199,"name":"HighOnCoffee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/712f5ae709a47658c3b8b2ed5c5af556","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":378129344,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yes","text":"yes","html":"yes"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":378187590,"gmtCreate":1619011357710,"gmtModify":1634289249378,"author":{"id":"3573971289807577","authorId":"3573971289807577","name":"Jiaweiyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8462f92e57666f0a1c33313146f61c9a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573971289807577","authorIdStr":"3573971289807577"},"htmlText":"Yes! Pinterest to the moon!","listText":"Yes! Pinterest to the moon!","text":"Yes! Pinterest to the moon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378187590","repostId":1199672346,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":378182385,"gmtCreate":1619011113347,"gmtModify":1634289251326,"author":{"id":"3573964806596144","authorId":"3573964806596144","name":"benlwh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e34173af580a6e71b56f222ea75c39","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573964806596144","authorIdStr":"3573964806596144"},"htmlText":"Buy the dip yo!","listText":"Buy the dip yo!","text":"Buy the dip yo!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378182385","repostId":1199672346,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4094597,"gmtCreate":1619016386851,"gmtModify":1635514629548,"authorId":3581757014858199,"author":{"id":3581757014858199,"idStr":"3581757014858199","authorId":3581757014858199,"name":"HighOnCoffee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/712f5ae709a47658c3b8b2ed5c5af556","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":378182385,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yes","text":"yes","html":"yes"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":378115355,"gmtCreate":1619010364377,"gmtModify":1634289256287,"author":{"id":"3574851811906071","authorId":"3574851811906071","name":"HongKai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d299e4c7e29d58fbdd9a707e1d0d24d1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574851811906071","authorIdStr":"3574851811906071"},"htmlText":"Let’s go!!!","listText":"Let’s go!!!","text":"Let’s go!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378115355","repostId":1199672346,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4094604,"gmtCreate":1619016408251,"gmtModify":1635514628928,"authorId":3581757014858199,"author":{"id":3581757014858199,"idStr":"3581757014858199","authorId":3581757014858199,"name":"HighOnCoffee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/712f5ae709a47658c3b8b2ed5c5af556","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":378115355,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yes","text":"yes","html":"yes"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":378111200,"gmtCreate":1619010092300,"gmtModify":1634289258372,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573260346980588","authorIdStr":"3573260346980588"},"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378111200","repostId":1199672346,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4102392,"gmtCreate":1619084391326,"gmtModify":1635513971699,"authorId":3563951615882018,"author":{"id":3563951615882018,"idStr":"3563951615882018","authorId":3563951615882018,"name":"727972bd","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":378111200,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Pls like my comment. Thx","text":"Pls like my comment. Thx","html":"Pls like my comment. Thx"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":17,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1199672346"}