Palantir: A Defense Of My $5 Price Target

Seeking Alpha2022-01-14

SummaryI respond to reader feedback on my most recent Palantir article.Reader feedback is divided into four categories: valuation, company losses, moat, and scalability.I stand by my assertion that ...

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XLMM
2022-01-14
XLMM
That is some analysis!
AdrinaChow
2022-01-14
AdrinaChow
Like

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With over 700 comments and a significant amount of (negative) feedback, I believe it is appropriate to share my thoughts on some of the most important questions I have received in this article. In terms of disclosure, I do not have a short position in Palantir and do not intend to open one. I simply believe that the company's stock is difficult, if not impossible, to justify based on the company's financials.My $5 Price Target For PalantirIn my previous article, \"Palantir: Fair Value Of $5,\" I claimed that the big-data company was fundamentally and unjustifiably overvalued. My reasoning was that a company that has been in business for as long as Palantir should have much better financials in place that look significantly better than what we see in the 10Q quarterly reports.My main concern was Palantir's valuation, which requires buyers to pay a sales multiple of twenty. A P/E ratio of 20 would be considered high in normal and more sober times. Even allowing for Palantir's annual growth rate of 30%+, paying 20 times (expected) sales is still a bit of a stretch and requires a lot of faith that the sales growth will actually materialize. Even if it does, Palantir's valuation appears indefensible.I'd like to take this opportunity to address some of the feedback I received regarding the four areas where I received the most questions (valuation, company losses, moat and scalability).ValuationMany readers strongly disagreed with my assessment. The most common question I received centered on the idea that Palantir achieves significant revenue growth and that, as a result of this rapid growth, Palantir deserves a market capitalization of at least $10 billion.This argument ignores the fact that, for valuation purposes, the size of the revenue base is just as important as the rate of sales growth. I also don't deny that Palantir's revenue is rapidly increasing. According to the company's long-term sales forecast, the company is aiming for a 30% annual growth rate. Palantir's outlook was confirmed in the company's most recent quarterly earnings report, and the company expects 40% growth this year.Palantir is rapidly expanding, but the revenue base must be considered alongside the sales growth rate for any sense to be made. If I run a business with $1 million in annual sales and double my sales every year, that doesn't mean the company \"should be worth $10 billion.\" This conclusion cannot be reached without taking into account the dollar revenue base. While Palantir's revenue growth rate of 30% should not be overlooked, it is not 100%.Palantir has a market capitalization of $34 billion, and the market expects revenue of $1.53 billion in 2021 and $1.99 billion in 2022. Here, the implied sales multiples are 22 (2021e) and 17 (2022e). Palantir's growth multiples are excessive and are at risk of further contraction. Paying around 20 times sales for a business, even if it is perfect, is more than a stretch; it may be a suicide mission.IPO And LossesIn response to my previous article, I received a lot of feedback along the lines of \"Palantir is investing money, and this money will come back later in terms of free cash flow,\" or \"Palantir just had its IPO, and profits are not expected.\"Both arguments, in my opinion, are flawed.Palantir is not a young company that recently went public and is looking for capital to invest. Palantir has been in business since 2003 and has yet to make a profit. In fact, company insiders have taken advantage of the market's opportunity this year to sell a large number of Class A shares in 2021.This article, which is a must-read for any Palantir investor, delves deeper into the insider sales situation that has emerged this year.In other words, insiders with equity stakes are cashing out by dumping shares on unsuspecting retail investors willing to pay 20 times sales for a loss-making company. That story has been told to me several times in my life.Palantir is not only losing money this year, as I explained in my previous article. Throughout its existence, the big-data company has suffered losses and accumulated losses at an alarming rate. Palantir's losses in 2021 are \"only\" $364 million. The loss may be much lower than last year by the end of September, but it is still a loss.And, in business valuation, profits/losses should be just as important as sales forecast, which, in most cases, is positive. The point that I believe was overlooked in my previous Palantir article is that the company has $5.3 billion in accumulated losses. Accounting rules require an accumulated deficit to appear on a company's balance sheet and is deducted from stockholders' equity. It displays the total of a company's losses accumulated during its active period of operation. Palantir's accumulated deficits total $5.3 billion, compared to $7.6 billion in total paid-in capital. In