QuantumScape: Why This SPAC Is Under Attack

seekingalpha2021-04-20

SummaryQS has been targeted by Scorpion Capital in a recent "short report."The report raises some very valid concerns over the claims made by QS.Having said this, I don't believe QS is a fraudulent ...

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精彩评论

希望每天都是美好的
2021-04-21
希望每天都是美好的
You cannot break the laws of thermodynamics
ctanya
2021-04-20
ctanya
Thanks, balanced perspective $Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$speculative - yes fraud - no
- Wei_SG:
  Good read. Thanks.
- ctanya:
  crashing even more... wow
DJBoy
2021-04-20
DJBoy
Better sell it off
Someonelse
2021-04-20
Someonelse
Revive pls
Jlenglui
2021-04-20
Jlenglui
[微笑]
- Pjun:
  cool
- Jlenglui:
  [Grin]
ppptt
2021-04-20
ppptt
Qs

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The company’s CEO even went on CNN and threatened legal action against the controversial short report. In this article, I try to give a balanced look at what QS does and what the possible upside/downside is.Overall, I think that the short report is mostly accurate but naturally self-serving. Having said this, there is little new information in the report for those that have been following QS for some time. It’s obvious to most investors that QS is a speculative play, but I wouldn’t subscribe to the idea that it is a fraudulent company.Company OverviewQuantumScape was formed in 2010 by Jagdeep Singh, Tim Holme and Professor Fritz Prinz from Stanford University. The company was formed to address the most prevalent issue in the EV space, battery technology. EVs run on batteries that have limited range and need to be charged. Therefore, if someone were to come up with a battery that charges much faster and lasts much longer, one would expect the inventor of this technology to reap some hefty rewards.QS is working on just this, through what is known as solid-state batteries.The battery start-up achieves this by replacing the liquid electrolyte that regulates the flow of current with a solid electrolyte. The polymer separator used in conventional lithium-ion batteries is substituted with a solid-state ceramic separator, QuantumScape says. As a result, the less-efficient carbon or carbon-silicon anode is replaced with an anode of pure metallic lithium.Source:ForbesQS established a partnership with Volkswagen AG ADR (OTCPK:VWAGY) in 2012 through a $100 million investment. The company went public through a SPAC in 2020 and has since received a further $100 million in funding from Volkswagen.The \"controversial\" short reportLast week, Scorpion Capital released a 188-slide PowerPoint presentation exposing quite a few arguments attacking the credibility of the company and the actual merits of its technology.While I am by no means an expert on the matter, I have tried to understandboth sidesto the best of my abilities. The report is mighty long, but I think most of it can be summed up into three key technical points which Scorpion argues QS is being deliberately obscure about:Battery performance in low temperaturesCharge speedScalabilityI point to these as they refer to specific hurdles in the battery segment and there have been claims made by QS in these areas, which, at best, have been exaggerated and don’t reflect the true capabilities of this technology.Source:Short ReportThe short report actually alludes to QS’s own investor presentation to point out some glaring inconsistencies. For example, here we see the results for a charging test in cold temperature. What is not apparent at first glance is that, while charging the temperature was actually much higher, 30 degrees Celsius.Source: Short ReportAnother claim that seems to be quite conclusively debunked is that these batteries can be charged in 15 minutes. While this may be true, an equally important question would be how many times can the battery be charged in 15 minutes? QS claims its prototype has a charge life of 800 cycles, but this is only true at a regular 1-hour charging rate.I think the short report makes a good point in saying that QS makes use of some “trickery” and vagueness to make their tech look better. While I am sure QS achieved all of the results it states, we have to look at the minute details. Overall, it seems that different environments and different batteries were used in different experiments to obtain more favourable results.This is in fact one point also made a while ago byfellow SA Contributor Brian Morin, who pointed out that he expects that, at best, QS will be able to manufacture small solid-state batteries which would be able to power small electronic devices, but not, it seems for the moment, cars.Counter ArgumentsThe report is clearly made to discredit QS, and in doing so, Scorpion has actually done much of what it accuses QS of doing. For one, it cites former employees and experts without giving a real source. Secondly, Scorpion itself cherry-picks the information it wants to challenge and even makes assertions about the behaviour of the CEO which are incredibly speculative.I don’t think QS is perpetuating a fraud. For starters, its management has a proven track record of experience and even includes a Stanford professor. Furthermore, while it is true that VW has “only” invested $200 million in the company, one must believe they did some amount of due diligence. The company ponied up the second $100 million only a few weeks ago after QS delivered on milestones, so one way or another the company did meet VW’s expectations.I also find the idea that QS is being deliberately obscure quite problematic. We are talking about a company that is essentially only worth as much as its intellectual property. It is only natural that QS would be cagey about disclosing certain things, especially since Fisker Inc.