Palantir: Lord Of Growth, ARK Invest, And Becoming Lord Of The Market

seekingalpha2021-08-18

Summary Palantir increased its full-year 2021 adjusted free cash flow outlook by 100% and is now projecting $300+ million while maintaining its 30%+ annual revenue growth through 2025. Palantir added...

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精彩评论

Deonc
2021-08-18
Deonc
looking forward Q3. please like and comment
breAkdaWn
2021-08-18
breAkdaWn
Einstein in RED!!
Bloom88
2021-08-18
Bloom88
😀
- Waeisiong:
  ok
Bobopo
2021-08-18
Bobopo
Yes
Jeremyfoo
2021-08-18
Jeremyfoo
OLong term hold
AlphBeta
2021-08-18
AlphBeta
👍

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It's been a tug of war, and commentators have made statements such as \"I think it's too much of a black box to get a real read on the business.\"PLTR is coming out of earnings season as the lord of the earnings as revenue increased by 49% YoY, and PLTR raises its 2021 full-year outlook.ARK Invest took the opportunity to add 5.2 million shares on Thursday after earnings were announced through six individual purchases throughout the day. I continuously become more bullish on PLTR after each earnings report, and Q2 2021 didn't disappoint.\nOver the last decade, software companies have experienced an extraordinary bull market as the evolution of technology transformed the business landscape. Regardless of the sector, evolution never stops, and in 2021, technology has become the backbone of enterprise. I wish the bears would get past the fact that PLTR can't discuss part of its business as it's a matter of national security. Being a top vendor with the United States government is positive, and all that matters are the numbers being reported. As investors, we don't need the details of what PLTR is doing with the military. The United States Government and PLTR both report what entities are doing business with PLTR, the contract duration, and the monetary value of the contract. The second jab bears would make against PLTR was the lack of commercial contracts. After the first six months of 2021, PLTR has put this to bed as its commercial customer count grew by 20% QoQ while commercial revenue increased 28% YoY. PLTR is becoming one of the most important software companies of the decade, and we have only begun to scratch the surface.\n(Source: Palantir)\nPalantir continues to strengthen its government business\nAs an American, I am proud to be a shareholder of PLTR. We need more companies aligned with providing the best solutions possible to our government agencies. PLTR continues to strengthen its relationship with the most powerful government globally, which is mutually beneficial. The United States Government gets the most sophisticated software applications while PLTR generates millions in additional revenue each quarter. Going back to PLTR's previous quarterly presentations, I mapped out the government business sector's growth. I would ask why the stigma of being a \"black box\" diminishes PLTR as the numbers are reported, and that's what matters?\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)\nOver the past seven quarters, PLTR has increased its quarterly revenue from its government contracts by 139.18% ($135 million). PLTR's average quarterly growth rate has been 13.24% as they have added an average of $19.29 million in government contract value to its revenue since Q3 2019. When looking at the trailing twelve months (TTM) quarterly, PLTR has increased its TTM government revenue by $335 million (73.14%) over the past year. PLTR's TTM revenue at the end of Q2 2021 has grown to $793 million from $458 million in Q2 2020. Over the past four quarters, PLTR's government revenue TTM has grown by an average of $83.75 million with an average growth rate of 18.29% QoQ.\nIt's perplexing how individuals neglect to give PLTR's government business the credit it deserves. InQ2 2021, PLTR signed new deals with the U.S. Army, Air Force, and Coast Guard, including a two-year $100 million deal with SOCOM. PLTR also signed new contracts with HHS and the CDC. This included expanding PLTR's efforts to help the U.S. manage vaccine production, distribution, and administration. Using the Federal Procurement Data System as a source of reference, PLTR had inked 17 government contracts that had been uploaded. Reading through the agencies PLTR supports, including the U.S. Coast Guard, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Internal Revenue Service, the Federal Aviation Administration, and the Food and Drug Administration, PLTR continues to solidify itself as one of the premier vendors to good old Uncle Sam.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Federal Procurement Data System)\nPalantir's commercial business is becoming larger\nOne of the major complaints and criticisms from the bears has been the lack of commercial business PLTR generated. Many had subscribed to the logic that building the rapport on the commercial side would be challenging because PLTR was a black box, and nobody knew what they did. Many had indicated that this wouldn't be a worthwhile investment unless PLTR could prove that their software could be utilized and implemented on the commercial side. It turns out that PLTR continues to blow holes directly through this theory as the commercial side continues to grow.