Tesla Could Be On The Path To $2,500 By 2025

Seeking Alpha2022-01-13

SummaryTesla recently announced blockbuster production and deliveries numbers for the fourth quarter.The company smashed consensus analysts' expectations by 16% and expanded delivery numbers by a ...

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精彩评论

jolynnnnnnnn
2022-01-13
jolynnnnnnnn
Good afternoon ☀️
Deonc
2022-01-13
Deonc
This is a tremendous result. Keep it up. Please like and comment.
- jolynnnnnnnn:
  sure thing :)
OCA
2022-01-13
OCA
😂

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The company crushed consensus deliveries estimates by a whopping 16%. However, the company's share price slumped after the blockbuster report due to a broad market selloff. Tesla will report fourth quarter revenues and EPS in a couple of weeks, and while many analysts raised their forecast, I believe that the company can still beat consensus figures. Moreover, the company should continue to guide higher and report better than anticipated numbers as we advance in 2022 and beyond. Therefore, the company's stock price will likely move higher into earnings and should move on to new ATHs after the report. Additionally, Tesla's stock price should push substantially higher over the next several years as the company advances into the future.Tesla's Post-Deliveries Report SelloffYou would think that after such a blockbuster report, the company's stock price would fly higher and break out to new ATHs. However, that was not the case here. We saw an initial jump to $1,200, but a sharp reversal briefly knocked shares to below $1,000. It's important to note that this abrupt correction of around 20% essentially began when the Fed's hawkish minutes came over the wire. Therefore, the recent pullback in the stock was not Tesla related but resulted from a broader stock market decline. Now that market conditions appear to have stabilized, the company's stock should recover and proceed higher into Q4 earnings. Provided that the stock market continues to stabilize here, I expect Tesla's shares to break out to new ATHs following the upcoming earnings announcement.Tesla's Blockbuster NumbersTesla delivered308,600 total vehicles last quarter, a whopping 72% increase over last year. This report considerably topped consensus estimates for267,000 total vehicles. Tesla's stellar results indicate that demand for its cars remains highly robust. Moreover, the company's production capacity continues to expand, implying that Tesla's revenues should grow substantially in future years.Tesla's full-year numbers (936,172 total vehicles) illustrate how close the company came to selling one million cars last year. In total, the company's 2021 deliveries surpassed the previous year's results by a staggering 87%. In Q4, the company sold 11,750 Model S/X vehicles and 296,850 Model 3/Y cars.Tesla Worldwide Deliveries 2016-2021We see the phenomenal YoY growth in Tesla deliveries here. Remarkably, Tesla's deliveries have surged by more than 1,100% over the last five years. Given the company's past performance and rapid anticipated growth, we should continue to see substantial delivery increases in future years. Therefore, we should continue to see higher levels in Tesla's stock price as the company advances.What To Expect From Q4 EarningsLast quarter, my EPS estimate was off by one cent.So, let's see if we can hit the bullseye this time. The company delivered 11,750 Model S/X vehicles, of which 17% were subject to lease accounting. Therefore, Tesla sold around 9,753 cars in its Model S/X segment last quarter. Tesla's Model S/X segment average selling price (\"ASP\") has increased recently. Thus, we will apply an ASP of $115K for the Model S/X segment. Using this ASP provides us with an approximate$1.12 billion in revenues for Tesla's luxury upscale segment.In the Model 3/Y segment, leasing accounted for about 5% of deliveries. Therefore, last quarter, Tesla sold roughly 282,000 vehicles in its Model 3/Y unit. Implementing an ASP of $50K implies that Tesla derived approximately$14.1 billionin revenues from the Model 3/Y segment last quarter. Once we approximate Tesla's revenues, gross margin, and expenses in other businesses, we can estimate what the company should deliver in revenues and EPS for the fourth quarter.Tesla Q3 vs. Q4 EstimatesProvided Tesla's deliveries numbers and my ASP estimates, we arrived at $15.3 billion in revenues for Models S/3/X/Y sales alone. Once we added $450 million in leasing and $400 million in regulatory credit revenues, we came up to $16.15 billion in total automotive sales revenues. After we computed energy generation and storage plus Tesla's services and other segments, we arrived at an $18 billion revenue figure for Q4.While my revenue estimate is notably higher than the current$16.31 billion consensus number, my revenue figure is still lower than some higher-end calls that exceed $18.25 billion. If Tesla meets consensus figures, it will be a 52% YoY rise in revenues, and if the company meets my projections, we will see a 68% YoY surge in sales.Revenue EstimatesWe see that many analysts expect robust double-digit revenue growth to continue in future