5 Reasons To Buy Microsoft In 2022

Seeking Alpha2022-01-16

SummarySecular trends will likely see Microsoft's cloud and enterprise-facing businesses achieve robust growth in 2022 and beyond.The company has regularly exceeded analysts’ estimates on both ...

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Meanwhile, bullish assessments concerning the impact of the Omicron variant have sparked a rotation away from tech stocks, and into more cyclical stocks in the consumer discretionary, energy and financial sectors.With the prospect of higher interest rates on the cards, will we continue to see the rotation continue in 2022, or is it a case of déjà vu all over again? After all, we have been here before; the current market sentiment is very reminiscent to the start of 2021. The tech-heavyNasdaq Composite Indexfell by as much as 11% between mid-February and the first week of March last year. But technology stocks quickly bounced back, and led the index 24% higher by end the year.If history is to repeat itself, then this could be yet another buying opportunity for investors, particularly for those tech names that have strong fundamentals and compelling growth outlooks.Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT)could be one such company, for five main reasons that I'll describe below.Consistent OutperformerMicrosoft's track record of growth over the past three and a half decades is very impressive. If you'd invested $1,000 in the company from its IPO in 1986, those shares would now be worth more than $4 million today.Although much of the gains occurred before the new millennium, the pace of growth has re-accelerated in recent years, particularly since Satya Nadella came to the helm. In just under eight years since he was made CEO on February 4, 2014, the company's share price has gained more than 700%.The share price performance reflected an acceleration in revenue and earnings growth for Microsoft. By 2020/1, its annualized 5-year revenue growth had risen to 13%, while EPS climbed by a compound annual growth rate of 25% over the same period.Analysts expect full-year revenues in 2021/2 to increase by 17% to $196.50 billion, with earnings per share up 15% to $9.22. Looking further ahead, revenues are expected to grow by about 14% over each of the next two years. EPS is expected to climb by 14% to $10.54 in 2022/3, with a further increase of 18% to $12.42 per share penciled in for 2023/4.Actual growth could prove to be even higher, considering that the company has regularly exceeded analysts' estimates on both revenues and earnings. According to data from Seeking Alpha, the average earnings surprise for the past 12 quarters is 11.9%. Meanwhile, quarterly revenues exceeded analysts' estimates by 3.3% over the same period.Furthermore, despite the volatility in its share price, the consensus analysts' revenue and earnings revision trends are perspicuously positive. As such, the near- to medium-term outlook for growth appears to be intact.Cloud MomentumThe momentum in its cloud and enterprise-facing businesses will likely see Microsoft achieve robust growth in the years ahead, in spite of recent concerns that the post-pandemic environment could bring slower growth in 2022. Although there are some fears that businesses that have already 'brought forward' their technology spending plans in the last two years may begin to moderate their spend, this would likely only have a temporary impact.Long term fundamentals are backed up by the secular trends for digitization and increased cloud adoption. These trends are visible across almost every industry, in both the private and public sectors. And as they are driven by the desire to deliver productivity growth, a let-up in demand, if any, could prove to be short lasting.What's more, Microsoft is well placed to capture more of this growing market, due to its strong market position, Azure's differentiated Cloud architecture and legacy strengths in the OEM and productivity software markets, which give it network and spillover benefits.The company also continues to benefit from increased adoption of its cloud-based Office 365 offering. Office Commercial products and cloud services revenue grew by 13% in the past year, while the same for the consumer users saw an increase of 10%.The shift towards cloud-based services, or Software as a Service (SaaS), is viewed by analysts as an up-sell of the company's legacy perpetual-license software. This is because the shift to a subscription-based software licensing and delivery model increases the lifetime value of each customer. And following the success of this strategy, Microsoft is looking to do something similar with its Windows operating system, following the launch of Windows 365in July last year.Diversified Revenue SourcesFor all the talk of Microsoft's cloud business, it's easy to forget about the company's other revenue sources and just how diversified the group's revenue sources actually are.Diversification prevents the group from concentrating too much risk on a single segment of the market or a single product, enabling it to better cope with exogenous supply and demand shocks, such as the pandemic, supply disruptions or changes in market trends.Annual revenue by productAnd as we can see, the group delivered broad-based growth in the year to June 30, 2021, as each reported segment reported an increase in revenues.Wide MoatMicrosoft has a wide economic moat, which is underpinned by its entrenched market position in a range of services. In an industry where network effects are enormous and where switching imposes big costs on consumers and businesses, the company benefits from long term competitive advantages that protect its market share.There are spillover benefits from the company's leadership in the markets for computer operating systems with Windows, productivity software via Microsoft Office suite and elsewhere. These services have natural synergies with each other and enable the company to create a seamless experience, which can drive a more engaged and loyal customer base.On the cost side, its growing size brings with it economies of scale, as the bigger the business becomes, the more it can spread developmental and operational expenditures over a larger service base. Reflecting this, operating margins have been