"We Took Out The June 2007 Highs": Morgan Stanley's Sell Signal Just Hit An All Time High

zerohedge2021-06-07

For the past several months, Morgan Stanley's fundamental analysts have been turning increasingly bearish on stocks, with the pessimistic sentimentplateauing earlier this weekwhen chief equity ...

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精彩评论

Titu
2021-06-07
Titu
Pla like
Philipthean8
2021-06-07
Philipthean8
Just be cautios
- Titu:
  Ok
SDLiuSG
2021-06-07
SDLiuSG
Good analysis 👍
- AliceQuah:
  don't simply trust all others said. do own analysis
sleepymoon
2021-06-07
sleepymoon
Like and comment
- Geant:
  like and comment
UHFsdjv
2021-06-07
UHFsdjv
Like please
- Kucing:
  great
- Dougjdempsey:
  1
CalvinYeo
2021-06-07
CalvinYeo
Comment and like, much appreciated
- olddirtbag:
  like and comment
- UHFsdjv:
  ok
- Dougjdempsey:
  2

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The other previous occasions where there was a \"Full House\" Sell Signal were Mar-90, May-92, Jun-07. According to MS,\"in the 6M post the initial Full House Sell Signal, MSCI Europe has fallen on average 6%.\"\nSo with every in house risk indicator screaming sell, does that mean that Morgan Stanley will have the balls to tell its clients to sell? Why of course not, because in this market where stuff like the AMC, GameStop and Bed Bath squeezes force analysts to admit they no longer have any idea what's going on...\n... Morgan Stanley is keeping the hope and assuming that the current period will be similar to 2017 - the only other time when a massive sell signal did not result in a market plunge.\n\nBack in 2017, we remained constructive despite the signal given i) strong EPS growth, ii) an early cycle environment, iii) EU inflows, iv) low sentiment and v) a rise in M&A. Sentiment metrics may look more elevated than in 2017, but many of those factors remain in place today. While we see a trickier risk-reward for equities globally, we maintain our view that there is a compelling case for Europe to outperform global peers.\n\nYet even Morgan Stanley is forced to admit that while Defensives may just scrape by after a record sell signal, cyclicals are about to be hammered. The next chart shows the relative performance of Cyclicals versus Defensives after a Full House Sell Signal on. As MS notes, \"perhaps unsurprisingly, given the poor performance at the market level, Cyclicals have struggled. In the 6M post the four initial Full House Sell Signals, Cyclicals have underperformed Defensives on average 12%, and this drops to -15% looking at any day\nwhen the MTIs have all said sell at the same time.\"\nThis was true even in 2017 when equity markets rose: \"we previously cited similarities with the 2017 Full House Sell Signal as reasons to not get overly cautious on equity markets in aggregate at this moment in time. After the February-2017 Full House Sell Signal, MSCI Europe continued to rise pretty consistently through the rest of the year. However, despite strong performance from the market in aggregate, the performance of Cyclicals versus Defensives was much poorer. Between February and June 2017 Cyclicals underperformed Defensives by 6%.\"\nIt's not just the bank's sell signal that is prompting concerns about the future returns of cyclicals: Borrowing a page from our own warnings (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\"), Morgan Stanley looks at \"a number of China data points which are giving warning signs\" first and foremost the collapse in China's credit impulse, to wit:\nWhile credit tightening has been front-loaded in 1H21, as outlined here, our economists remain constructive on China's growth recovery. Having said that, a number of Chinese data points do suggest the Cyclical bounce looks overextended.China's credit impulse has just turned negative, and historically this has provided a lead indicator for the year-on-year performance of European Cyclicals (Exhibit 5).Similarly, the relative performance of Cyclicals versus Defensives has closely tracked moves in Chinese 10Y bond yields, which are now at their lowest levels since September 2020, standing in sharp contrast to the performance of Cyclicals.\n\nPutting it all together, readers have to ask themselves if what is coming will be an analog of the one and only episode on history when the market did not plunge after all Morgan Stanley market timing indicators hit a sell (and were at an all time high), or will this case be similar to Mar-90, May-92, Jun-07 when the outcome was anything but a happy ending.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":114841025,"gmtCreate":1623068944367,"gmtModify":1634037328225,"author":{"id":"3558865529132556","authorId":"3558865529132556","name":"Titu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f0b0e640551e4ad766c10135d80d562","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3558865529132556","authorIdStr":"3558865529132556"},"htmlText":"Pla like","listText":"Pla like","text":"Pla 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<u>analysis</u></p>\n"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":114898747,"gmtCreate":1623063641489,"gmtModify":1634037374785,"author":{"id":"3555884467896100","authorId":"3555884467896100","name":"sleepymoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/017d47c34167b5c3d7accfb69274dd36","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3555884467896100","authorIdStr":"3555884467896100"},"htmlText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Like and 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