NIO: Hop On For 100% Upside Potential

Seeking Alpha2021-11-03

Summary NIO released disappointing October deliveries, despite strong demand. Though there are short-term headwinds, NIO's long-term growth prospects continue to be good. I estimate the stock could ...

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精彩评论

Captangy
2021-11-04
Captangy
Hodl nio!
Tanyl
2021-11-03
Tanyl
Must buy NIO
Tanyl
2021-11-03
Tanyl
NIO is a good share
Tygress
2021-11-03
Tygress
Pls rise!
Cheryi
2021-11-03
Cheryi
Like
ValuInvestor
2021-11-03
ValuInvestor
Certainly hope so, it’s been beaten down a lot

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(NIO) is one of the fastest Chinese EV companies, with ambitious plans to expand globally. However, recent production figures for October have been unimpressive, sending the stock back under $40/share. But this does not change the long-term prospects of the company. I believe NIO’s shares could easily double in the next 12 months based on my valuation.\nShort-term headwinds\nNIO Inc. just reported its deliveries for October,leaving investors anything but pleased. Overall, the company delivered 3,6677 vehicles, which was down 27.5% YoY. Though these headline numbers are disappointing, they are not the result of a slump in demand, as much as what I consider to be temporary headwinds. NIO cited “restructuring and manufacturing of upgrade lines” as the main reasons behind the decrease in deliveries. This does seem like a compelling argument, especially when we consider that new orders reached an all-time high in October.\nSo the real question would be, how much of an impact will these manufacturing upgrades have? Will we see them affect next month's numbers? And is there more that the company might not be telling us?\nIt is important to point out that, whatever happened to NIO in the last month, seems to be an isolated event. Rivals like Li Auto (LI) and XPeng Inc. (XPEV) delivered month-on-month increases.Though chip shortages and'' supply constraints” have surely had an impact on all these companies, NIO’s rivals seem to have fared better. Having said that, I do believe NIO will overcome these short-term headwinds, and still holds the most promise looking forward.\nLong-term tailwinds\nDespite the poor monthly results, the long-term prospects of NIO remain attractive, nothing has changed there. The issue of manufacturing has been widely discussed since NIO doesn’t have its production facilities yet. However, back in May,NIO renewed its agreement with Jianghuai Automobile Group Co (JAC). Through this agreement, NIO expects to double its production, up to 240,000 units per year from now to 2024.\nMore importantly though, NIO has even more ambitious plans in the future, since the company will be spearheading the construction of the Neo Park, an industrial cluster for EVs based in the city of Hefei.\n\n Neo Park in the capital of Anhui province will have production capacities for one million electric cars and 100 GWh of batteries per year on an area of 11.3 square kilometres, as well as research and development facilities, according to Chinese media reports on the start of construction. More than 50,000 jobs are planned, including more than 10,000 in research and development. The initial investment is 50 billion yuan (about 6.4 billion euros).\n\nSource:Electrive.com\nFor these reasons, I am not concerned when it comes to NIO’s long-term production capabilities.\nThe other significant tailwind for NIO is its impending international expansion. NIO is already doing very well in China, as new orders are still holding strong even in October. It is true though that NIO faces intense competition in this area, few of the up and coming Chinese EV companies have any current plans for international expansion, which NIO does.\nNIO launched its ES8 in Norway one month ago, on the 1st of October, and this might also be partly behind the recent slowdown in production. NIO has shifted its focus towards this region, as it seeks to get a foot into Europe’s largest EV market. NIO has also brought its “lifestyle brand” to Norway, opening up a NIO House in Oslo, and partnering up with two local artists, Anette Moi and Sandra Blikas, to launch its NIO Norway collection. The company plans to expand from Oslo and have 20 NIO Power stations in Oslo by the end of 2022. Though these are ambitious plans, it's important to note that revenues and sales from Norway are not expected to be sizable during this first phase.\n\n Regarding the delivery in Norway, we believe for this year, the contribution is not going to be that significant because our priority is to make sure we can ensure high user satisfaction in the Norway market by building our brand, expanding our sales and service network.\n\nSource:William Bin Li, CEO, NIO Q2 2021 earnings conference call\nUltimately though, NIO is laying the groundwork for prolonged long-term success, growing both its brand and production capacity.