(NYSE:FSR)was caughttrying to steal such propertyfrom QS.With all this said, I don’t think QS is a fraud, and I do think the company is a leader in its field. As an investment, you are looking at a 10-year time frame, and as mentioned before, much longer before we see these batteries in cars, which is what everyone is hoping for.TakeawayWhile I have to take the report with a big grain of salt, it does provide some legitimate concerns. At the very best, QS is a gamble, and even at these prices, it seems to be an expensive gamble. I would advise keeping away from this at least until the lock-up expiration ends. If you are willing to do the research though, this is a company that you should keep on your watchlist. Breakthroughs don’t happen every day, but when they do, they change things a lot. QS is capable of delivering such breakthroughs, but at the time I can’t justify an investment in it.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":371239981,"gmtCreate":1618937020243,"gmtModify":1631890969133,"author":{"id":"3566829975106028","authorId":"3566829975106028","name":"希望每天都是美好的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b843b1d115e0bd4d43d8f300c985dca9","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"You cannot break the laws of thermodynamics&nbsp;","listText":"You cannot break the laws of thermodynamics&nbsp;","text":"You cannot break the laws of thermodynamics","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371239981","repostId":1193005783,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":371891392,"gmtCreate":1618925687816,"gmtModify":1631887354878,"author":{"id":"3569468280944828","authorId":"3569468280944828","name":"ctanya","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1422b7be4dfbf8a517d6f3557e4f567","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Thanks, balanced perspective <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a>speculative - yes&nbsp; &nbsp; fraud - no","listText":"Thanks, balanced perspective <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a>speculative - yes&nbsp; &nbsp; fraud - no","text":"Thanks, balanced perspective $Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$speculative - yes fraud - no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371891392","repostId":1193005783,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4084063,"gmtCreate":1618926726433,"gmtModify":1635515485968,"authorId":3575197281936888,"author":{"id":3575197281936888,"authorId":3575197281936888,"name":"Wei_SG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ba87fc9c0b7e4dd09ea9e2b561b741e","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":371891392,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<p>Good read. Thanks.</p>","text":"<p>Good read. Thanks.</p>","html":"<p>Good read. Thanks.</p>"},{"id":4288857,"gmtCreate":1620708086910,"gmtModify":1635498216883,"authorId":3569468280944828,"author":{"id":3569468280944828,"authorId":3569468280944828,"name":"ctanya","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1422b7be4dfbf8a517d6f3557e4f567","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":371891392,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"crashing even more... <u>wow</u>","text":"crashing even more... <u>wow</u>","html":"crashing even more... <u>wow</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":371988142,"gmtCreate":1618901883786,"gmtModify":1634290021364,"author":{"id":"3578917676674127","authorId":"3578917676674127","name":"DJBoy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e89ddb65fea14052b67a417c63273930","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Better sell it off","listText":"Better sell it off","text":"Better sell it off","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371988142","repostId":1193005783,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":371981352,"gmtCreate":1618901802376,"gmtModify":1634290022079,"author":{"id":"3572697049328629","authorId":"3572697049328629","name":"Someonelse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/565912489d2649d83bea8e52f43f2e6c","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Revive pls","listText":"Revive pls","text":"Revive pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371981352","repostId":1193005783,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":371919702,"gmtCreate":1618900908206,"gmtModify":1634290029110,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371919702","repostId":1193005783,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4096945,"gmtCreate":1619047737927,"gmtModify":1635514460854,"authorId":3568112587764186,"author":{"id":3568112587764186,"authorId":3568112587764186,"name":"Pjun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cfe0a02203e702b7aae055eaa9823be","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":371919702,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>cool</u>","text":"<u>cool</u>","html":"<u>cool</u>"},{"id":4110866,"gmtCreate":1619153586751,"gmtModify":1635513303995,"authorId":3579491276699992,"author":{"id":3579491276699992,"authorId":3579491276699992,"name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":371919702,"type":1,"supId":4096945,"prevId":0,"content":"[Grin]","text":"[Grin]","html":"[Grin]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":371910353,"gmtCreate":1618900760972,"gmtModify":1634290030312,"author":{"id":"3581587307331467","authorId":"3581587307331467","name":"ppptt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d531e151cf66e5f50cc683fb8684eb8f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Qs","listText":"Qs","text":"Qs","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371910353","repostId":1193005783,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":9,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.1","shortVersion":"4.25.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1193005783"}