Palantir: Shareholder Unfriendly Company With Limited Upside

Seeking Alpha2021-08-25

Summary Palantir continues to widen its net loss despite improving its top-line performance. The excessive stock-based compensation program continues to eat all the profits and overshadows any growth...

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精彩评论

ZEROHERO
2021-08-26
ZEROHERO
Many shorters indeed
jhhh
2021-08-26
jhhh
What are yoir convections for this company
htht
2021-08-26
htht
The author has such a myopic view. If you buy Palantir, you are in it for the long game; the management team is looking ten steps ahead. Palantir is not randomly investing its profits. They are investing their earnings back into R&D and companies in industries they want to expand into. The industry experts in these companies feed valuable information/data to Palantir, and in return, Palantir helps them make meaningful decisions. It's a win-win for both. When these companies succeed, it would have proven that Palantir's software works, and Palantir would have a turnkey solution to sell to others within that industry.
- Huathk:
  Gd
Yolotrader69
2021-08-25
Yolotrader69
Just hodl
WwwQY
2021-08-25
WwwQY
Basic
- NoobZai:
  了
Kimfatt
2021-08-25
Kimfatt
Noo
- xiaochan:
  Okok

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In addition, the massive dilution since the beginning of the year and the constant selling pressure from the company's insiders are preventing Palantir's shares from appreciating as well. Also, the fact that Palantir has underperformed against the S&P 500 index in recent months and its stock hasn't moved much since March proves our point that the company is not an attractive investment at this stage, as there's every reason to believe that not a lot of shareholder value will be created anytime soon. For that reason, we continue to believe that it's better to invest in other, more attractive opportunities on the market and avoid Palantir.\nThere's Nothing Attractive About This Stock\nA lot has been said about Palantir's business and its advantages against other competitors in recent articles on the company, so we won't be discussing it in this article. 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While its revenue has increased by 10.1% Q/Q to $375.64 million and its gross profit has increased by 6.6% Q/Q to $284.7 million, its operating loss has increased at a greater rate of 28.2% Q/Q to -$146.1 million, while its net loss has widened by 12.2% Q/Q to -$138.6 million. The reason for such a weak performance is the excessive stock-based compensation program, which will prevent the company from reporting a profit, as already over $400 million were spent on the SBC program in the first six months of the current fiscal year. In Q2 alone, Palantir increased its stock-based compensation expenses by 82% Y/Y to $232.7 million, and further expenses in Q3 and Q4 will overshadow any growth of revenues or FCF this year.\nSource: Palantir\nAnother problem with the excessive SBC program is that it constantly dilutes Palantir's shareholders. The company already has 1.89 billion shares outstanding, up from1.8 billion shares a month ago and up from 1.52 billion shares at the end of 2020. At the current dilution rate, investors should expect the company to have over 2 billion shares by the end of this year. This will not only diminish the stock value of current holders but will also make it harder for shares to appreciate higher due to the greater count. If in 2019 and 2020 Palantir's revenue per share stood at $1.29 per share and $1.12 per share, respectively, in the last trailing twelve months revenue per share has already declined to only $0.83 per share and is likely going to depreciate further in the following quarters. On top of that, considering that Palantir still has 417,674 options outstanding at the end of Q2 at the average exercise price of $6.90 per share, the risk of further dilution will remain high, especially since once all of those options are exercised, they will dilute all the investors by over 20%.\nSource: Palantir\nOn top of all of this, the company's insiders and its CEO Alex Karp in particular continue to add additional selling pressure, which prevents shares from rising higher as well. In Q2 alone the company's insiders sold a record $197 million worth of Palantir's shares, while in the first half of Q3 they already sold $93 million worth of the company's shares, nearly the same amount that they sold in Q1. As more shares are being dumped into the market, it becomes harder and harder for the stock to rise. Considering that it's unlikely that insiders stop selling their shares, as they still own over 10% of outstanding shares and are increasing their total number of shares by exercising options every quarter, average shareholders shouldn't expect a rapid appreciation of Palantir's stock in the foreseeable future.\nAnother downside of Palantir is that, even at the current price, it's not a cheap stock at all; with a market cap of $47 billion, it trades at 30 times its sales. As a result, an even greater top-line growth rate is required for the company to reach its current valuation, and that's unlikely to happen anytime soon. Currently, the street expects Palantir to generate only $1.5 billion in revenues in FY21, and by 2025 it's unlikely that the company will be able to generate annual revenue of over $3.5 billion. Considering that at this stage, Palantir has a backlog of contracts worth only $3.4 billion, which are extended over the next few years, it's safe to say that its stock is significantly overvalued at the current levels. We don't see how the company will grow into its current market value in the next few years, and since its shares currently trade close to the consensus price of $24.16 per share, it's safe to assume that Palantir has limited upside at the current levels.\nTakeaway\nBullish investors in the comment section of our articles on Palantir often keep repeating that Amazon (AMZN) was also unprofitable for more than two decades, so the fact that Palantir is being unprofitable as well is not that big a deal at this stage. However, Amazon was reinvesting most of the available resources back into its business to aggressively drive growth, which in the end was justifiable, as the company is now making money every quarter and is the biggest eCommerce company in the world. The same is not the case for Palantir, where insiders are constantly issuing new shares and then dumping them into the market, which constantly dilutes the existing shareholders, widens the overall net loss, and doesn't benefit the business. On top of that, Palantir is now investing in cryptocurrencies, SPACs, and gold bars, instead of its own business, which is something that Amazon wasn't doing and is not doing today. That's why comparing Palantir to Amazon doesn't make any sense.