trending strongly upwards in the last 5 years - EBIT margins rose from 32.5% to 44.1% currently.Growing Free Cash FlowMicrosoft's reliable free cash flows fund growing dividend payments and stock buybacks. The quarterly dividend has increased 44% over the last five years to a current quarterly payment of $0.56 per share.The company generated more than $60 billion in free cash flow over the past 12 months, and management has returned substantially most of it to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. Last year, Microsoft spent a total of $43 billion in shareholder distributions. This included nearly $17 billion in dividends, with the current payout ratio having fallen to just below 25% - a 10-year low.What's more, Microsoft's balance sheet is in good order. Cash and short term investments ended 2021 at more than $130 billion. This dwarfed financial debts of just over $53 billion, and should leave it with more than enough financial firepower to invest in new products and fund mid-sized M&A opportunities without the need to reduce shareholder payouts in the medium term.RisksDespite its strengths, there are risks involved too.Chip ShortagesThe supply shortage of integrated circuits will likely drag into 2022, and possibly into 2023 too. This could delay the availability of its Surface and Xbox devices, as well as impact OEM sales at a time when it is rolling out Windows 11, its latest version of the Windows operating system.That said, analysts expect the supply imbalance to ease by the middle of the year amid loosening production constraints, although prices could remain elevate for longer due to stickiness.Pandemic-Driven DemandThe receding threat of the pandemic is causing consumers to spend less time at home and pushing employees back to the office. Recent pandemic-driven demand could ease in 2022, meaning the growth in the personal computer and gaming markets over the past two years could prove to be only temporary.Competition and Market TrendsWhile long term trends are positive, there may be turbulence ahead. The cloud services market is fragmented, and parts of the business are vulnerable to competition and market trends.Although Microsoft has a leading market share in many markets, competition in the industry is fierce. In the enterprise market, it has many competitors, including Amazon Web Services (AWS), Google Cloud, Oracle Cloud, IBM and Salesforce.Competition extends to the poaching of talent. Microsoft has reportedly lost around 100 employees working on augmented reality projects over the past year, with a significant portion heading to Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook), as the two increasingly compete for the metaverse.Elsewhere, declining PC trends could hurt the company in the long run, limiting future Windows OEM sales and potentially weakening its entrenched market position. Despite serious efforts, Microsoft has failed to gain a foothold in the mobile operating system market. Although it has had some success in offering its cloud-based solutions on rival Android and iOS platforms, this strategy has vulnerabilities.High Valuation MultiplesMicrosoft's high valuation multiples leave little room for disappointment. Its price-to-earnings ratio of 34.5 is some way above its 10-year median of 26.0.Although the high PE multiple reflects the improved perception of the company's growth outlook in recent years, particularly the bullish optimism for its cloud growth, valuations have also benefited from the flow of money into the technology sector. Therefore, a rotation out of highly valued tech stocks could hurt Microsoft.But Microsoft's valuation premium over other tech names, such as Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)and Meta Platforms(NASDAQ:FB), reflects its perceived lower regulatory risk. By contrast, increased regulatory scrutiny over important data and privacy issues, as well as long-expected antitrust cases against Google in both the US and Europe, have brought the specter of big fines, increased compliance costs and competition risks for its rivals.Bottom LineMicrosoft does not come cheap, but valuations do reflect the company's strong fundamentals and its compelling growth opportunities.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":697118433,"gmtCreate":1642351904526,"gmtModify":1642351904870,"author":{"id":"3582013951378523","authorId":"3582013951378523","authorIdStr":"3582013951378523","name":"sh99","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95985dfcd15851145b63b9903fdb5bfc","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"like","listText":"like","text":"like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/697118433","repostId":1188801416,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7183790,"gmtCreate":1642351909245,"gmtModify":1642351909273,"authorId":3582013951378523,"author":{"id":3582013951378523,"authorId":3582013951378523,"name":"sh99","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95985dfcd15851145b63b9903fdb5bfc","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":697118433,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"uk","text":"uk","html":"uk"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":697190502,"gmtCreate":1642335871014,"gmtModify":1642335871124,"author":{"id":"3585470994468822","authorId":"3585470994468822","authorIdStr":"3585470994468822","name":"InvisibleP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"What is the good price to enter?&nbsp;","listText":"What is the good price to enter?&nbsp;","text":"What is the good price to enter?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/697190502","repostId":1188801416,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7183789,"gmtCreate":1642351901769,"gmtModify":1642351901875,"authorId":3582013951378523,"author":{"id":3582013951378523,"authorId":3582013951378523,"name":"sh99","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95985dfcd15851145b63b9903fdb5bfc","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":697190502,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"j","text":"j","html":"j"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":32,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.26.2","shortVersion":"4.26.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1188801416"}