\nValuation\nNIO is a fast-growing company in the EV sector, and while high revenue growth is expected, profitability is still far away. With that said, I believe the most adequate way to value such a company is by utilising a Price/Sales ratio. Using current analyst estimates from Seeking Alpha, and assuming a future rate of dilution and multiple, we can arrive at a target price for NIO.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nLet’s take the year 2023, which has estimates by 20 analysts, giving us a reasonable margin of safety. Estimates for 2023 range from $10,66B to $17,61B. I’ll use a conservative middle range number of $14B. December 2022 is about 2 years away, so we should also take into account some share dilution. Let’s assume a generous 6% rate of dilution, putting NIO’s outstanding shares close to 2B. Assuming a P/S ratio of 12, slightly below today’s, we would achieve a target price of $84/share. This is over twice today’s price, a 100% possible gain in slightly over two years.\nRisks\nAlthough I am bullish on NIO and the EV sector, there are important risk factors that we must take into account.\nFor starters, there is the persistent threat of chip shortages. CNBC recently reported that the shortage could last until 2023, which would certainly put a dampener on worldwide production.\nAnother important but less discussed issue, though, is the fact that large quantities of lithium are required to produce the batteries that power EVs. In the last year, lithium prices have more than quadrupled, and this may become an issue moving forward. Higher lithium prices will either limit production or hurt margins, neither of which is a good outcome for EV makers.\nLastly, NIO, together with other Chinese EV companies, may faces the threat of regulation. \nTakeaway\nIn conclusion, NIO is at these prices one of my highest conviction plays. $40/share is a great place to accumulate given the increased interest by both investors and consumers in the EV space. NIO is my favourite company both home and abroad, given its growth plans and a strong emphasis on building brand value. The current headwinds will be temporary, and growth will resume soon.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":848554470,"gmtCreate":1636014616171,"gmtModify":1636014616470,"author":{"id":"3553215902577419","authorId":"3553215902577419","name":"Captangy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aba9372b47fd074f0436f79b150674e1","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Hodl nio!","listText":"Hodl nio!","text":"Hodl nio!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848554470","repostId":1194982054,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":848006067,"gmtCreate":1635946827938,"gmtModify":1635946852746,"author":{"id":"4087109808120260","authorId":"4087109808120260","name":"Tanyl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/174329973340cf0f5b68791ee5b08afd","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Must buy NIO","listText":"Must buy NIO","text":"Must buy NIO","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848006067","repostId":1194982054,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":848008677,"gmtCreate":1635946799029,"gmtModify":1635946850356,"author":{"id":"4087109808120260","authorId":"4087109808120260","name":"Tanyl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/174329973340cf0f5b68791ee5b08afd","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"NIO is a good share","listText":"NIO is a good share","text":"NIO is a good share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848008677","repostId":1194982054,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":841443981,"gmtCreate":1635937912729,"gmtModify":1635937913182,"author":{"id":"3579340169444210","authorId":"3579340169444210","name":"Tygress","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0833a8ce5ec739350942784874a15f01","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Pls rise!&nbsp;","listText":"Pls rise!&nbsp;","text":"Pls rise!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841443981","repostId":1194982054,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":841458896,"gmtCreate":1635937272191,"gmtModify":1635937272653,"author":{"id":"3568940106394782","authorId":"3568940106394782","name":"Cheryi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841458896","repostId":1194982054,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":841487576,"gmtCreate":1635934947792,"gmtModify":1635934948309,"author":{"id":"4087361572396550","authorId":"4087361572396550","name":"ValuInvestor","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a962911d3cd0763a9f0cb01392cacd9","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Certainly hope so, it’s been beaten down a lot","listText":"Certainly hope so, it’s been beaten down a lot","text":"Certainly hope so, it’s been beaten down a lot","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841487576","repostId":1194982054,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":43,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.26.2","shortVersion":"4.26.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1194982054"}