\n(Source: Palantir)\nAt the end of Q2 2021, PLTR had increased their commercial revenue quarterly by $50 million (53.2%) over the past seven quarters. PLTR has experienced QoQ growth at an average rate of $7.14 million or 7.6%. At the end of Q2 2020, PLTR had generated $443 million in revenue from its commercial business contracts for the TTM. Over the past year, this had increased by $93 million or 21%, as commercial accounted for $536 million of PLTR's revenue in the TTM. Over the past four quarters, PLTR's commercial TTM revenue has increased at an average of $23.25 million or 4.91% QoQ.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)\nPalantir continues to be a growth machine from contracts down to its customers\nBusiness is flourishing at PLTR as its Q2 and first half 2021 revenue both increased by 49% YoY. In Q2 2021, PLTR's overall revenue increased from $252 million ($112 million commercial, $140 million government) to $376 million ($144 million commercial, $232 million government). For the first half of 2021, PLTR has generated $717 million in revenue compared to $481 million for the same period in 2020, increasing $236 million. Over the past seven quarters, PLTR's total revenue has increased at an average rate of $26.43 million or 10.32% QoQ.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)\nEvery important metric is increasing for PLTR, and the bears should pay attention to these metrics. In Q2, PLTR added 20 new customers as their total commercial customer count increased 13% QoQ to 169. Since the close of 2020, in the first half of 2021, PLTR has increased its commercial customers by 21.58%. PLTR closed Q2 with $3.4 billion in total remaining deal value, which was an increase of 63% YoY, growing from $2.1 billion at the end of Q2 2020. PLTR's average revenue generated per customer has increased 19% from $6.6 million to $7.9 million for the TTM at the end of Q2 2021, compared to Q2 2020. What's more impressive is the growth throughout PLTR's largest customers. PLTR's average revenue per top 20 customers has increased by 36%, from $29 million to $39 million YoY for the TTM.\nMany companies that are considered growth companies have impressive revenue gains, but what separates PLTR from others is their increasing margins and adjusted free cash flow. As PLTR gains customers and signed contracts, their margins have been improving, which has led to positive free cash flow. PLTR's adjusted gross margin is 82%, and its contribution margin is 58%. In Q2 2021, PLTR produced $117 million in adjusted operating income, which increased $88 million (303.45%) YoY. PLTR's adjusted operating margin came in at 31% compared to their 23% guidance level. In the first half of 2020, PLTR reported -$232 million of adjusted free cash flow. Over the past year, PLTR has made tremendous progress as their adjusted free cash flow in the first half of 2021 was $201 million, which represented a margin of 28%.\nPLTR is growing its commercial customers, gaining government contracts, increasing its revenue quarterly, and is free cash flow positive. PLTR raised its 2021 full-year guidance and confirmed the theory by many PLTR bulls that their guidance was conservative. PLTR increased its adjusted free cash flow guidance by 100% as it increased from $150 million to $300 million for 2021. PLTR is still projecting a 30% revenue growth rate for 2021 and on an annual basis through 2025. PLTR has set the bar for Q3 2021 at $385 million for total revenue, which would be a QoQ increase of $9 million (2.4%) and a YoY increase of $95 million (32.76%).\n(Source: Palantir)\nPalantir is most likely understating Q3 2021 revenue estimates\nPLTR guided for $385 million revenue in Q3 2021. I will make an educated prediction and say this is low, and the actual number will be closer to $406 million. Going back to Q3 2019, PLTR has grown its commercial customer quarterly revenue at an average rate of 7.14% QoQ. PLTR's government revenue has increased at an average rate of 13.34% QoQ since Q3 2019. Putting these growth rates to the side for a moment, PLTR has inked five new contracts in Q3 2021 according to the Federal Procurement Data System for a total contract value of $102.82 million, of which $14.78 million are current action obligations. This indicates that growth will be similar to previous quarters on the government side as this is on pace with Q2 2021.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Federal Procurement Data System)\nAssuming that PLTR's growth rates follow its previous trend and I use a conservative estimate of 5% on the commercial side and 10% on the government side, PLTR would generate $151.20 million in revenue from the commercial business and $255.20 million from the government business for a total of $406.40 million in total Q3 revenue. Using the same methodology, PLTR would generate $439.48 million in Q4 2021 total revenue placing their total annual revenue for 2021 at $1.562.88 billion. If this works out, PLTR's prediction of 30% plus revenue growth in 2021 would be an understatement as its revenue would grow by $469.88 million YoY or 42.99%. I would also assume that the increased guidance for the adjusted free cash flow of $300+ million would be on the low end.