Palantir: The Great Reset

Seeking Alpha2022-02-18

SummaryAfter its direct listing shares skyrocketed to nearly $40, and have now returned to sub-$12 at the time of this writing.There is a host of reasons why the stock is still expensive.Revenue ...

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indietro_
2022-02-18
indietro_
Ok
- indietro_:
  O
Andr3
2022-02-18
Andr3
L
- Andr3:
  c
Valeriechan
2022-02-18
Valeriechan
f
- Valeriechan:
  x
bobbylim
2022-02-18
bobbylim
Btd?

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For years many of these stocks will lose money but invest heavily in their growth while seeing revenues increase dramatically. Sometimes that growth fades and the company never really transforms the world like it set out to do. Then there are times where for years the company loses money, but the internal metrics improve year after year and growth eventually is so strong profits roll in. Every great tech giant you know started out losing money. Picking winners and losers is easier said than done in the long term, but the key in our opinion is to look at what problems they solve, who their customers are, the growth, and to a lesser degree, valuation. One of the most controversial stocks in the market is Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The stock direct listed in 2020 and took off during the major tech rally into 2021. But in 2021, the stock began to fade, and today is back under $12. Has it come down enough? We think so, for the long-term investor. Even for traders, the potential of a dead cat bounce near-term is highly likely, but in the near-term, the stock is still expensive, even for high growth tech, but is much more reasonable compared to a few months ago. Thecompany just reported earnings, and the growth remains on track. The company is scratching the surface of profitability and is free cash flow positive. Customer count is growing and retention is strong. In short, we believe you can finally start buying here again.What goes up doesn't always come down, but Palantir stock sure didTake a look at the chart of Palantir since going live on the stock market in 2020:BAD BEAT InvestingAs you can see, the stock rocketed to all-time highs in February of 2021 and traded a bit sideways in the 20s for a few months before cratering in the fall and of 2021 into 2022 with the threat of rate hikes decimating the high revenue growth, little to no earnings tech. Palantir fits this bill pretty well. But you can look at the chart of many innovation names that are seeing massive revenue growth but make no money. They all have gotten crushed in the last few months. While Palantir stock has a number of risks, we think you can finally start to buy.The playTarget entry 1: $11.95-$12.15 40% of positionTarget entry 2: $10.80-$11.00 60% of positionStop loss: $9Target exit: $15Options recommendations: With premiums high in this volatile name selling puts is a strong strategy for income and/or defining entry. Consider the March 18th, 2022 $12 puts for $0.80-$0.85 in premium. Call option buying is pricey, but you can consider the August 19th, 2022 $14 strike for $1.60, then $1.20.DiscussionPalantir brings in its revenue under two reporting segments. These are the government and commercial segments. Its commercial revenue stream has grown at a rapid rate over the last year, while government results and the outlook have been a bit mixed. To improve sales, Palantir has expanded its sales team and they have been working to secure new orders. In our opinion, this paid off.Performance was strong andahead of consensus estimates. Total revenue grew 34% year-over-year to $433 million, beating estimates by almost $15 million. The commercial revenue continues to grow at a great pace, rising 132% in 2021, and up 47% in Q4 vs last year. While the Government revenues have slowed their growth somewhat, they still rose 26% from last year, and the company added a total of 34 net new customers in the quarter across both segments.Now, here is the thing. The company is just barely starting to make money. That means the stock is expensive, like so many other growth tech names. More on that in a moment. While the company lost $59 million, adjusted income from operations was $124 million, while the company is free cash flow positive, seeing $104 million in the quarter. That is a big positive. For the year, adjusted free cash flow was $424 million. We love free cash flow. This is a very big positive. The company squeaked out a $0.02 adjusted EPS result. It is something.Now, as for the valuation, it is often best to look at price to sales ratios for high-growth tech. Take a look at Seeking Alpha'sgradeson these measures:Seeking AlphaA bit laughable really, as all high-growth tech seemingly have 'failing' grades, but the metrics are what matters. At 18X sales, the stock is still expensive, factoring in the drop in shares to under $12, and we are still pricey at 15X-16X, but this is much more reasonable compared to when the stock was in the $30s. 90X FWD EPS, well, the company is working to get to being profitable, but we do like the hidden positive of a 1.0X PEG ratio. In terms ofgrowth,these measures look a lot better with 38% FWD revenue growth expected, and 350% levered free cash flow growth going forward. These fundamentals continue to improve for the company.Of course, the stock is still not without risk. First, even after the precipitous drop, shares are pricey as we mentioned. The company also could see government slash spending in tough times, though, some would argue that their technology saves the government money. We see the commercials sales growing though a recession could lead to reduced spend on tech companies like Palantir that try and help solve problems for companies.Perhaps one of the biggest issues many people have with this company is the unrelenting dilution that has been occurring. Alex Karp addressed this on the conference call:Thank you. And I really appreciate you, investors. Thanks for investing and the faith you have in us. Okay. So there's like the simple version, which I think it's like - so there's really - there's stock-based comp and there's dilution. Dilution thing, that's a red herring. We're not issuing a lot of new shares, I think it's like in the $9 million range. And so it would be a little coy of me to say that's like no issue, move on.The thing to understand about Palantir and then I want to just take this like, it's actually not the result of the DPO, it's the result of the fact that we were completely focused on building product. We had no earthly idea we were going to DPO like right before we did it. And so most companies are quite frankly built so that the - when analysts look at it, the primary customer of most software companies is not the client, it's the software analyst.So it's like we, obviously, our primary clients are our clients. which doesn't mean - and then now we're thinking about how do we expose the data in a way that people on the outside like you and professional analysts and others can look at the data and get a better sense of what's tracking, what's not tracking. But the primary source of a lot of these like questions really comes down to look, we built the company to support the U.S. warfighter