黄金的下一个目标价位，2300，2500，3000？

金十数据2020-08-05

摸不清突破新高后黄金接下来到底会如何走？这些投行的分析或许可以参考。美国银行4月份的时候曾发布了一篇名为《美联储无法印制黄金》的报告，将18个月后的黄金价格目标从2000美元/盎司提高至3000美元/盎司。当时的金价还是1600美元左右，这个预测看上去有点危言耸听。但周三现货黄金一度涨至2035美元的高位，3000美元/盎司的目标价位似乎也不是那么遥不可及了；美国银行7月底就曾再度重申了这一...

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免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

Kay1535
2020-08-06
Kay1535
美元很稳定，年通胀只有2~3个点？！呵呵，美元对黄金，年贬值超过8个点！未来还将更高！
宝武集团
2020-08-06
宝武集团
2300最桂价位投资
李李符
2020-08-06
李李符
[强] [强] [强]
玩主
2020-08-06
玩主
撸羊毛的节奏吧？
- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
zfr135
2020-08-05
zfr135
没有最高，只有更高
- 雪怀观察:
  恭喜中奖

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3000?","themeId":"70cabc31fc72459eaf7c7d3e509067cc","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a021c03bb314916d83816127df54db20","symbols_score_info":{"GCmain":0.9},"content_text":"摸不清突破新高后黄金接下来到底会如何走？这些投行的分析或许可以参考。\n\n美国银行4月份的时候曾发布了一篇名为《美联储无法印制黄金》的报告，将18个月后的黄金价格目标从2000美元/盎司提高至3000美元/盎司。当时的金价还是1600美元左右，这个预测看上去有点危言耸听。\n但周三现货黄金一度涨至2035美元的高位，3000美元/盎司的目标价位似乎也不是那么遥不可及了；美国银行7月底就曾再度重申了这一价格预期。美国银行如此坚定看涨黄金的理由是什么呢？该行的宏观分析师、大宗商品分析师和技术分析师纷纷从他们的专业角度给出了回答。\n首先，从宏观环境来看，低利率和规模前所未有的货币和财政刺激措施有利于金价上涨。美银利率策略主管Mark Caban表示：\n\n “美联储在未来六个月都不会谈论通货膨胀的上行风险。我甚至担心他们在未来六年中都不会考虑抑制通胀上升，因此低利率可能会持续。”\n\n除了低利率将利好不生息的黄金资产外，该行大宗商品团队的迈克尔·哈特奈特（Michael Hartnett）还指出，前所未有规模的经济刺激措施也将提振金价，宽松的货币环境是金价上涨的有力助推因素。他说：\n\n “今年迄今已经宣布的货币和财政刺激措施总额达20万亿美元，占全球GDP的20％以上。其中包括8万亿美元的货币刺激政策和12万亿美元的财政刺激。它们会对资产价格产生影响。”\n\n3月金融市场崩盘的时候，多个金融资产的价格发生了暴跌。自3月低点以来，全球股票上涨了40％以上，市值增加了近30万亿美元；油价上涨了约70％-80％；相比之下，现货黄金今年以来还只上涨了38%。”\n从历史上看，十年前的黄金牛市也是美联储介入，营造出宽松的货币环境后才开启的。\n\n该行大宗商品和衍生品策略主管弗朗西斯科·布兰奇（Francisco Blanch）则指出，从需求端来看，金价上涨的支撑很坚实。他表示，到目前为止的黄金牛市还是一个由投资者主导的上涨。\n布兰奇指出，投资者对黄金的投资需求占总需求的比重已从第一季度的约25％增至第二季度的约45％，几乎增加了一倍。我们预计在接下来的6到12个月中，这种情况将继续下去。\n\n此外，布兰奇还指出疫情刚开始的一段时间，各国央行出于流动性考虑保留了现金，并减少了对黄金的购买。据世界黄金协会的数据，上半年全球各国央行总需求为233吨，较2019年创纪录的同期水平减少39%。自2009年以来，各国央行大量买入黄金一直是金价的支撑。\n现在这一需求端的支撑有望回归，下半年俄罗斯等国的央行都开始增加了对黄金的购买。俄罗斯央行的数据显示，俄罗斯6月黄金储备升至1307.9亿美元。白俄罗斯央行7月1日黄金储备为87.96亿美元，6月1日为78.79亿美元。\n\n此外，上半年珠宝需求下降的部分原因是商店关门和交通限制。以及消费者的收入下降也是一个重要原因。随着经济重启步伐加快，这些对黄金的消费需求也有望回升，\n从技术角度看，该行的金属策略师Michael Widmer稍微保守一点，认为黄金的目标价格为2500美元/盎司。他说：\n\n 从美元指数和十年期国债收益率的水平来看，如果美元指数达到90且实际利率为-2%，我们预计黄金将涨至2500美元/盎司。若美元指数为85且实际利率为-1.75%，或者美元指数为80且实际利率为-1.5%，我们对金价的预期也是开始2500美元/盎司。\n\n近期关注黄金的投行还有很多，美银给出的目标价格算是最高的，更多的投行对金价的下一个目标价位则是2300美元/盎司。\n瑞银认为，黄金价格可能在短期内超涨，风险情景是涨至2300美元/盎司，金价在2000美元/盎司附近交投可能将成为“新常态”。\n花旗表示，短期金价目标为2100美元/盎司，预计未来6至12个月将达到2300美元/盎司。