“绝对赢家”FAANG，2021年会怎么样？

英为财情2020-12-17

不用说，FAANG（Facebook、亚马逊、苹果、奈飞、谷歌母公司Alphabet五家科技巨头的简称）肯定是今年资本市场上的大赢家，随着疫情危机的肆虐，人们对于美国科技巨头们提供的服务需求爆棚，随着营收业绩的飙升，这些科技大拿的股价也一路飙升。根据英为财情Investing.com的行情数据显示，纽交所FANG+指数（NYSE FANG+ Index）在过去五年上涨了近170%，超过了...

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精彩评论

NZAaron
2020-12-18
NZAaron
Good👍👍👍
睿姐姐
2020-12-18
睿姐姐
阅
边牧佩
2020-12-18
边牧佩
阅
queensdick
2020-12-18
queensdick
阅
nini2020
2020-12-18
nini2020
还是看好大牛股高科技
octa8
2020-12-18
octa8
[强]

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Levkovich在一份报告中指出，科技股的市盈率在2021年一定会下跌，而被压低的股价还将进一步影响标普500指数的价格。他不认为科技股可以在未来一年大幅上涨，而市值占到标普四分之一的大型科技股的走弱，也预示着标普500的涨幅将有限。不停上升的利率也将会对科技股估值造成压力。10年期美国国债已经从9月份的0.63%上升至了0.89%，因为投资者开始担心通胀过高，而这也表明经济需求增强，在这场对于资金的争夺中，和经济高度相关的价值股将会更有优势。美国十年期国债收益率走势图，来自英为财情Investing.com2021年FAANG面临的风险二：增长其次，科技公司本身的增长也在减速。科技巨头的创新仍在继续，但是盈利增长轨迹或会放缓。要想让FAANG的股价保持同样速度的上涨，这些公司必须在2021年实现一个不太可能的利润水平。也就是说，要符合更高的估值水平，科技股需要提高2021年的收益预期。但是，FactSet的数据显示，标普500指数成份股公司第三季度收益预计较上年同期下降约7%，远低于财报季开始前20%以上的降幅预期。FAANG面临着一些现实层面上的困难。例如，一些广告商正在抵制全球社交媒体巨头Facebook，这可能会抑制其收入。摩根士丹利的经济学家认为，2021年价值型股票的收益会更为光明，他们指出，美国的个人储蓄率已经从大流行前的7%上升到了17%，消费者坐拥15万亿美元现金，当疫苗上市，经济重启时，这些资金会被大量释放，但是利好的确实非必需消费品行业，除非科技股继续创新，否则别指望他们在2021年继续令人兴奋。沃顿商学院的金融学教授Jeremy Siegel也不认为FAANG在2021年会跑赢大盘，更广泛市场的投资者或许不需要担心科技股的下跌，但是“如果你把所有资产都放在这些高价科技股上，你就需要非常谨慎了。”2021年FAANG面临的风险三：反垄断最后，科技巨头在2021年还将面临更多的法律风险。不管是美国本土还是欧洲，这些巨头都在面临更为棘手的反垄断诉讼问题。来自拜登政府加强监管、美国国会、欧盟委员等多方面的不利因素，都会在未来几年对科技巨头构成收益压力。一些政界人士甚至希望看到科技巨头被拆分成更多的小公司，以促进更多的竞争。与此同时，更高的企业税和填补漏洞，也会对收入构成压力。而随着全球经济在疫情危机下的受损，巨头们显然也无法通过提高服务价格来弥补税收的负担。例如，欧盟和美国国会的议员们不喜欢拥有美国互联网搜索市场份额高达87%的谷歌。去年10月，美国司法部(Department of Justice)对谷歌提起了诉讼，此后不久，更多的州检察长也提出了自己的诉讼。尽管该股在2020年表现不错，但是涨势仍然低于FAANG的其他个股。如果这些诉讼在2021年有所结果，该股股价后市可能仍然会受到影响。此外，对于Facebook来说，2021年的挑战也主要来自监管，这家全球社交媒体巨头在今年夏天股价创下新高后，过去几个月一直停滞不前。同时，拜登竞选团队的副联络主管Bill Russo此前还警告称，“Facebook在选举期间创造的虚假信息问题，将会在未来摧毁我们的民主结构。”拜登本人此前也对《通信规范法案》(Communications Decency Act)第230条表示了担忧，该法案赋予科技公司对用户在其平台上发布的内容承担责任的保护。上月初，欧盟也对亚马逊提起了反垄断诉讼，指控该电子商务巨头利用其巨大的规模，迫使在其平台上销售的小型零售商面临不公平的环境，破坏了竞争。不过，也有分析认为，由于美国经济正在遭受全球公共卫生危机的打击，拜登政府应该会谨慎行事。而且，由于共和党对参议院的控制，企业增税也可能会放到2021年后才有可能实现。总结总体而言，FANNG为代表的美国大型科技股在经历了2020年的飙升之后，华尔街的分析师普遍对其2021年的表现持有较为谨慎的观点。飙升的估值、放缓的营收以及越来越严格的外部监管，都是会让投资者对这一篮子巨型科技股望而生畏的风险因素。投资机构Kace Capital 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Polcari认为，整体科技股的机会比FANNG大得多，“我们预计，如果市场在2021年重新定价，那么资金或撤出FANNG，从而进入科技行业的其他领域，因为FANNG在2020年表现过于出色。”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":397625035,"gmtCreate":1608257252927,"gmtModify":1703852061807,"author":{"id":"3569857179667022","authorId":"3569857179667022","authorIdStr":"3569857179667022","name":"NZAaron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d93b23bffa6908c8c6d569d0f2bc6bb9","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Good👍👍👍","listText":"Good👍👍👍","text":"Good👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397625035","repostId":1193988350,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":397668509,"gmtCreate":1608255031701,"gmtModify":1703852043661,"author":{"id":"3565660740689499","authorId":"3565660740689499","authorIdStr":"3565660740689499","name":"睿姐姐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"阅","listText":"阅","text":"阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397668509","repostId":1193988350,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":397618159,"gmtCreate":1608250359171,"gmtModify":1703852014124,"author":{"id":"3567677659014226","authorId":"3567677659014226","authorIdStr":"3567677659014226","name":"边牧佩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57206afcd8628f2c94ede35a4f54c113","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"阅","listText":"阅","text":"阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397618159","repostId":1193988350,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":397613567,"gmtCreate":1608249958759,"gmtModify":1703852011882,"author":{"id":"3516525674650285","authorId":"3516525674650285","authorIdStr":"3516525674650285","name":"queensdick","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d08495683abc1814856e382a083169","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"阅","listText":"阅","text":"阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397613567","repostId":1193988350,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":397698575,"gmtCreate":1608242879197,"gmtModify":1703851988780,"author":{"id":"3564230904857544","authorId":"3564230904857544","authorIdStr":"3564230904857544","name":"nini2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d564be7e608edbeed4715bc20dbdb67","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"还是看好大牛股 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