鲍威尔：必须超越模型去思考经济

华尔街见闻2023-11-08

周三，美联储主席鲍威尔在庆祝美联储研究和统计部门成立100周年的会议上致开幕词。鲍威尔表示，美联储必须有意愿去超越传统上用于预测经济的复杂数学模拟，而进行思考。“智力上的严谨必须与灵活性和敏捷性相结合。”鲍威尔指出，即使拥有最先进的模型，即使在相对平静的时期，经济状况也经常让我们感到惊讶。我们的经济灵活且充满活力，有时会受到不可预测的冲击，例如全球金融危机或流行病疫情。在这些时候，预测者必须跳出...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

Gen
2023-11-12
Gen
意思就是造假算什么必要时不择手段
我不是股神1
2023-11-09
我不是股神1
用嘴炮挽救美国经济
WAZG
2023-11-08
WAZG
关于看不见的手在指引经济活动中的技巧有一个重要推论：当政府阻止价格根据供求自发地调整时，它就限制了看不见的手对组成经济的千百家庭和企业进行协调的能力。
ruan_7128
2023-11-08
ruan_7128
老鲍又是半夜鸡叫了

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197884679?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909f0c076f3fff78497a5c9be00e5429","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2023-11-08 23:11","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","id":"1197884679","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"鲍威尔：必须超越模型去思考经济","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>周三，美联储主席鲍威尔在庆祝美联储研究和统计部门成立100周年的会议上致开幕词。鲍威尔表示，美联储必须有意愿去超越传统上用于预测经济的复杂数学模拟，而进行思考。“智力上的严谨必须与灵活性和敏捷性相结合。”鲍威尔指出，即使拥有最先进的模型，即使在相对平静的时期，经济状况也经常让我们感到惊讶。我们的经济灵活且充满活力，有时会受到不可预测的冲击，例如全球金融危机或流行病疫情。在这些时候，预测者必须跳出...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3701598\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"live_wallstreetcn","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>鲍威尔：必须超越模型去思考经济</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n鲍威尔：必须超越模型去思考经济\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-11-08 23:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3701598><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周三，美联储主席鲍威尔在庆祝美联储研究和统计部门成立100周年的会议上致开幕词。鲍威尔表示，美联储必须有意愿去超越传统上用于预测经济的复杂数学模拟，而进行思考。“智力上的严谨必须与灵活性和敏捷性相结合。”鲍威尔指出，即使拥有最先进的模型，即使在相对平静的时期，经济状况也经常让我们感到惊讶。我们的经济灵活且充满活力，有时会受到不可预测的冲击，例如全球金融危机或流行病疫情。在这些时候，预测者必须跳出...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3701598\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3701598","article_id":"1197884679","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/909f0c076f3fff78497a5c9be00e5429"],"rights":{"source":"live_wallstreetcn","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3701598","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197884679","pubTimestamp":1699456310,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"live_wallstreetcn","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"即使拥有最先进的模型，即使在相对平静的时期，经济状况也经常让我们感到惊讶。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"Powell: We must think beyond the model to think about the economy","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8e08814f5a2343db2b6d8db60046b6e","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1.1},"content_text":"周三，美联储主席鲍威尔在庆祝美联储研究和统计部门成立100周年的会议上致开幕词。鲍威尔表示，美联储必须有意愿去超越传统上用于预测经济的复杂数学模拟，而进行思考。“智力上的严谨必须与灵活性和敏捷性相结合。”鲍威尔指出，即使拥有最先进的模型，即使在相对平静的时期，经济状况也经常让我们感到惊讶。我们的经济灵活且充满活力，有时会受到不可预测的冲击，例如全球金融危机或流行病疫情。在这些时候，预测者必须跳出模型去进行思考。美联储研究和统计部门每年向联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）提供八次经济预测，以及对当前数据、政策和经济主题研究的最新更新。