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)\nARK Invest loaded the boat and purchased 5.2 million shares after Thursday's earnings were released\nI know that some readers dislike when I discuss the trades over at ARK Invest regarding PLTR, so I will apologize in advance. I apologize to anyone who I offend. Personally, I love when ARK Invest buys shares because Cathie Wood and her team have tremendous foresight when spotting future trends. The email notification I received from ARK Invest Thursday trades made my jaw drop. PLTR was added across the board to theirsix active ETFswith the following allocations:\n\nARK Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKK)2.29 million shares\nARK Genomic Revolution Multi-Sector ETF(BATS:ARKG)1.72 million shares\nARK Next Generation Internet ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKW)587,000 shares\nARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF(BATS:ARKQ)559,000 shares\nARK Fintech Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKF)370,000 shares\nARK Space Exploration ETF(BATS:ARKX)61,000 shares\n\n(Source: ARK Invest)\nPLTR is now the 15th largest holding in ARKK, 40th in ARKQ, 17th in ARKQ, 45th in ARKG, 44th in ARKF, and 38th in ARKX. Collectively, ARK Invest holds 32,080,168 shares across these funds, which is a market value of $798.8 million. I view this as very bullish, and I am happy to add to my position along with ARK Invest.\nConclusion\nI continuously increase how bullish I am on PLTR. I have purchased shares under $10, above $28, and I plan on continuing to purchase shares in the future. I honestly believe PLTR is going to become one of the most important software companies of the decade. I want to say that they will become the most important software company, but it's hard to say that considering Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT). In Q2 2021, revenue grew 49% YoY, total contract value booked increased 175% YoY, Q2 commercial customer count increased 61% in the first half of 2021, and 62 deals were closed that were at least $1 million in revenue while 30 were at least $5 million, and 21 were at least $10 million. PLTR raised its 2021 guidance for adjusted free cash flow by 100%, and I think they're staying conservative. PLTR continues to create the software of tomorrow, and I believe their meta-constellation project could become their most important project to date. PLTR isn't a trade, it's a long-term investment, and if you have time on your side, I believe this will become a multi-bagger.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":833776955,"gmtCreate":1629268885477,"gmtModify":1633686081901,"author":{"id":"3569316529855154","authorId":"3569316529855154","name":"Deonc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9aa45dd2eb58357f6477dcfb99d1415","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569316529855154","idStr":"3569316529855154"},"htmlText":"looking forward Q3. please like and comment","listText":"looking forward Q3. please like and comment","text":"looking forward Q3. please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833776955","repostId":1195810252,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":833764774,"gmtCreate":1629264956298,"gmtModify":1629264956298,"author":{"id":"3569809505691000","authorId":"3569809505691000","name":"breAkdaWn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569809505691000","idStr":"3569809505691000"},"htmlText":"Einstein in RED!!","listText":"Einstein in RED!!","text":"Einstein in RED!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833764774","repostId":1195810252,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":833761361,"gmtCreate":1629264323753,"gmtModify":1633686104378,"author":{"id":"3579815534956625","authorId":"3579815534956625","name":"Bloom88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/033cde0577d9fb0c09cb6a7956e22236","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3579815534956625","idStr":"3579815534956625"},"htmlText":"😀","listText":"😀","text":"😀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833761361","repostId":1195810252,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5565176,"gmtCreate":1629267507223,"gmtModify":1635148749219,"authorId":3581590310925129,"author":{"id":3581590310925129,"idStr":"3581590310925129","authorId":3581590310925129,"name":"Waeisiong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/058e1e1ecb51258cff6ed86fb0c17292","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":833761361,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":833781010,"gmtCreate":1629263460330,"gmtModify":1633686112095,"author":{"id":"4089460854604900","authorId":"4089460854604900","name":"Bobopo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c06c9ece96f931b40afb10a5e4bc89c4","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4089460854604900","idStr":"4089460854604900"},"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833781010","repostId":1195810252,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":833718450,"gmtCreate":1629262488670,"gmtModify":1633686118658,"author":{"id":"3583135352686911","authorId":"3583135352686911","name":"Jeremyfoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3583135352686911","idStr":"3583135352686911"},"htmlText":"OLong term hold","listText":"OLong term hold","text":"OLong term 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