Tesla Q3: Blowout Possible Again

Seeking Alpha2021-10-19

Summary Q3 street estimates seems rather low. Margin strength could lead to large beat. Investors looking for comments on supply chain issues. AdrianHancu/iStock Editorial via Getty Images All eyes ...

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精彩评论

replaygoh
2021-10-20
replaygoh
noted
sseregit
2021-10-19
sseregit
If everyone is buying, who is selling?
- Jackyong84:
  🤔
telurbenedic
2021-10-19
telurbenedic
rest assured tesla will definitely beat your base case
DenisL
2021-10-19
DenisL
But it is so overbought now
Syee
2021-10-19
Syee
Like
- Etet1985:
  ok
BoonHuat
2021-10-19
BoonHuat
Nice.
- Silverlitz:
  🚀

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Recently, the company announced record production and deliveries for the quarter that smashed analyst expectations. However, street estimates for Q3 haven't risen as much as one might expect, which could lead to another blowout earnings report this week.\nFor the period, preliminary deliveries of 241,300 beat street estimates by nearly 20,000 units. In Q2 of this year, the average revenue per vehicle delivered (including regulatory credit sales) was just under $50,700. If you basically round off, the math tells you that a beat of that size should equal about an extra billion dollars in revenue. Going into the report, the street was exactly at $13 billion for its Q3 average, but take a look at where we are now.\nSource: Seeking Alpha analyst estimates page\nDespite the large deliveries beat, the street average hasn't even risen by $650 million, so the consensus seems to be a bit low right now. Additionally, the \"low\" estimate seems completely off base, as that would represent a decline over Q2's top line figure despite an extra roughly 40,000 deliveries. Don't forget, the sequential jump in Model S cash deliveries was around 6,000 units, which at an average selling price of $100,000 is an additional $600 million in revenue alone. Taking the low estimate out would increase the street average by $100 million. Unless there was some massive discounting going on or some prior period adjustment, any revenue estimates around or below $13 billion just don't seem logical.\nModel Y sales to Europe, more Model S sales (including the expensive Plaid), and a full quarter of price raises in the US should all be tailwinds. The standard range Y in China will provide somewhat of a headwind, along with a slightly stronger dollar in the quarter. However, Tesla may be able to potentially recognize hundreds of millions of dollars in deferred revenue related to its full self-driving feature as that program expanded a bit during the quarter. I also am projecting a $100 million sequential decline in credit sales.\nPerhaps the biggest question in the quarter will be margins. All of those price hikes, the mix of more Model Y and new Model S, and the ramp of production in China should be positives, potentially offsetting some or all supply chain or chip shortage inflation. In my base case, I'm assuming that total automotive gross margins increase by one percentage point, or a little more than half of the 190 basis points they jumped from Q1 to Q2. As I usually do, the table below shows a bear, base, and bull case, with dollar values in millions except per share amounts.\nI'm sure there will be critics who think I'm just trying to set a high bar so that Tesla cannot beat my base case. That is not true here, as on the revenue side I'm not even halfway between the street average and the high estimate on the street. On the bottom line, I'm not even calling for Tesla to beat by as much as it did in Q2 (47 cents). Also, using the average jump from Q2 to Q3 non-GAAP earnings per share over the past three years would put us a bit above $2 per share, and I'm still calling for a one handle there. For Tesla to miss estimates on the bottom line, gross margins would have to drop by about a percentage point sequentially. Even then, a little revenue upside or savings on the operating expense lines could still fuel a bottom line beat.\nThe other major item investors will be watching for is an update on Tesla's production facilities. It appears that Shanghai 3/Y production is now greater than Fremont's, and the Berlin and Texas factories are still on track to open this year. The company needs these facilities to come online in the next few months if it wants to hit a 50% yearly growth rate for 2022, likely meaning over 1.3 million deliveries. Any Tesla-specific delays that linger meaningfully into the new year may also impact other new products (Semi, Cybertruck, new Roadster) that have already been delayed a bit, as well as allowing the competition to potentially steal some market share. In the past few days, Tesla removed the Cybertruck's specifications and prices from its website. This may have to do with surging commodity costs since that product was unveiled, and it likely means Tesla will raise prices when production finally starts.\nAs for Tesla shares, they are currently in a very nice uptrend and have broken solidly above $800 after the Q3 delivery report. As the chart below shows, the 50-day moving average (pink line) has crossed back above its longer term counterpart (200-day in purple). The stock closed Friday less than $60 from its all-time high, so the only concern here might be that the earnings report could be the old \"buy the rumor, sell the news\" type of event.