7月加息100基点？美国通胀“破9”，分析师火速解读来了！

金十数据 2022-07-13

美联储观察显示，美国联邦基金利率期货显示美联储有80%的可能在9月再次加息75个基点。互换市场显示美联储7月加息100基点的概率有三分之一。而在数据公布前，美联储互换市场就充分定价美联储7月加息75个基点。北京时间7月13日20:30，市场瞩目的美国6月CPI数据公布。美国6月未季调CPI年率录得9.1%，为1981年11月以来最大增幅，预期8.80%，前值8.60%。美国6月季调后CPI月率...

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精彩评论

嘉嘉嘉
2022-07-14
嘉嘉嘉
预期加100
孟德迟到了
2022-07-14
孟德迟到了
放水的时候说不会通胀，得让华尔街吃饱。收水的时候又说加息不够猛，得让散户爆仓，华尔街好抄底。
一夜秋风叶无痕
2022-07-13
一夜秋风叶无痕
这药的剂量加的够大的啊，不怕嗑药磕死的吗
gdudhfjjfjzh
2022-07-13
gdudhfjjfjzh
通胀面前最脆弱的一类人群之一就是已经或即将退休的人…粗暴加息“股市-退休金”缩水，无异于打击他们的生活质量…
- Shinyoung:
  good
- 嗜血天隼:
  66
- 幸运无畏虎:
  漫天星光沿途散播，长路尽处有灯火。
- 奈何桥de旋律:
  666
- 且打且珍惜:
  好
gdudhfjjfjzh
2022-07-13
gdudhfjjfjzh
短时间没用降税吧……

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Anstey指出，无论从整体数据还是核心数据的环比涨幅来看，这都是一个显著的涨幅。这巩固美联储在7月会议上加息75个基点的预期。白宫不会给（CPI数据高企）这件事裹上糖衣。那些过时的、落后的解释不会让公众满意。美联储观察显示，美国联邦基金利率期货显示美联储有80%的可能在9月再次加息75个基点。互换市场显示美联储7月加息100基点的概率有三分之一。数据公布后，7月合约的利率一度升至2.416％，比当前有效联邦基金利率高出约83.6个基点。这意味着市场认为加息幅度达到75个基点已经确定无疑，而且加息整整一个百分点的概率大约三分之一。此前在数据公布前，美联储互换市场就充分定价美联储7月加息75个基点，押注美国将需要加快货币紧缩步伐，以遏制通胀。瑞穗集团全球宏观策略交易主管Peter Chatwell表示：美联储现在需要保持激进，这样它才能在9月份评估形势，并可能在第四季度采取不那么激进的紧缩路线。超9%的数据意味着通胀还未见顶？分析师Katia Dmitrieva指出，对美联储和美国人来说，一个不受欢迎的信号是，通胀仍然广泛存在。虽然能源和食品价格是物价上涨的主要原因，但其他商品和服务价格继续承压。从细分数据来看，分析师Katia Dmitrie指出，食品指数的上升速度比前一个月慢。但增幅相当大，6月份较5月份增长1%。全年差不多都在以这个速度增长。另一个导致CPI大涨的因素是油价，根据美国汽车协会AAA的数据，美国汽油价格在6月创下历史新高，平均超过每加仑5美元，不过汽油价格已经从峰值下跌，周三平均为每加仑4.631美元，这可能会减轻消费者的一些压力。目前高通胀和不断上升的借贷成本引发了人们对明年初经济衰退的担忧。财经网站Forexlive指出，美国的通货膨胀正在加剧。联邦基金期货市场迅速定价美联储加息100个基点的几率为23%的预期。当月CPI能源指数上涨7.5%，贡献了总涨幅的近一半。能源价格同比上涨41.6%。除此之外，汽车行业也令人担忧，因为它仍处于高位，租金继续攀升。二手车数据尤其令人惊讶。「CPI超过9%」这个数字对普通民众来说并不好看，美联储要想软化立场将会很困难。彭博经济学家Anna指出，尽管所有人都预期6月份CPI数据会上升，但这一意外上升包含了一个市场尚未消化的重要信号：这意味着通胀仍未见顶。即使由于大宗商品价格下跌导致下一份数据会走软，但今年夏天晚些时候，通胀年率可能会再次上升。美联储一直在寻找通胀正在减速的「清晰而令人信服」的迹象，但除非经济开始以更快的速度降温，否则这种情况不会发生。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":688567964,"gmtCreate":1657754624762,"gmtModify":1704868158389,"author":{"id":"4179832666473","authorId":"4179832666473","name":"嘉嘉嘉","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"预期加100","listText":"预期加100","text":"预期加100","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/688567964","repostId":1188823862,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":688585766,"gmtCreate":1657729761757,"gmtModify":1704868139350,"author":{"id":"148326979664115","authorId":"148326979664115","name":"孟德迟到了","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/e8ab403d5b62cc9c5c6701cee1273d05","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"放水的时候说不会通胀，得让华尔街吃饱。收水的时候又说加息不够猛，得让散户爆仓，华尔街好抄底。&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"放水的时候说不会通胀，得让华尔街吃饱。收水的时候又说加息不够猛，得让散户爆仓，华尔街好抄底。&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"放水的时候说不会通胀，得让华尔街吃饱。收水的时候又说加息不够猛，得让散户爆仓，华尔街好抄底。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/688585766","repostId":1188823862,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":688535252,"gmtCreate":1657719233580,"gmtModify":1704868104783,"author":{"id":"3445159013366322","authorId":"3445159013366322","name":"一夜秋风叶无痕","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ca6258f3dfefdf2fa4d08a71a8aa26a","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75944ad144f2566ba526ce9b292d3cd2","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"这药的剂量加的够大的啊，不怕嗑药磕死的吗","listText":"这药的剂量加的够大的啊，不怕嗑药磕死的吗","text":"这药的剂量加的够大的啊，不怕嗑药磕死的吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/688535252","repostId":1188823862,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":688532792,"gmtCreate":1657718839218,"gmtModify":1704868103590,"author":{"id":"3493041815189173","authorId":"3493041815189173","name":"gdudhfjjfjzh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"通胀面前最脆弱的一类人群之一就是已经或即将退休的人…粗暴加息“股市-退休金”缩水，无异于打击他们的生活质量…","listText":"通胀面前最脆弱的一类人群之一就是已经或即将退休的人…粗暴加息“股市-退休金”缩水，无异于打击他们的生活质量…","text":"通胀面前最脆弱的一类人群之一就是已经或即将退休的人…粗暴加息“股市-退休金”缩水，无异于打击他们的生活质量…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/688532792","repostId":1188823862,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7535786,"gmtCreate":1657724770999,"gmtModify":1657724771991,"authorId":157448591780245,"author":{"id":157448591780245,"authorId":157448591780245,"name":"Shinyoung","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f2a56653fdee1642a2b9399ff0eabb9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":688532792,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"good","text":"good","html":"good"},{"id":7535778,"gmtCreate":1657724710484,"gmtModify":1657724711435,"authorId":20389118290905,"author":{"id":20389118290905,"authorId":20389118290905,"name":"嗜血天隼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5819a62c030ab37e1593bc7bbe80e2ee","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":688532792,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span 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