通胀顽固！美国8月CPI同比反弹至3.7%，核心CPI环比6个月来首次加速上涨

华尔街见闻2023-09-13

油价飙升，美国8月通胀再加速，整体CPI同比增速连续第二个月反弹，并超预期的3.6%；核心CPI环比增速较上月的0.2%升至0.3%。通胀难降或使美联储需要在更长时间内保持高利率。在油价大幅反弹之际，美国8月整体CPI同比增速连续第二个月反弹，并创下14个月来最大的环比涨幅，核心CPI同比增速继续放缓，但环比涨幅6个月来首次加速，增速高于预期，凸显了物价压力。9月13日周三，美国劳工统计局公布的...

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来自空中的客人
2023-09-14
来自空中的客人
只能说明人民币继续贬值
投资而不投机
2023-09-13
投资而不投机
加息100点
跟着队长一起走
2023-09-13
跟着队长一起走
可劲造就对了
yesh13
2023-09-13
yesh13
风暴来了

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In August, the CPI of the United States rebounded to 3.7% year-on-year, and the core CPI accelerated for the first time in six months","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/066fd0d4580181c1f96fd179e5ba0fa1","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"油价飙升，美国8月通胀再加速，整体CPI同比增速连续第二个月反弹，并超预期的3.6%；核心CPI环比增速较上月的0.2%升至0.3%。通胀难降或使美联储需要在更长时间内保持高利率。在油价大幅反弹之际，美国8月整体CPI同比增速连续第二个月反弹，并创下14个月来最大的环比涨幅，核心CPI同比增速继续放缓，但环比涨幅6个月来首次加速，增速高于预期，凸显了物价压力。9月13日周三，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国8月CPI同比涨幅从7月的3.2%反弹至3.7%，为连续第二个月同比增速反弹，超过预期的3.6%。8月CPI环比增速也由7月的0.2%加快至0.6%，符合预期，为14个月来最大的环比涨幅。其中，汽油价格环比上涨10.5%，成了重要推手。美联储更为关注的剔除能源食品后的核心CPI，同比增速从4.7%回落至4.3%，符合预期，为近两年来的最小涨幅。但核心CPI环比涨幅较上月的0.2%小幅至0.3%，超预期的0.2%。分析师普遍认为，核心CPI降温可能会在一定程度上减轻美联储的压力，但油价的大幅波动，很可能使欧美各国需要在更长时间内保持高利率，今年四季度美联储依然存在加息的可能性。与此同时，核心CPI的重新加速，可能会迫使美联储进一步推高利率，并有可能致使经济低迷。需要注意的是，美联储密切关注的通胀指标——剔除了住房后的核心服务业通胀环比上涨0.53%，高于7月的0.2%，为2022年9月以来的最高水平，同比仍保持在 4% 以上。美国CPI数据公布后，美元指数短线拉升后急速下挫约30点。美股期货短线走低后迅速收复失地，纳斯达克100指数期货现维持在平盘附近。美现货黄金短线走低后又拉升约5美元，现报1910.48美元/盎司。能源成本上涨成了CPI的最强推动力环比来看，能源成本成了8月美国CPI增长的最大贡献项，占CPI涨幅的一半以上，住房指数的持续上升也推动了8月核心CPI的反弹：8月能源价格环比上涨5.6%，7月仅环比上涨0.1%，所有主要能源成分指数均上涨。8月份食品价格环比上升0.2%，与7月持平，其中家庭食品价格上涨0.2%，外出食品价格上涨 0.3%核心CPI中，住房、汽车保险、航空机票、个人护理等有所上涨。二手车和卡车、医疗服务、娱乐和通讯价格8月有所下降：8月住房指数继前2个月均环比上涨0.4%后，本月环比上涨0.3%。8月租金价格上涨0.5%，业主等效租金环比上涨0.4%。汽车保险指数较7月环比增长2.0%后，在8月加速上涨至2.4%。8月医疗保健指数上涨0.2%，上月下降0.2%。娱乐指数环比下降0.2%，通讯指数环比下降0.1%。二手汽车和卡车指数继7 月份下跌1.3% 后，8 月份下跌 1.2%。同比来看，住房价格同比增长了7.3%，占核心CPI总增长的70%以上。其他同比显著增长的项目，包括汽车保险（+19.1%）、娱乐（+3.5%）、个人护理（+5.8%）和新车（+2.9%）。但需要注意的是，住房通胀率正大幅下降，增长放缓的势头变得更加明显，在8月，交通运输首次击败住房，成为核心CPI的最大推动因素。分析师指出“交通消费价格的重新上涨将给股票和债券市场一定的冲击，因为它一直是过去几个月通胀下降的主要推动力。”油价飙升，美联储的紧缩还将继续？经历了长达半年的低迷油价后，因OPEC+减产等因素已导致原油供需关系持续趋紧，全球原油价格从7月开始大幅反弹，自7月以来，国际原油基准布伦特原油已从75美元涨至92.5美元，上涨了约23%，至去年11月来的高位。而作为维持全球经济运转的重要燃料，纽约港柴油价格已经飙升超30%。油价的大幅波动，很可能使美联储需要在更长时间内保持高利率。分析师认为，能源食品与普通消费者对于当前经济中生活成本的实际感知有很高的相关性，如果油价反弹导致通胀预期回升，那么美联储或将继续加息：上世纪70年代，美国消费者难以区分油价上涨是暂时的还是永久的，他们担心未来价格会持续上涨而降低消费，为弥补生活成本上升而要求加薪，从而导致工资增速居高不下，形成“工资—通胀”螺旋。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":true,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":219500398391320,"gmtCreate":1694626508091,"gmtModify":1694626516652,"author":{"id":"3517396403017571","authorId":"3517396403017571","name":"来自空中的客人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fc1a2e2b90e68ae0b4a38d02a22e424","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3517396403017571","authorIdStr":"3517396403017571"},"htmlText":"只能说明 人民币继续贬值","listText":"只能说明 人民币继续贬值","text":"只能说明 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