\nConsidering this, we believe that it's unlikely that Palantir's stock will be able to appreciate significantly higher anytime soon, as the increased selling pressure, constant dilution, and overvaluation are the main reasons why its upside will remain limited at the current price. Therefore, no position.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":810991011,"gmtCreate":1629937863733,"gmtModify":1633681349710,"author":{"id":"3566532164444643","authorId":"3566532164444643","name":"ZEROHERO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62813b6df1c4722e559d112fadd5486a","vip":2,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Many shorters indeed","listText":"Many shorters indeed","text":"Many shorters indeed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810991011","repostId":1195506103,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":837702263,"gmtCreate":1629912022552,"gmtModify":1631890489574,"author":{"id":"3564727225062351","authorId":"3564727225062351","name":"jhhh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4f3f7b72783725da207a373581e5430","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"What are yoir convections for this company","listText":"What are yoir convections for this company","text":"What are yoir convections for this company","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837702263","repostId":1195506103,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":837701091,"gmtCreate":1629911248113,"gmtModify":1633681522387,"author":{"id":"3574990061555881","authorId":"3574990061555881","name":"htht","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3db2a624bd21108fb0def4f8b401d45a","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"The author has such a myopic view. If you buy&nbsp;Palantir, you are&nbsp;in it for the long game; the management team is looking ten steps ahead. Palantir is not randomly investing its profits. They are&nbsp;investing their earnings back&nbsp;into R&amp;D and companies in industries they want to expand into. The industry experts in these companies feed valuable information/data to&nbsp;Palantir, and in return, Palantir helps them&nbsp;make meaningful decisions. It's a win-win for both. When these&nbsp;companies succeed, it would have proven that Palantir's software works,&nbsp;and Palantir would have a turnkey solution to sell to others within that industry.","listText":"The author has such a myopic view. If you buy&nbsp;Palantir, you are&nbsp;in it for the long game; the management team is looking ten steps ahead. Palantir is not randomly investing its profits. They are&nbsp;investing their earnings back&nbsp;into R&amp;D and companies in industries they want to expand into. The industry experts in these companies feed valuable information/data to&nbsp;Palantir, and in return, Palantir helps them&nbsp;make meaningful decisions. It's a win-win for both. When these&nbsp;companies succeed, it would have proven that Palantir's software works,&nbsp;and Palantir would have a turnkey solution to sell to others within that industry.","text":"The author has such a myopic view. If you buy Palantir, you are in it for the long game; the management team is looking ten steps ahead. Palantir is not randomly investing its profits. They are investing their earnings back into R&D and companies in industries they want to expand into. The industry experts in these companies feed valuable information/data to Palantir, and in return, Palantir helps them make meaningful decisions. It's a win-win for both. When these companies succeed, it would have proven that Palantir's software works, and Palantir would have a turnkey solution to sell to others within that industry.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837701091","repostId":1195506103,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5675897,"gmtCreate":1630140824355,"gmtModify":1635137165915,"authorId":3573472992263411,"author":{"id":3573472992263411,"authorId":3573472992263411,"name":"Huathk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43c7168c646d9ea6805194ed0003f1cc","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":837701091,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Gd","text":"Gd","html":"Gd"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":837485079,"gmtCreate":1629905489391,"gmtModify":1631883982448,"author":{"id":"4087194371069210","authorId":"4087194371069210","name":"Yolotrader69","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Just hodl","listText":"Just hodl","text":"Just hodl","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837485079","repostId":1195506103,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":837494694,"gmtCreate":1629903714518,"gmtModify":1631893600285,"author":{"id":"3575626976695048","authorId":"3575626976695048","name":"WwwQY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f9c22c265d387847e42f1190cd93d36","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Basic","listText":"Basic","text":"Basic","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837494694","repostId":1195506103,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5647094,"gmtCreate":1629904239267,"gmtModify":1635142685434,"authorId":3586381108588721,"author":{"id":3586381108588721,"authorId":3586381108588721,"name":"NoobZai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11efd284456355c2f5498832e54042ff","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":837494694,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"了","text":"了","html":"了"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":837490317,"gmtCreate":1629903271339,"gmtModify":1631890134516,"author":{"id":"3569323320302810","authorId":"3569323320302810","name":"Kimfatt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c08b995a955b3c83a657bdc9c15fbe","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Noo","listText":"Noo","text":"Noo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837490317","repostId":1195506103,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5647915,"gmtCreate":1629913029533,"gmtModify":1631890134518,"authorId":3570343633899015,"author":{"id":3570343633899015,"authorId":3570343633899015,"name":"xiaochan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":837490317,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Okok","text":"Okok","html":"Okok"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":54,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.1","shortVersion":"4.25.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1195506103"}