Morgan Stanley Doubles Down On Doom: Calls For "Fire And Ice" Correction

zerohedge2021-10-08

Three weeks ago, when the markets were gripped by a brief but sharp selloff over fears of Evergrande default contagtion (which certainly remains on the table), Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilsontook the ...

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精彩评论

DragonKC
2021-10-09
DragonKC
Nobody or institutions can predict which directions the market heading. Morgan Stanley just trying it's luck to get it desperately accurate. Flip or flop . What a joke. Haha.
Gunners80
2021-10-09
Gunners80
Really??
- HUATkueh:
  Ok
Gunners80
2021-10-09
Gunners80
Fud
- stardice:
  Liked and commented
Jenjorjack
2021-10-09
Jenjorjack
A destructive 20% of Fire and Ice in the mid cycle. I think could be more. Think about how to antifragile your holdings
AnthonyC
2021-10-09
AnthonyC
Like please
- WBT13:
  done
Hannaqing
2021-10-09
Hannaqing
like ple
- AnthonyC:
  Done
- TJW1991:
  k

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However, the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction. As a result, \n we continue to recommend a barbell of more defensively oriented quality (Healthcare and Staples) to protect from the \"ice\" scenario while keeping a leg in Financials to participate in the \"fire\" outcome as higher rates materialize.\n\nAnd just so it was clear that Wilson stubbornly refused to join the bullish bandwagon, he said that \"with our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&P 500.\"\nFast forward to today when with stocks once again barreling higher, Wilson doubled down on his bearish view and in the latest Morgan Stanley strategy data pack, writes that \"we are now calling for Fire AND Ice.\"Here, he again recaps the two possible mid-cycle correction outcomes he had been envisioning:\n\nFire:tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming\nIce:growth disappointment particularly on the earnings side\n\nAnd so, in a reversal from what he said last month, Wilson now thinks\"it’s increasingly likely these scenarios happen together and we get a >10% correction.The Fed will likely announce its taper plans at its next FOMC meeting just as we expect a disappointment in earnings to materialize.\"\nAnd since much digital ink has been spilled discussing the impact of the coming taper, we will focus on his second warning, namely the coming trouble for corporate earnings, which echoes what we said more than a month ago...\n\n... and which Wilson distills simply as \"Earnings Trouble Ahead.\"\nHere, the strategist points to the large number of companies flagging serious supply chain issues in off-cycle earnings reports over the past month and notes that \"both forward earnings estimates and price de-rated after many of these reports.\"\n\nJumping to the punchline, Wilson thinks this will be a pervasive dynamic during 3Q reporting season and it will \"trigger downside in earnings revisions at the index level - a headwind for price.\"\n\nFinally, looking beyond 3Q, he sees the earnings risk coming more from(1) the inability of companies to pass on pricing (2) margin risk related more to higher wages and (3) a reversion (lower) in goods consumption.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":821221878,"gmtCreate":1633749419522,"gmtModify":1633749420639,"author":{"id":"3577178099298017","authorId":"3577178099298017","name":"DragonKC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f90c63c67a4e5f91e9dc0159f5b853ab","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577178099298017","authorIdStr":"3577178099298017"},"htmlText":"Nobody or institutions can predict which directions the market heading. Morgan Stanley just trying it's luck to get it desperately accurate. &nbsp;Flip or flop . What a joke. Haha.&nbsp;","listText":"Nobody or institutions can predict which directions the market heading. Morgan Stanley just trying it's luck to get it desperately accurate. &nbsp;Flip or flop . What a joke. Haha.&nbsp;","text":"Nobody or institutions can predict which directions the market heading. Morgan Stanley just trying it's luck to get it desperately accurate. Flip or flop . What a joke. Haha.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821221878","repostId":1195699682,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821672635,"gmtCreate":1633744174509,"gmtModify":1633744174896,"author":{"id":"3568161254291931","authorId":"3568161254291931","name":"Gunners80","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b631d2d208e0248c96ed1117c4db37e","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568161254291931","authorIdStr":"3568161254291931"},"htmlText":"Really??","listText":"Really??","text":"Really??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821672635","repostId":1195699682,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6139752,"gmtCreate":1633747315518,"gmtModify":1634718058875,"authorId":3572312712757258,"author":{"id":3572312712757258,"idStr":"3572312712757258","authorId":3572312712757258,"name":"HUATkueh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/936c7c3c568dece3e2a6ae1a4510ab73","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821672635,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821672045,"gmtCreate":1633744144938,"gmtModify":1633745282871,"author":{"id":"3568161254291931","authorId":"3568161254291931","name":"Gunners80","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b631d2d208e0248c96ed1117c4db37e","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568161254291931","authorIdStr":"3568161254291931"},"htmlText":"Fud","listText":"Fud","text":"Fud","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821672045","repostId":1195699682,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6139872,"gmtCreate":1633747813655,"gmtModify":1634718048784,"authorId":3569374298664989,"author":{"id":3569374298664989,"idStr":"3569374298664989","authorId":3569374298664989,"name":"stardice","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821672045,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Liked and commented","text":"Liked and commented","html":"Liked and commented"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821640087,"gmtCreate":1633743038053,"gmtModify":1633743039298,"author":{"id":"3554873215379647","authorId":"3554873215379647","name":"Jenjorjack","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9d4687aa5519f0d2fb1b18f916be861","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3554873215379647","authorIdStr":"3554873215379647"},"htmlText":"A destructive 20% of Fire and Ice in the mid cycle. I think could be more. Think about how to antifragile your holdings","listText":"A destructive 20% of Fire and Ice in the mid cycle. I think could be more. Think about how to antifragile your holdings","text":"A destructive 20% of Fire and Ice in the mid cycle. I think could be more. Think about how to antifragile your holdings","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821640087","repostId":1195699682,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821635909,"gmtCreate":1633738997269,"gmtModify":1633738997688,"author":{"id":"3571137160288122","authorId":"3571137160288122","name":"AnthonyC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3571137160288122","authorIdStr":"3571137160288122"},"htmlText":"Like please&nbsp;","listText":"Like please&nbsp;","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821635909","repostId":1195699682,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6137464,"gmtCreate":1633739007160,"gmtModify":1634718260217,"authorId":3573351657200487,"author":{"id":3573351657200487,"idStr":"3573351657200487","authorId":3573351657200487,"name":"WBT13","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c32eff74d0ce173f7e10df861c0ee416","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821635909,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>done</u>","text":"<u>done</u>","html":"<u>done</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821608693,"gmtCreate":1633737060871,"gmtModify":1633737061123,"author":{"id":"3586505171134311","authorId":"3586505171134311","name":"Hannaqing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3f6e295b445101f45f6feb5b45e37a8","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586505171134311","authorIdStr":"3586505171134311"},"htmlText":"like ple","listText":"like ple","text":"like ple","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821608693","repostId":1195699682,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6137427,"gmtCreate":1633738866636,"gmtModify":1634718263822,"authorId":3571137160288122,"author":{"id":3571137160288122,"idStr":"3571137160288122","authorId":3571137160288122,"name":"AnthonyC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821608693,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done","text":"Done","html":"Done"},{"id":6137543,"gmtCreate":1633739367951,"gmtModify":1634718252888,"authorId":3578904826776116,"author":{"id":3578904826776116,"idStr":"3578904826776116","authorId":3578904826776116,"name":"TJW1991","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d13fbb3feb6459408472fb351d6fe0","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821608693,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"k","text":"k","html":"k"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":315,"commentSize":43,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1195699682"}