互联网用户增长见顶？王兴：我不认输

36氪2021-05-29

在主流互联网巨头进入新的投入期后，我们需要一分为二的看待美团这份一季报。 "增收不增利"的确成了2021年互联网巨头财报的主旋律，前有阿里，后有京东、拼多多，当然美团也没逃过。 5月28日港股盘后，美团发布2021年一季度财报，营收同比大增120.9%至370亿元同时，Non-GAAP下经调整净亏损也达到了38.92亿元，双双超出分析师预期。考虑市场对于美团加码社区团购的亏损忍受度，美团本季度...

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精彩评论

健安_1832
2021-05-30
健安_1832
认输问题更大
Fengjie
2021-05-29
Fengjie
赞
第N次大变革大分流
2021-05-29
第N次大变革大分流
王兴会不会再次诗性灵感大发？
- 紫心旋:
  好奇
HANDM
2021-05-29
HANDM
大了问题就来了
- Jerry6666:
  ok
- 第N次大变革大分流:
  而且还一气之下引用了一首诗
- zh2021:
  [强]

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Wang Xing: I don't throw in the 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   来源：中信证券\n从去年开始，受疫情影响，美团就已经在发力以往并不亲睐外卖业务、但在消费着心中有着极高地位的大KA商家。在实行新的费率改革后，预期美团未来佣金率提升的空间并不明显，而通过优化规模不经济的远距离低客单订单，转而把握品牌餐饮的高客单和高广告预算，将成为接下来美团业务的重点。\n到店酒旅的业务表现同样惊艳。一季度实现收入65.8亿，同比提升112.7%，经营溢利更是达到27.8亿，净利润率近42%，与去年四季度旺季的28亿相差无几。尽管就地过年一定程度上影响了酒店业务的发挥，但财报显示在一季度美团高端酒店夜间订单量依然突破一亿门槛。\n近66亿的到店酒旅收入中，佣金和在线营销收入占比各一半，其中佣金收入同比暴增172%，就地过年带来的积极效应明显。此外，到店广告（到店综合、到店餐饮等）收入增长也达到了76%，两年收入的复合增长则超过30%。\n\n美团各业务类型收入表现\n新业务成效明显\n80亿亏损，81.6%的亏损率，这就是本季度美团在新业务上交出的答卷。尽管亏损超出预期，但社区团购等新业务给美团带来的积极效应正在展现。\n尤其是在新增活跃用户数上，单季度净增近5900万就是例证。本季度美团在销售和营销上的开支是72.06亿，同比飙涨125%，折算下来，单个用户的获客成本在122元左右，相对比拼多多一季度的获客成本则超过了181元。\n与多多买菜采取平台模式一样，美团优选的收入同样来自于交易佣金。\n36氪采访多个美团优选的供应商和一线调研机构得出结论，美团优选的佣金大约10%，目前美团优选后台采取竞价供货，供货商普遍按照15%-17%加价率供货给平台。比如某个单品的供货价是100，但美团优选的零售价会在115-117，理论上美团优选有15%左右的佣金率，但因为补贴等因素，目前整体佣金大概在10%左右。\n另据36氪从知情人士处获悉，一季度美团优选的日均单量大约1800-2000万，件均格7元左右，对应的GMV大约是120亿，按照10%的佣金率，对应12亿营收。也就是说一季度近100亿的营收中，其实美团优选贡献的收入并不多，而据财报披露，新业务一季度总的佣金收入为18.2亿。\n\n美团各类型收入细分\n此前，36氪曾报道了各家社区团购平台的2021年的GMV目标，但目前进展均不顺利。按照美团优选2000亿的GMV目标，如果保持7块客单价不变，其在四季度的单量要冲刺到7000万单左右才有可能实现，而36氪从相关知情人士处得知，目前美团优选的单量也只能维持在2500万单上下，多多买菜则达不到2500万单。\n为了冲刺GMV，多多买菜在近期推出了类似于美菜的新业务，为小B商家提供大规格、高客单的商品，供应链则主要来自于拼多多主站，这被视为急功近利的做法，而其消极影响也在展现。据了解在广东部分地区，因为大规格、超重产品比例过多，网格仓爆仓现象严重，并出现了履约问题，不过目前美团优选尚没有推出类似的举措。\n在财报会上，美团CEO王兴透露，5900万的新增活跃用户中，有一半是社区团购贡献的，而美团优选的目标则是在未来几年为美团带来3-4亿新增用户。\n按照本季度5900万的新增用户看，这一目标似乎不难实现，但考虑补贴过来的用户使用粘性，这个背后考验的不仅仅是钱的问题，对供应链的把控，组织管理的要求都相当重要。据36氪了解，在部分社区团购巨头内部，从外部挖来的“兴盛、十荟团帮”和公司内部团队，已经在管理上出现风格差异，导致业务摩擦越来越重。\n总结下来，美团能在本季度实现营收大爆发，八个字“败也疫情，成也疫情”，但新业务的亏损也的确超过预期。综合反垄断的处罚结果还没落地以及社保阴云，短期内美团股价或许仍将承压，但从长期逻辑看，如果美团拿下社区团购一战，其护城河或许将很难被攻破。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":137169229,"gmtCreate":1622330129661,"gmtModify":1634102357801,"author":{"id":"3553346853986978","authorId":"3553346853986978","name":"健安_1832","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a310972d59b708bb82abef5c003c84e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3553346853986978","authorIdStr":"3553346853986978"},"htmlText":"认输问题更大","listText":"认输问题更大","text":"认输问题更大","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137169229","repostId":1188674499,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":137386199,"gmtCreate":1622300243911,"gmtModify":1634102439352,"author":{"id":"3564909256585570","authorId":"3564909256585570","name":"Fengjie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45987ca4f2ac62a210c20544200c49f9","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3564909256585570","authorIdStr":"3564909256585570"},"htmlText":"赞","listText":"赞","text":"赞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137386199","repostId":1188674499,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":134704595,"gmtCreate":1622257376117,"gmtModify":1634102713254,"author":{"id":"3564479083780631","authorId":"3564479083780631","name":"第N次大变革大分流","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38a0f9f620ecb0107deca26ff5e51658","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3564479083780631","authorIdStr":"3564479083780631"},"htmlText":"王兴会不会再次诗性灵感大发？","listText":"王兴会不会再次诗性灵感大发？","text":"王兴会不会再次诗性灵感大发？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134704595","repostId":1188674499,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4494091,"gmtCreate":1622259555025,"gmtModify":1635395725504,"authorId":3568697639951079,"author":{"id":3568697639951079,"idStr":"3568697639951079","authorId":3568697639951079,"name":"紫心旋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c848cb49b3c10f214ad46546a55a9fb9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":134704595,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"好奇","text":"好奇","html":"好奇"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":134471671,"gmtCreate":1622256361193,"gmtModify":1631889656351,"author":{"id":"3556183628979008","authorId":"3556183628979008","name":"HANDM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/804eaf3f8b34a656fad28a5b156ba4a0","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3556183628979008","authorIdStr":"3556183628979008"},"htmlText":"大了问题就来了","listText":"大了问题就来了","text":"大了问题就来了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134471671","repostId":1188674499,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4498370,"gmtCreate":1622295573957,"gmtModify":1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