quarters and years. However, many analyst figures are still relatively low to what the company will likely achieve. After all, we continuously see upward revisions in Tesla's revenue and EPS estimates, and this trend will likely continue as the company progresses.EPS RevisionsWe see a wide range of EPS estimates for Q4, and in general, for Tesla. The mid-range is $2.28, while higher-end estimates go all the way up to around $3. My EPS estimate is $2.66, which is about 17% above consensus figures, representing a 233% YoY EPS increase.The Bottom LineTesla has shown a tenacity for surpassing analyst estimates in recent quarters. The company has exceeded consensus expectations by an average of14% in its last four quarters, and this trend of outperformance will likely continue. Moreover, Tesla delivered a much better than anticipated production and deliveries report for the fourth quarter. The results suggest that Tesla should provide more substantial Q4 revenues than many analysts envision. The revenue increase should translate to a better than anticipated EPS result, reflecting positively on Tesla's stock price. I expect Tesla to post revenues of around $18 billion with an EPS of about $2.66. This dynamic should enable Tesla's stock price to move to new ATHs. Moreover, as Tesla grows revenues and expands EPS in future years, its stock price should appreciate considerably.Here is what Tesla's financials could look like in future years:My higher EPS and share price appreciation estimates are more aggressive than my prior analyses. However, we see Tesla performing and delivering better than expected. Furthermore, I was overly conservative in my EPS projections in previous articles. Tesla could provide close to $30 in EPS in 2025, and even if we lower the company's forward P/E multiple substantially, we still arrive at a notably higher stock price than we see now. If Tesla continues delivering and surpassing analysts' expectations, I expect the company's stock price to be around $2,500 in 2025.Risks To TeslaRisks exist for Tesla, and there are quite a few. While I estimate that the company can earn close to $30 per share in 2025, the company is very far from such figures right now. Therefore, there's the risk that Tesla will not illustrate the kind of earnings growth I envision. A slowdown in demand, increased competition, supply issues, decreased growth, and other variables are all risks we should consider before betting on Tesla to grow EPS several-fold through 2025. Serious concerns could cause Tesla's valuation to lose altitude, and the company's share price could even head in reverse if any serious issues should arise. Therefore, one should consider the risks carefully before committing any capital to a Tesla investment.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":694555739,"gmtCreate":1642053225110,"gmtModify":1642053225264,"author":{"id":"3572946614001509","authorId":"3572946614001509","name":"jolynnnnnnnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a57c211e244dfbae9f8d7c0d2c8b547","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572946614001509","authorIdStr":"3572946614001509"},"htmlText":"Good afternoon ☀️","listText":"Good afternoon ☀️","text":"Good afternoon ☀️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694555739","repostId":1196267507,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":694552735,"gmtCreate":1642053015470,"gmtModify":1642053023437,"author":{"id":"3569316529855154","authorId":"3569316529855154","name":"Deonc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9aa45dd2eb58357f6477dcfb99d1415","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569316529855154","authorIdStr":"3569316529855154"},"htmlText":"This is a&nbsp;tremendous result. Keep it up. Please like and comment.&nbsp;","listText":"This is a&nbsp;tremendous result. Keep it up. Please like and comment.&nbsp;","text":"This is a tremendous result. Keep it up. Please like and comment.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694552735","repostId":1196267507,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7174673,"gmtCreate":1642053217921,"gmtModify":1642053217953,"authorId":3572946614001509,"author":{"id":3572946614001509,"idStr":"3572946614001509","authorId":3572946614001509,"name":"jolynnnnnnnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a57c211e244dfbae9f8d7c0d2c8b547","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":694552735,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"sure thing :)","text":"sure thing :)","html":"sure thing :)"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":694586540,"gmtCreate":1642044892380,"gmtModify":1642044892679,"author":{"id":"3575424174048922","authorId":"3575424174048922","name":"OCA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ed67c34f4cdc380936cc9945710bf76","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575424174048922","authorIdStr":"3575424174048922"},"htmlText":"😂&nbsp;","listText":"😂&nbsp;","text":"😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694586540","repostId":1196267507,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":15,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1196267507"}