\n高盛也将12个月黄金价格预期从先前的2000美元/盎司上调到2300美元/盎司，白银价格预期从先前的22美元/盎司上调至30美元/盎司。\n澳新银行表示，高度建设性背景下，我行将6-12个月目标价提高至2300美元/盎司，在可预见的未来实际收益率为负。该行认为：\n\n “黄金仍然对利率和通胀高度敏感，地缘政治紧张局势以及对全球复苏停滞的担忧也增强了其吸引力。但如果未来几个季度经济景气好转，投资者需求持续增长的障碍可能会使通往2300美元预期的道路变得艰难。”\n\n附金十独家整理投行预期：","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":945788854,"gmtCreate":1596680193778,"gmtModify":1704213157601,"author":{"id":"3500875970099663","authorId":"3500875970099663","name":"Kay1535","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"美元很稳定，年通胀只有2~3个点？！呵呵，美元对黄金，年贬值超过8个点！未来还将更高！","listText":"美元很稳定，年通胀只有2~3个点？！呵呵，美元对黄金，年贬值超过8个点！未来还将更高！","text":"美元很稳定，年通胀只有2~3个点？！呵呵，美元对黄金，年贬值超过8个点！未来还将更高！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/945788854","repostId":1197905000,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":945799458,"gmtCreate":1596668169974,"gmtModify":1704213112464,"author":{"id":"3514068381898040","authorId":"3514068381898040","name":"宝武集团","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4254873f7d4928b268d7a42338f74512","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75944ad144f2566ba526ce9b292d3cd2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"2300最桂价位投资","listText":"2300最桂价位投资","text":"2300最桂价位投资","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/945799458","repostId":1197905000,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":945799135,"gmtCreate":1596667965127,"gmtModify":1704213111430,"author":{"id":"3498644606033549","authorId":"3498644606033549","name":"李李符","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/945799135","repostId":1197905000,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":945706196,"gmtCreate":1596661499715,"gmtModify":1704213103345,"author":{"id":"3558294840040900","authorId":"3558294840040900","name":"玩主","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ae40dbd8adfb2dbeab39419639c9ba","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"撸羊毛的节奏吧？","listText":"撸羊毛的节奏吧？","text":"撸羊毛的节奏吧？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/945706196","repostId":1197905000,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":2725736,"gmtCreate":1596677340836,"gmtModify":1596677340836,"authorId":3527667803686145,"author":{"id":3527667803686145,"authorId":3527667803686145,"name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":945706196,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a 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