Apple Stock: It Could Make Sense To Trim The Position

TheStreet2021-12-14

Apple stock could be a compelling long-term “buy and hold” play. However, the vicious rally of the past month may also mean that now is a good time to lock in some gains. Apple stock’s recent run has ...

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angskk
2021-12-14
angskk
Hodl
weijie123
2021-12-14
weijie123
FUD
Thomas9413
2021-12-14
Thomas9413
Great
Eaglewings
2021-12-14
Eaglewings
Compared to other so called “growth” companies like Tesla etc, this mini run up is nothing. Apple has a lot more to offer and it’s notjust a “product” company! It created an Ecosystem over the decades…
- Thomas9413:
  Ok
JLCH
2021-12-14
JLCH
yo
- Carolir:
  .
- JLCH:
  yo
Pplymm
2021-12-14
Pplymm
Like

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However, the vicious rally of the past month may also mean that now is a good time to lock in some gains.\nApple stock’s recent run has ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-it-could-make-sense-to-trim-the-position\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"AAPL","symbol_name":"苹果","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-it-could-make-sense-to-trim-the-position","article_id":"1199650124","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199650124","pubTimestamp":1639458823,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Apple stock could be a compelling long-term “buy and hold” play. However, the vicious rally of the p","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"thestreet.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"translate_title":"苹果股票：减仓可能有意义","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9},"content_text":"Apple stock could be a compelling long-term “buy and hold” play. However, the vicious rally of the past month may also mean that now is a good time to lock in some gains.\nApple stock’s recent run has been impressive. Shares traded at nearly $180 in after-hours on Friday, December 10. If the stock price reaches $181.68 soon, per my estimates, Apple will have become the first company ever to be valued at $3 trillion.\nAmid investor enthusiasm, however, I fear that AAPL may have moved too fast since mid-November. With the stock having outperformed the tech-rich Nasdaq index by a whopping 19.5 percentage points in the past month, could now be a good time to trim the position and lock in some gains?\nFigure 1: Apple store in New York, NY.\nAAPL: impressive returns raise a flag\nTo start, I should make one thing very clear: in my opinion, Apple stock is a compelling long-term “buy and hold” play. In fact, I think that most growth-biased portfolios should be heavily exposed to shares of the Cupertino company, which I believe will outperform the rest of the market over the next, say, decade at least.\nThat said, I like to keep tabs on short term price behavior as well. After plugging in the numbers, I was astonished to see that AAPL has topped the performance of the Nasdaq (QQQ) over a one-month period by the most since late August 2020: outperformance of +19.5%. 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A player will certainly want to stand at 20 if the dealer’s up card is a 5, for example. Does it mean that, by doing so, the player is guaranteed to win that hand? No, it only means that the odds favor him or her.\nLikewise, buying Apple when the stock has handily outperformed the Nasdaq over the previous month has historically been disadvantageous. For example: over the past decade, AAPL has produced average one-year returns of +29%, assuming the stock is bought on any random day.\nHowever, this number would have been much lower if shares were bought on strength against the Nasdaq: only +8%, on average, following one-month outperformance of 10% or more against the benchmark. On the other end of the spectrum, average one-year return in AAPL would have been a much better +39% following one-month underperformance of -10% or worse against QQQ.\nThe observations above are consistent with the strategy of buying a stock on weakness to take advantage of an eventual rebound; and selling it on strength to lock in gains, some of which could have been produced by irrational bullishness.\nPanic and sell AAPL?\nAt this point, I should reemphasize that I remain an Apple bull. I would not sell all my stake in the company only because the share price climbed from $150 to $180 as quickly as it has.\nHowever, I believe that now is a good time to think about rebalancing the portfolio. 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