南非新变种毒株的由来、发酵与市场影响

川阅全球宏观2021-11-27

作者：陶川，邵翔，段萌 2021年11月25日，南非科学家宣布发现新冠新变种菌株B.1.1529，该毒株导致南非豪登省的新增新冠病例数呈指数式增长，其远超德尔塔毒株的传染性以及更强的免疫逃逸能力引发全球关注。而本次疫情发生变数的时点，恰逢市场预期美联储将于12月宣布加快taper之际，短期内可能对金融市场的风险偏好有较大压制。我们在本文对新变种毒株的致病性及对疫苗的抵抗力进行了探讨，并结合前几次...

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精彩评论

云里梦里飞
2021-11-29
云里梦里飞
跌到爹妈不认得然后抄底吗？
- AliciaLing:
  今晚机会又来了
- 云里梦里飞:
  哈哈上周五据说是散户抄底最好时机
- AliciaLing:
  爹妈记忆好，没机抄
CKWAI
2021-11-29
CKWAI
来，回复和点赞，谢谢
- CKWAI:
  谢谢
hhyw
2021-11-29
hhyw
跌个地朝天吧😁😁
- 云里梦里飞:
  抄底？
嘉豪9191
2021-11-29
嘉豪9191
哦
钱包君你要振作起来
2021-11-29
钱包君你要振作起来
魔王出现了
- hhyw:
  好
BabyShark222
2021-11-28
BabyShark222
唉三小
- Paulyang:
  一波未完一波又开
- BabyShark222:
  唉

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strain","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b035485a98b119e67a697e6159cda9b","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"作者：陶川，邵翔，段萌\n2021年11月25日，南非科学家宣布发现新冠新变种菌株B.1.1529，该毒株导致南非豪登省的新增新冠病例数呈指数式增长，其远超德尔塔毒株的传染性以及更强的免疫逃逸能力引发全球关注。而本次疫情发生变数的时点，恰逢市场预期美联储将于12月宣布加快taper之际，短期内可能对金融市场的风险偏好有较大压制。我们在本文对新变种毒株的致病性及对疫苗的抵抗力进行了探讨，并结合前几次疫情爆发时点后的资产表现对疫情的市场影响进行了分析。\n\n本次疫情爆发的背景及当前状况如何？距离科学家宣布新病毒的发现仅两天，但南非超90%的新增新冠案例均为其感染者(图2)。\n\n南非新变种毒株被首次发现于博茨瓦纳。根据BBC新闻报道，这是迄今为止发现的变异最严重的毒株，共有50余个突变。南非流行病应对和创新中心主任德奥利维拉教授表示，新变种毒株的棘突蛋白上有30多个突变(棘突蛋白是大多数疫苗的靶点，也是病毒打开进入人体细胞大门的钥匙)，而受体结合域(病毒第一次接触人体细胞的部分)有10个突变(德尔塔变种毒株只有两个)。全球范围内，以色列、比利时和我国香港均发现了新变种毒株的感染者，这可能对刚刚开始复苏的旅游业造成沉重的打击。\n\n传染性有多强?传播速度为德尔塔、阿尔法等变种毒株之最。新变种毒株造成南非病例激增，新增新冠案例人数已经从每天300人左右上升到近2500人。德尔塔约用时100天才达到占据全部新增病例的90%，而南非变种毒株在大约十分之一的时间内就达到了。\n新冠疫苗和检测的作用如何?核酸和抗原检测有望继续生效。尽管对于疫苗的有效性仍待观察，但是南非国家传染病研究所指出，新变种毒株的突变不太可能是恶意的，现有疫苗很可能继续有效地预防重症和死亡。尽管疫苗突变可能使得疫苗保护率降低，但这并不意味着疫苗的失效。\n新变种冲击下防疫政策发生了什么变化?以英国为首的国家和地区收紧防疫政策，国际旅行首当其冲。例如英国将南非等六个受感染的国家列入“红名单”，直飞被禁止，途径归国的旅客需要进行核酸检验和居家隔离;以色列则直接禁止居民去相关感染地区旅行。此前德尔塔疫情反扑的教训表明，尽管早期旅行限制可以缓解新病毒的影响，但难以阻止它。不过在经历了德尔塔毒株后，政府的应对更加及时、更加注意提前防护。\n\n市场影响如何?新变种的消息可能是“压死骆驼的最后一根稻草”。新变种毒株在南非的爆发以及向全球的蔓延引发了市场的恐慌，全球主要股市、国债收益率和大宗商品(尤其是原油)大幅下跌。不过鉴于当前尚没有充足的数据证明新变种的冲击，我们认为在前期利空因素的累积下，疫情变异的消息可能是压垮全球风险资产的“最后一根稻草”，这些利空因素可能包括：①高通胀和供给约束下，全球经济的增长动能明显放缓;②全球货币政策转向的速度开始加快，市场预期美联储很可能在2021年12月议息会议上加速taper;③Delta病毒的冲击下欧洲部分国家已经重启封锁，而封锁的范围还在进一步扩大;③对于原油来说，美国等经济体的抛储信号和操作带来了额外的利空压力;④交易层面，临近年终，此前获利颇丰的投资仓位在面临不确定性时会更加倾向于获利了结。\n从具体资产的表现来看，油价和10年期美债收益率下跌是疫情爆发的“标配”，从图5至8可以看出，在诸多利空因素的加成下，本次市场调整的幅度要明显大于Delta病毒爆发时;美元和黄金都能发挥“避险资产”的作用，但两者不能兼得。新变种毒株的出现使得市场对美联储的紧缩预期有所降温，导致美元跌、黄金涨。\n\n如何看待新变种毒株带来的变数?对于市场参与者来说，接下来要重点关注新变种毒株的致病性和疫苗抗性。如果这些方面的严重性超预期，全球经济复苏的节奏可能再次被打断，或将导致美联储收紧的迫切性降低，冲击11月以来“激进”的市场紧缩预期。交易上，可以考虑适时做平曲线，降低做空长端美债的仓位。\n本周(2021.11.22-2021.11.26，下同)海外市场回顾：根据万得数据，南非发现的新冠变异病毒再次引发了市场的担忧情绪，欧美股指全线收跌，2021年11月26日标普500指数创2月以来最大单日跌幅。本周道琼斯指数累计跌幅1.97%，标普500指数累计跌幅2.20%，纳斯达克指数累计跌幅3.52%，德国DAX指数累计跌幅5.59%，法国CAC40指数累计跌幅5.24%，英国富时100指数累计跌幅2.49%。避险情绪下资金流入债市，11月26日，10年期美债收益率下行16个基点报1.48%，30年期美债收益率下行14个基点报1.83%。变种毒株的阴霾下全球经济复苏承压，11月26日，国际油价全线下跌，美油1月合约跌13.04%，报68.17美元/桶，布油2月合约跌11.27%，报71.80美元/桶，本周布油2月合约累计跌幅8.99%。贵金属方面，本周COMEX黄金累计跌幅3.2%，COMEX白银累计跌幅6.6%。\n风险提示：疫情扩散超预期，国内外政策超预期","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":600871784,"gmtCreate":1638143133208,"gmtModify":1638143133482,"author":{"id":"3568431359478653","authorId":"3568431359478653","name":"云里梦里飞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db96756ff214a0066bf8ab2c997583b0","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568431359478653","authorIdStr":"3568431359478653"},"htmlText":"跌到爹妈不认得 然后抄底吗？","listText":"跌到爹妈不认得 然后抄底吗？","text":"跌到爹妈不认得 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