该部门目前由Stacey Tevlin领导，她是该部门的首位女性领导人，该部门聘用了数十名博士。新冠疫情后，美联储对经济的预测工作面临挑战：美联储工作人员在2021年的大部分时间里都坚称通胀的飙升是“暂时的”，之后通胀在2022年持续加速，并于当年6月达到CPI同比暴涨9.1%的峰值。今年3月美国发生了一系列银行倒闭后，美联储的工作人员们预测今年晚些时候美国将出现“温和衰退”，但几个月后放弃了这一预测。美国第二季度经济增长2.1%，与其长期趋势增长率相当，第三季度经济则以4.9%的增长率攀升，令美联储始料未及。鲍威尔表示，美联储的预测者们在最大的舞台上以最高的风险做这项工作，因为他们知道经济经常让我们感到惊讶，这项工作需要巨大的勇气和谦逊。鲍威尔周三的讲话并没有置评FOMC货币政策前景或美国经济前景。在11月初美联储会议后的发布会上，鲍威尔表示，美联储接近结束加息，正谨慎行事，考虑是否必须再加息，货币政策有限制性，但不确信限制已足够，未考虑降息。即使12月继续不加息，也不一定代表加息周期结束。美联储工作人员未将衰退重新纳入经济预测，降通胀可能需要经济进一步放缓。本周美联储多位高级官员密集讲话，其中两位高官美联储理事鲍曼和明尼阿波利斯联储主席Kashkari均发表了鹰派讲话，提到未来美联储依然可能加息。官员们普遍表示美国通胀仍然过高，抗击通胀是首要任务。多人提及，债市收益率上升导致金融环境收紧。美联储的官员们下次会议将于12月12日至13日举行。在此次会议前，美联储将看到有关零售销售、就业和通胀的最新报告。期货市场定价美联储几乎没有在12月加息的可能性，并预计美联储目前的基准利率水平5.25%-5.5%，是本轮紧缩周期的顶峰。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":240677558804632,"gmtCreate":1699777771155,"gmtModify":1699779382075,"author":{"id":"3470902837477446","authorId":"3470902837477446","name":"Gen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506432eb6796d99ed3959a819731b5d2","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"&nbsp;意思就是 造假算什么 必要时 不择手段","listText":"&nbsp;意思就是 造假算什么 必要时 不择手段","text":"意思就是 造假算什么 必要时 不择手段","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/240677558804632","repostId":1197884679,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":239346627342456,"gmtCreate":1699462515944,"gmtModify":1699463105976,"author":{"id":"3518325148926841","authorId":"3518325148926841","name":"我不是股神1","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"用嘴炮挽救美国经济","listText":"用嘴炮挽救美国经济","text":"用嘴炮挽救美国经济","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/239346627342456","repostId":1197884679,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":239325763358784,"gmtCreate":1699457420399,"gmtModify":1699459486851,"author":{"id":"4156578701723270","authorId":"4156578701723270","name":"WAZG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"关于看不见的手在指引经济活动中的技巧有一个重要推论：当政府阻止价格根据供求自发地调整时，它就限制了看不见的手对组成经济的千百家庭和企业进行协调的能力。","listText":"关于看不见的手在指引经济活动中的技巧有一个重要推论：当政府阻止价格根据供求自发地调整时，它就限制了看不见的手对组成经济的千百家庭和企业进行协调的能力。","text":"关于看不见的手在指引经济活动中的技巧有一个重要推论：当政府阻止价格根据供求自发地调整时，它就限制了看不见的手对组成经济的千百家庭和企业进行协调的能力。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/239325763358784","repostId":1197884679,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":239323762999384,"gmtCreate":1699456989026,"gmtModify":1699459467934,"author":{"id":"4131409357956500","authorId":"4131409357956500","name":"ruan_7128","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ad7f9c1716c3dead55c9cc240346dcb","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"老鲍又是半夜鸡叫了","listText":"老鲍又是半夜鸡叫了","text":"老鲍又是半夜鸡叫了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/239323762999384","repostId":1197884679,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":4,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.1","shortVersion":"4.25.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1197884679"}