\nSource: Yahoo! Finance\nTesla is set to report Q3 earnings this week, and it would not surprise me if we see the company beat again. Given the sharp sequential rise in deliveries, the street seems a bit low with some of its estimates, and any margin increases would likely mean a significant bottom line beat. Investors will be looking for updates on production capacities, not only to see if Berlin and Texas are close to being ready, but to start thinking about how far over one million deliveries Tesla could get next year. It certainly will be interesting to see the stock's reaction afterwards, as the recent rally may mean investors are pricing in another big beat.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":859150770,"gmtCreate":1634681752554,"gmtModify":1634681831007,"author":{"id":"3582963095283492","authorId":"3582963095283492","name":"replaygoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d47b21291424a3d55039334a8de5cdb9","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582963095283492","authorIdStr":"3582963095283492"},"htmlText":"noted","listText":"noted","text":"noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859150770","repostId":1198851965,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":859901834,"gmtCreate":1634646905671,"gmtModify":1634647004070,"author":{"id":"4089702876678730","authorId":"4089702876678730","name":"sseregit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/709c009663308448b5b4073818d36e48","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4089702876678730","authorIdStr":"4089702876678730"},"htmlText":"If everyone is buying, who is selling?&nbsp;","listText":"If everyone is buying, who is selling?&nbsp;","text":"If everyone is buying, who is selling?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859901834","repostId":1198851965,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6253919,"gmtCreate":1634650106480,"gmtModify":1634650106517,"authorId":3582953185217649,"author":{"id":3582953185217649,"idStr":"3582953185217649","authorId":3582953185217649,"name":"Jackyong84","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d46bc6e7215811b3fb3194c0e514231","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":859901834,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"🤔","text":"🤔","html":"🤔"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":859909106,"gmtCreate":1634646681327,"gmtModify":1634650218221,"author":{"id":"3579862405941731","authorId":"3579862405941731","name":"telurbenedic","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f234fd01c2b897b872eb1140f0c7e1de","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579862405941731","authorIdStr":"3579862405941731"},"htmlText":"rest assured tesla will definitely beat your base case","listText":"rest assured tesla will definitely beat your base case","text":"rest assured tesla will definitely beat your base case","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859909106","repostId":1198851965,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":859077855,"gmtCreate":1634646440438,"gmtModify":1634646441062,"author":{"id":"4088158505984320","authorId":"4088158505984320","name":"DenisL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d13e043c2c38e5d7bfd53d016d5c6bf","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4088158505984320","authorIdStr":"4088158505984320"},"htmlText":"But it is so overbought now&nbsp;","listText":"But it is so overbought now&nbsp;","text":"But it is so overbought now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859077855","repostId":1198851965,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":859041545,"gmtCreate":1634644532701,"gmtModify":1634644533011,"author":{"id":"3586941727436981","authorId":"3586941727436981","name":"Syee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586941727436981","authorIdStr":"3586941727436981"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859041545","repostId":1198851965,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6253855,"gmtCreate":1634649709264,"gmtModify":1634649709378,"authorId":3584157211271817,"author":{"id":3584157211271817,"idStr":"3584157211271817","authorId":3584157211271817,"name":"Etet1985","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":859041545,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>ok</u>","text":"<u>ok</u>","html":"<u>ok</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":859054137,"gmtCreate":1634643801082,"gmtModify":1634644031401,"author":{"id":"3574549633778650","authorId":"3574549633778650","name":"BoonHuat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f64154b666040668c472fc3731becde7","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574549633778650","authorIdStr":"3574549633778650"},"htmlText":"Nice.","listText":"Nice.","text":"Nice.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859054137","repostId":1198851965,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6253822,"gmtCreate":1634649451143,"gmtModify":1634649451180,"authorId":3570362135363824,"author":{"id":3570362135363824,"idStr":"3570362135363824","authorId":3570362135363824,"name":"Silverlitz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abc7af211be1f2d501fd1885af02f33e","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":859054137,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"🚀","text":"🚀","html":"🚀"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":158,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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