AMC Entertainment: Embracing The Absurd

seekingalpha2021-06-11

Summary I am cautiously bullish even with AMC severely overvalued. AMC was granted two gifts so far, the ending of the pandemic and millions of apes descending onto the scene. Adam Aron and the AMC ...

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精彩评论

11d76adf
2021-06-13
11d76adf
to the moon
DSS
2021-06-12
DSS
Great
daggerw
2021-06-12
daggerw
Diamond hands💎💎💎
- koolgal:
  Love it
AloysiusTeh
2021-06-12
AloysiusTeh
Wew
Iwanhuang
2021-06-12
Iwanhuang
hmmm
smokeNdrink
2021-06-12
smokeNdrink
Too much uncertainty in this stock

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First of all I must preface that I am of sound mind (I think) and I do recognize an extremely overvalued stock when I see it. However, there are times that an out of the box opportunity surfaces that I simply just cannot ignore regardless of current valuation. I have a tendency to focus more on looking ahead for opportunity versus past and current performance and opportunity loss.\nWith that said, I do caution if you fit any of the following categories, please close out of this page and select something else to read:\n\nOnly invest in proven net income generating companies with a PE ratio less than 12.\nWon’t touch anything that hasn’t progressively increased dividends over the last ten years.\nLeery of any company that is saddled with debt, overburdened by operating cost structure, struggling with generating revenue stream, ever increasing competition and a seemingly endless flow of dilutive share offerings.\n\nReading on\nNow if you’re still reading you are either not of sound mind, have an innovative outlook that enjoys exploring creative alternatives that challenges conventional wisdom or you’re an ape. I’m sure there may be many that fit all three. Regardless of whether you fit into one, two or all three of the characteristics above, you may want to be prepared for my next statement. In fact, you may need to walk away and return later after digesting this. I won’t fault anyone that doesn’t return.\nI am long AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:AMC).\nDo not get me wrong, I wholeheartedly agree with most of the points that are made by countless analysts regarding the insanity surrounding AMC. Using basic fundamentals, an investor doesn’t need to look any further than the following data to conclude that it is best to stay away. Operating income generation is historically less than interest payments as shown below.\n\nSource: company data\nIt does not take rocket science to surmise that this is a very capital intensive company in the dynamically changing world of entertainment that is saddled with debt and a fairly clear path to bankruptcy under complacent strategic focus. In fact, my article,Cinemark Improves Liquidity And The Moviegoer Experience, published on December 2, 2020 took a bullish stance as Cinemark (CNK) had a clear liquidity advantage as well as a front running position in providing an enhanced consumer experience. Although Cinemark still has competitive advantages over rival AMC, tables are turning rapidly.\nThe magical lamp\nIt should be obvious to everyone on the planet that Adam Aron, CEO of AMC must have stumbled upon the magical genie lamp, most likely buried in the boxes of movie props from Aladdin. Imagine Aron’s surprise when he realized the prop actually contained the powerful genie. With three wishes at his fingertips, the pursuit to save AMC promptly ensued.\nWish 1: end the pandemic\nThe obvious first wish, ending the pandemic to allow people to return to some normalcy may have been somewhat selfishly aimed at getting theaters filled, but in reality, we all would have made that the first wish as well. It still may take some time to get everyone back on board with enough confidence to fill the seats. If the images from the first full capacity Bruins game on Saturday May 29 are any indicator, most are ready.\n\nSource: Author\nWish 2: liquidity\nBy the humorous way the second wish was granted, it is apparent that Adam Aron stumbled upon the lamp containing the greatest genie of all time. There’s only one genie that could creatively and comically have millions of apes descend onto the movie scene chanting the ‘Save AMC’ mantra. As the 6 month market cap chart below shows, the mega big screen and comedic spirit infused genie isn’t only hilarious but effective too. The ape driven liquidity improvements are buying AMC the much needed capital for survival and future growth.\n\nSource:SA Charts\nSurely there aren’t enough words or tweets that Adam Aron can express for the gratitude he owes to the diamond handed WSB AMC apes. With a wink to the heavens, the Investor Connect program as texted by Aron is a nice gesture of gratitude and should prove to be well received by the truly diamond handed.\n\nSource: Twitter\nThe second wish to repair liquidity is still in the mid-grant stage and by no means over or even a foregone conclusion as many battles are ongoing across multiple fronts.\nFirst and foremost, the psychological internal battle that every investor deals with, never truly knowing when to buy or sell, is the largest risk to share price. The more a stock becomes disjointed with the fundamental realities, the greater the struggle. Investors internally debate, rationalize and self-negotiate with the following unknown questions:\n\nIs a double, triple or a ten bagger enough?\nShould I take short term profits on all or some?\nMomentum seems strong, should I buy more at these levels in hopes to ride it higher?\nShould I just keep it on the table for the long term?\nWho will blink first?\n\nThese psychological effects normally follow a scripted playbook that technical analysts can normally rely on. However, meme stocks are not normal by any stretch as witnessed by the extreme emotional back and forth battle between sellers and buyers. Sellers will be hanging on for dear life as they attempt to remain solvent as they wait out the inevitable selling frenzy. Buyers will attempt to hang on for as long as possible in hopes to inflict as much pain on the sellers as possible, also keeping an eye on solvency.\nObjectively and mathematically speaking, bulls will always have an inherent advantage. Downward losses in any equity is finite while upward gains in any given equity is infinite. It really does come down to supply and demand. Bears rely on poor management, a failing business model and most importantly the unwillingness of bulls to fund failure.\nAMC was given a great gift and they have capitalized through much needed dilution. Adam Aron and the AMC team must be extremely diligent not to go all paper-handed. The delicate balancing act on the head of the pin with respect to over diluting could most certainly trigger a selloff of epic proportions. The paper-hand temptations exist everywhere and the bears know it and rely on it. That is why the fundamentals do matter a lot and must be drastically and positively changed and in a hurry.