layman's terms, Palantir has depleted 70% of its investor capital. That's a frightening figure.Concerning the statement \"Palantir is investing in its growth and will recoup its investment later\": Palantir has been stuck in this phase for nearly two decades, and the company is still not profitable. Shouldn't some of the money invested 10 or more years ago have already returned?The magnitude of the company's accumulated deficit, as well as the incredibly long period of time, two decades, during which losses have accumulated, raise serious concerns about Palantir's capital allocation. How much credit would you or I qualify for if we went to a bank with a 20-year history of making business losses?MoatQuestions have been raised about why I believe Palantir lacks a significant moat in its business, despite the fact that the company's clients include numerous government agencies. The implication here appears to be that Palantir's relationship network serves as a moat.Palantir works with a number of cash-rich government agencies that use the company's technology platforms across the board. I don't deny that Palantir's platforms, or \"foundries,\" as the company refers to them, perform critical data management and analytics functions. Palantir was recently awarded contracts worth millions of dollars by the United States Army and the Space Systems Command. The Army contract is worth more than $800 million, while the Space Systems Command contract is worth $43 million.That being said, I do not deny that Palantir has been successful in obtaining contract awards. What I mean is that Palantir must go through competitive processes in order to win bids. Contracts are not awarded based on Palantir's \"relationships\" with the government. To be honest, this would be illegal. As a result, the notion that the company's relationships aid Palantir in the construction of a moat is false.ScalabilitySome of the comments I received focused on Palantir's ability to capitalize on the big data revolution, as well as Palantir's scalability.But where is this scalability, which is frequently mentioned as a reason to buy the stock?Palantir has stated that it requires personnel to walk customers through the functionality of its foundries. Software that necessitates customer pilots is both time consuming and costly in terms of human resources. That is the inverse of \"scale.\"The ability to have decreasing marginal costs is a key feature of scalability. With a large enough customer base, marginal costs can be reduced to zero. This is not the case for Palantir, which must be available to clients to teach them the intricacies of the deployed platforms or walk them through new functionalities. Palantir, in my opinion, is more akin to an IT consulting firm that also sells software products. But I don't see real scalability with Palantir.RisksPalantir is not a profitable company. Palantir is heavily diluted. Insiders at Palantir are selling. Even with 30% annual revenue growth, Palantir's stock remains wildly overpriced.High-multiple stocks, particularly in the technology sector, have recently begun to consolidate, and more downside is on the way as investors become less willing to pay top dollar for businesses that have flown high but failed to meet high expectations.Palantir's valuation is a huge issue, and despite the fact that the big-data company operates in a sexy industry with a lot of hype, the business fundamentals simply do not justify Palantir's market price.My ConclusionI'm not saying Palantir doesn't have significant annual sales growth. I'm not saying Palantir's products are useless to the government. What I am saying is that Palantir's loss-making business does not merit a sales multiple of 20. Even if it was profitable, it wouldn't deserve this kind of sales multiple.That's why I'm sticking to my $5 price target for Palantir. A $5 price target implies a $10 billion market valuation and a sales multiple of 5, which is still more than generous. Due to the persistence of business losses, an earnings multiple is unfortunately inapplicable here. I believe that the majority of the feedback was well-intentioned, but the bull case still has some serious flaws.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":694754183,"gmtCreate":1642135767949,"gmtModify":1642135767949,"author":{"id":"4100909250192760","authorId":"4100909250192760","name":"XLMM","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4100909250192760","authorIdStr":"4100909250192760"},"htmlText":"That is some analysis!","listText":"That is some analysis!","text":"That is some analysis!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694754183","repostId":1189278661,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":694768904,"gmtCreate":1642127466476,"gmtModify":1642127466961,"author":{"id":"3583131237618472","authorId":"3583131237618472","name":"AdrinaChow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1b867f4c2019d6ec313665b1af8431b","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583131237618472","authorIdStr":"3583131237618472"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694768904","repostId":1189278661,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.4","shortVersion":"4.29.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1189278661"}