2022年投资4大致命风险：通胀失控和美国加息在列

腾讯自选股 2021-12-14

导语：11月美国通胀率达到6.8%，创近40年新高。分析师们普遍认为，目前疫情叠加通胀以及美联储收紧货币政策或将导致明年美股波动较大；此外，脱欧危机也会对市场信心产生很大打击。 2021年还有十多天就过完了，美股的涨势基本上还是不错的：道指上涨了17.88%；纳斯达克指数上涨了21%；标普500指数上涨了25%。对于美股明年的表现，华尔街投行此前已给出预测。分析师称，综合前10大投行的观点来看...

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北纬1度线
2021-12-15
北纬1度线
应该好
嘞撸虎7
2021-12-15
嘞撸虎7
阅
Youn7276
2021-12-15
Youn7276
阅
Sam Ang
2021-12-14
Sam Ang
阅
jhanwei
2021-12-14
jhanwei
[微笑]

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href=https://wzq.tenpay.com/mp/v2/index.html?stat_data=4003000011#/information/detail?id=SN20211214202509775cc375&shareSource=fromApp&zxtype=1&appVersion=undefined><strong>腾讯自选股 </strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>导语：11月美国通胀率达到6.8%，创近40年新高。分析师们普遍认为，目前疫情叠加通胀以及美联储收紧货币政策或将导致明年美股波动较大；此外，脱欧危机也会对市场信心产生很大打击。\n\n2021年还有十多天就过完了，美股的涨势基本上还是不错的：道指上涨了17.88%；纳斯达克指数上涨了21%；标普500指数上涨了25%。\n对于美股明年的表现，华尔街投行此前已给出预测。分析师称，综合前10大投行的观点来看...</p>\n\n<a 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fatal risks of investment in 2022: runaway inflation and US interest rate hike are listed","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73e17db61a48c8e85cbb19f80108203d","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"导语：11月美国通胀率达到6.8%，创近40年新高。分析师们普遍认为，目前疫情叠加通胀以及美联储收紧货币政策或将导致明年美股波动较大；此外，脱欧危机也会对市场信心产生很大打击。\n\n2021年还有十多天就过完了，美股的涨势基本上还是不错的：道指上涨了17.88%；纳斯达克指数上涨了21%；标普500指数上涨了25%。\n对于美股明年的表现，华尔街投行此前已给出预测。分析师称，综合前10大投行的观点来看，预计2022年标普500指数目标点位在4400点至5300点之间。只有摩根士丹利一家认为明年标普500指数会下跌。其它9家券商全部看涨。\n分析称，相比2021年来说，2022年的经济环境可能会更加复杂。\n彭博对一些分析师做了调查。分析师们认为，美股明年或将面临4大致命风险。\n1、通胀失控\n还记得此前大家对美国2021年通胀率2%的目标预期吗？但实际情况却是，美国的通货膨胀率已连续6个月超过5%，11月的通胀率更是达到了6.8%，创下近40年的新高。\n彭博表示，受访者的平均预期是希望在2022年，美国的通胀能够重返2%的水平。但是这充满了不确定性，毕竟疫情没有消失，供应链不畅也没得到改善，而且人们的工资水平也在不断上涨。\n2、加息风险\n大家对这项风险的关注度仅次于通胀失控。加息意味着借贷成本上升。由于通胀高企，2022年美联储加息已无法避免。但是，加息对股市来说却是非常致命的风险。\n2013年至2018年期间，美联储也是进行了缩减QE和加息。这段时间内，股市也出现了抛售的情况，所以说加息对明年的美股来说就是最大的麻烦。\n最要命的是，现在美股处于极度被高估的状态，而且房价也在不断攀升。过去2年间，因为大规模放水刺激经济，导致美股许多处于亏损状态的成长股股价大幅飙升。所以一旦加息，这些公司将受到最大力度的冲击，这也是最近罗素2000指数不断下杀的重要原因。\n彭博调查数据显示，预计2022年美联储将加息3次。美联储可能会把利率最终升至1.25%附近。这将推动美债收益率上升。市场预计，到2023年美联储加息的动作可能才会完全结束。\n3、新冠病毒变异\n最近两年疫情的演进直接影响着美股的市场行情。德尔塔、奥密克戎等变种病毒的突然出现都会导致美股下跌。其中，新冠疫情的反弹对经济影响最大。\n彭博调查数据显示，预计2022年全球的经济增速将下行至4.2%，而此前的预期为4.7%。\n奥密克戎的传染性更强，但是致命性比德尔塔低。尽管如此，奥密克戎还是引发了市场的恐慌，并导致油价暴跌。\n目前仍无法预测新冠疫情什么时候结束。因为市场评估，时不时出现的变种病毒对美股而言就是不定时的炸弹，谁也不知道什么时候爆，在哪里爆。\n4、脱欧危机\n成员国宣布脱离欧元区这种事很少被媒体过多关注，但这同样是一种风险，只不过它距离许多投资者看似很远。\n记得当时英国宣布脱欧的时候就引发了市场的震荡。目前疫情叠加通胀以及美联储收紧货币政策，已让股市处于悬崖边上。如果爱尔兰或其它国家明年公投通过，退出欧元区，那么这将对市场的信心产生很大的打击。\n这些风险都是可预见的致命风险，虽然不一定真的发生。但是调整投资组合，以应对风险冲击，才是现在我们每个投资者都要慎重思考的问题。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":607683157,"gmtCreate":1639532823087,"gmtModify":1639532881808,"author":{"id":"3577005617035851","authorId":"3577005617035851","name":"北纬1度线","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4e2bd60feda0f7eb2d2f34c6b4dc130","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577005617035851","authorIdStr":"3577005617035851"},"htmlText":"应该好","listText":"应该好","text":"应该好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607683157","repostId":1196190976,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":607173978,"gmtCreate":1639517647495,"gmtModify":1639517647578,"author":{"id":"4092032122452460","authorId":"4092032122452460","name":"嘞撸虎7","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451ff62190f624c13c07b54476dd5930","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4092032122452460","authorIdStr":"4092032122452460"},"htmlText":"阅","listText":"阅","text":"阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607173978","repostId":1196190976,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":607170541,"gmtCreate":1639517055285,"gmtModify":1639517077843,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577393549070429","authorIdStr":"3577393549070429"},"htmlText":"阅","listText":"阅","text":"阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607170541","repostId":1196190976,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":607105453,"gmtCreate":1639494644100,"gmtModify":1639494644209,"author":{"id":"4095237511427410","authorId":"4095237511427410","name":"Sam 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