\nNow that millions of apes have put a band aid on AMC, it is imperative for Aron to put forth a winning strategic business plan leading into any further dilution. Dilution for debt recovery alone won't do enough. Dilution for growth and earnings is the only viable solution.\nThe final wish\nSo we all know what Adam Aron’s first two wishes were. One to end the pandemic and the other to band aid liquidity issues, which both were granted. Now here we are waiting to see what the third wish will be. The third wish needs to be innovative, forward thinking, large scale and most importantly deliver explosive ever-increasing profitable growth. Adam Aron better be thinking in comparative scale of what Steve Jobs brought to the table for Apple when he re-took the helm in 1997.\nOf course, AMC can take the windfall for what it is to restructure debt while plodding along the same narrow path of falling revenues and increasing operating costs, which will certainly buy some time. However, debt reduction and restructuring should not be investors' primary concern. Investors must be looking for AMC to use the next capital raise for fundamental change that profitably taps into the enormous entertainment market.\nWith these gifts that have magically appeared seemingly from thin air, AMC has this one opportunity to redefine itself. AMC can take a multitude of directions to put big smiles on the apes funding this defining moment. Here are a few off-the-cuff thoughts that could be game changing as examples of where this investor's mind is as far as scale.\nBuild upon the early successes of the private theater rental program.\n\nReduce the number of large capacity screening rooms for more creatively designed rooms that can accommodate smaller gatherings.\nUtilize these rooms for other events beyond movies such as the big sports game, video gaming play / tournaments and special early viewings of exclusive streamed content.\nAdd onsite or online betting for the sporting events.\n\nA game-changing acquisition, merger or partnerships to capture a broader market presence.\n\nA few more ape dollars in share price could allow for an offering to Cinemark shareholders that could easily absorb their $2.8B market cap. The combined force would help level the playing field with the vertical influences within the entertainment industry.\nA synergistic shared real estate partnership with WSB perennial favorite GameStop (GME) as theaters share commonality for both movie watching and video game-play.\n\nAlthough creating scenarios and narratives are fun and are a big part of my strategy when looking for coal with diamond possibilities, investor must not get buried in whimsical ideals and ignore realities. AMC leadership will determine if this meme gift will be game changing for investors or will just merely be a cash grab for executives and insiders.\nConclusion\nMy bullish stance is completely predicated on the opportunity that this 'Save AMC' effort is giving AMC. The next moves by Adam Aron and AMC will certainly be a driving force in determining whether or not my hands are made of diamonds or of paper. Reopening theaters and going back to the dismal mode of operation that existed pre-COVID alone will not suffice. In fact, if that is the plan, sellers should hang on for the round-trip in share price.\nOf course, like everyone, the internal struggles that force buying and selling are always present. For now, I remain cautiously optimistic, AMC led by Adam Aron will lean diamond while putting forth a big effort for the ages. The first sign of AMC weakness in strategic vision will send this shareholder to the theater's exit. The pressure is on AMC to turn their hands of coal into diamond. There's a community of apes relying on it.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":186409451,"gmtCreate":1623515609873,"gmtModify":1634032193689,"author":{"id":"3562483301865399","authorId":"3562483301865399","name":"11d76adf","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"to the moon","listText":"to the moon","text":"to the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186409451","repostId":1189985902,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":186174962,"gmtCreate":1623481666556,"gmtModify":1634032518190,"author":{"id":"3577139149377347","authorId":"3577139149377347","name":"DSS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186174962","repostId":1189985902,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":188773355,"gmtCreate":1623463751477,"gmtModify":1631892180991,"author":{"id":"3581756393031205","authorId":"3581756393031205","name":"daggerw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4157c588742934fdb76cbe005dc6ec0","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Diamond hands💎💎💎","listText":"Diamond hands💎💎💎","text":"Diamond hands💎💎💎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188773355","repostId":1189985902,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4705276,"gmtCreate":1623472339826,"gmtModify":1631892180997,"authorId":3559581955535845,"author":{"id":3559581955535845,"authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":188773355,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Love <u>it</u>","text":"Love <u>it</u>","html":"Love <u>it</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":188215519,"gmtCreate":1623447629931,"gmtModify":1634033153235,"author":{"id":"3570890333574915","authorId":"3570890333574915","name":"AloysiusTeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3ab529277f15a771f15f99c794a1243","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Wew","listText":"Wew","text":"Wew","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188215519","repostId":1189985902,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":188209246,"gmtCreate":1623438765385,"gmtModify":1634033176490,"author":{"id":"3575334369204990","authorId":"3575334369204990","name":"Iwanhuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47dd01b512bd6b8cac812b8fc76b7485","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"hmmm","listText":"hmmm","text":"hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188209246","repostId":1189985902,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":188673978,"gmtCreate":1623437121494,"gmtModify":1634033184223,"author":{"id":"3582007343821699","authorId":"3582007343821699","name":"smokeNdrink","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcfe7d77d87032fcb322568da8bbbbd","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Too much uncertainty in this stock","listText":"Too much uncertainty in this stock","text":"Too much uncertainty in this stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188673978","repostId":1189985902,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":50,"commentSize":35,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; 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