primarily and then do - take dual, use it for the glory of humanity, particular humanity in the West. That was our idea. And because our primary client was not what someone had a hedge fund would think, we didn't actually think of these things from inception. And so now there's a process of normalization.You're just going to see that in going forward on these calls just like how do you normalize, how do you provide data that people are going to look at, how do you provide data that people can understand that they're used to seeing, while simultaneously staying true to what our mission is. It's like our primary clients are the people we're serving. We're in full align with them. And that's why we survive even with the nascent sales force. You can get things to double, which is in sync.So then you get to stock-based comp, which is like, okay, so - and there's 2 parts of it. Of course, IRI people kind of don't want me to do any kind of forward-looking math, but if you're smart enough to invest in talent, you're smart enough to figure out. There's essentially - there's the - how are we comping people, and there will be a normalization that will get us into a range where you would see in a software company within the next 18 months, latest 2 years. But there's essentially - and that's going to take a little time. It is going to happen, because it's also very much linked to another question, which is how do you actually run the company so it's profitable someday on a GAAP basis, not stripping out comp. And that was also within eyesight.And those are our goals for Palantir because same reason we have no debt. The same reason we have $2.3 billion on our balance sheet. This is a company built for bad times. Bad times means strong finances internally. And that means at some point, you have to be GAAP profitable. You can't be GAAP profitable if you're diluting people or - correctly your stock based comp is totally - is not in conformity with other companies.So you're seeing a normalization. This will change. It will change in the relatively near future. It will be linked to other things that we believe are important for Palantir like having a company that thrives in bad times. And we are - bad times are very good for Palantir because we build products that are robust, that are built for danger. And then the finances internally are actually built for bad times. And bad times means you have free cash flow, the free cash flow turns into GAAP profit.That means the stock-based comp has to be one that's aligned with our investors also because that's basically - it's part of a little bit longer philosophical narrative, but like if software is the only moat, then value and gross shares have to be re-evaluated in terms of their value, value only exists if you can actually get a tech node, call it, maybe something besides. And growth only exist if you build a company that is where the technology is strong enough, the business fundamentals are strong enough that the free cash flow actually turns into GAAP profitability, and that's linked to stock return. So this is a priority, both because you care, but also quite frankly, because it is the health of our company, which we care a lot about.\"As you can see, they acknowledge that this is an issue. We also like the mention of getting to GAAP profitability. However, we do encourage you to actually read the full transcript. The call was a bit interesting. There was not a lot of talk about financials and quite a bit of conjecture on the call. A lot of words, and not a lot of substance. This gives us a little bit more risk in addition to what was mentioned above.Take homeShares have been crushed. But the company operates with no debt and free cash flow. The dilution issue is a major annoyance for shareholders and is a risk factor for valuation. Despite falling to levels not seen since 2020, the stock remains expensive, but nowhere near where it was valued a year ago. With the growth the company is displaying and what appears to be a recognition of the need to get to profitability, we like scaling in here.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":638816244,"gmtCreate":1645171331102,"gmtModify":1645171331392,"author":{"id":"3586255748151463","authorId":"3586255748151463","name":"indietro_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caebb6c2a70cbd2db563a3808f3d7b22","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638816244","repostId":1195946210,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7252227,"gmtCreate":1645171340272,"gmtModify":1645171340304,"authorId":3586255748151463,"author":{"id":3586255748151463,"authorId":3586255748151463,"name":"indietro_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caebb6c2a70cbd2db563a3808f3d7b22","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":638816244,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"O","text":"O","html":"O"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":638832925,"gmtCreate":1645168939197,"gmtModify":1645168939537,"author":{"id":"3570549774646276","authorId":"3570549774646276","name":"Andr3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41ca7aea5e2b5f410896f8cdc5a940c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"L","listText":"L","text":"L","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638832925","repostId":1195946210,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7252134,"gmtCreate":1645168943369,"gmtModify":1645168943401,"authorId":3570549774646276,"author":{"id":3570549774646276,"authorId":3570549774646276,"name":"Andr3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c41ca7aea5e2b5f410896f8cdc5a940c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":638832925,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"c","text":"c","html":"c"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":638897723,"gmtCreate":1645166664769,"gmtModify":1645166871817,"author":{"id":"3583897064119156","authorId":"3583897064119156","name":"Valeriechan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90dcd0f544e6b3d9d7fbe65dbe16a0d3","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"f","listText":"f","text":"f","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638897723","repostId":1195946210,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7252080,"gmtCreate":1645166675718,"gmtModify":1645166675746,"authorId":3583897064119156,"author":{"id":3583897064119156,"authorId":3583897064119156,"name":"Valeriechan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90dcd0f544e6b3d9d7fbe65dbe16a0d3","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":638897723,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"x","text":"x","html":"x"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":638807354,"gmtCreate":1645162758903,"gmtModify":1645167623289,"author":{"id":"3575499385722971","authorId":"3575499385722971","name":"bobbylim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9753dcafa04623c0e98c0bcaa291ae","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Btd?","listText":"Btd?","text":"Btd?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638807354","repostId":1195946210,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":13,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1195946210"}