“4%的通胀魔咒”对市场冲击有多大？

金十数据2021-05-20

上周美国4月季调后CPI飙升至4.2%，其后通胀敏感型资产的价格便开始波动：美债收益率上升，股价（特别是成长型股票）走低。一直以来，4%的通胀率是一条红线。自1957年有标普500指数以来，美国的通货膨胀率已经九次超过4%，股价在三个月后下跌的情况出现了八次。还有一次是发生在2005年，当时通胀率不久又下降到4%以下，所以没有给市场带来过多的恐慌。这次会不会也是一样？通胀走高到一定程度之后，...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

戴熹
2021-05-21
戴熹
狂跌
- 金虎妞:
  同感.
一路向北666
2021-05-20
一路向北666
任务任务
山那边的英英子
2021-05-20
山那边的英英子
A
- 山那边的英英子:
  Z
- 山那边的英英子:
  S

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188118725?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fb7a5c0d6c9982ba947275f031d3f02","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2021-05-20 23:00","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1188118725","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"“4%的通胀魔咒”对市场冲击有多大？","media":"金十数据","content":"<div>\n<p>上周美国4月季调后CPI飙升至4.2%，其后通胀敏感型资产的价格便开始波动：美债收益率上升，股价（特别是成长型股票）走低。\n一直以来，4%的通胀率是一条红线。自1957年有标普500指数以来，美国的通货膨胀率已经九次超过4%，股价在三个月后下跌的情况出现了八次。还有一次是发生在2005年，当时通胀率不久又下降到4%以下，所以没有给市场带来过多的恐慌。\n这次会不会也是一样？通胀走高到一定程度之后，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/74814\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"jssj","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“4%的通胀魔咒”对市场冲击有多大？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“4%的通胀魔咒”对市场冲击有多大？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-20 23:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/74814><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>上周美国4月季调后CPI飙升至4.2%，其后通胀敏感型资产的价格便开始波动：美债收益率上升，股价（特别是成长型股票）走低。\n一直以来，4%的通胀率是一条红线。自1957年有标普500指数以来，美国的通货膨胀率已经九次超过4%，股价在三个月后下跌的情况出现了八次。还有一次是发生在2005年，当时通胀率不久又下降到4%以下，所以没有给市场带来过多的恐慌。\n这次会不会也是一样？通胀走高到一定程度之后，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/74814\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":null,"symbol_name":null,"start_time":0,"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/74814","article_id":"1188118725","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fb7a5c0d6c9982ba947275f031d3f02"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188118725","pubTimestamp":1621522844,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"jssj","name":"金十数据"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"上周美国4月季调后CPI飙升至4.2%，其后通胀敏感型资产的价格便开始波动：美债收益率上升，股价（特别是成长型股票）走低。\n一直以来，4%的通胀率是一条红线。自1957年有标普500指数以来，美国的通","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"jin10.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{},"translate_title":"How big is the impact of the \"4% inflation curse\" on the market?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f682131134d4f4e03e943ecab8afeb48","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"上周美国4月季调后CPI飙升至4.2%，其后通胀敏感型资产的价格便开始波动：美债收益率上升，股价（特别是成长型股票）走低。\n一直以来，4%的通胀率是一条红线。自1957年有标普500指数以来，美国的通货膨胀率已经九次超过4%，股价在三个月后下跌的情况出现了八次。还有一次是发生在2005年，当时通胀率不久又下降到4%以下，所以没有给市场带来过多的恐慌。\n这次会不会也是一样？通胀走高到一定程度之后，美股会下跌？\n跟欧尼尔提出的“杯柄形态”或者企图通过占星来预测价格走势一样，这个4%的指标听起来同样很“玄学”。但是它的提出不仅仅只是从历史中总结出来的规律，还是可以由逻辑推导出来的。\n事实上，当通胀水平较低时，通胀率的提高对于股市来说是好事。通胀率从1%提高到2%意味着经济通缩的风险正在减少。同时，市场也会对经济运行情况特别敏感，因为此时经济一般较为疲软。当经济开始变好时，通货膨胀率的提高会助推股价，美联储也会非常乐意看到它宽松的货币政策正在起作用。\n然而，当通胀率进一步升高时，股票的实际收益就会减少。当通胀率涨至4%时，市场可能会上演这样罕见的一幕——不仅债市，股市也会一起走低。因为这时候市场关注的焦点已经变成了高通胀带来的潜在风险，而不是经济形势变好所带来的股市收益。\n金十早些时候的报道也指出，上周市场已经出现了债市和股市同涨跌的情景：股价和债券收益率朝着相反的方向变动。从过去100天两者的相关系数可以看到，债券收益率和股价之间的相关系数已经跌至了15年来的最低点。\n因此，我们可能已经进入第二阶段，过高的通货膨胀率对于现在的股市和债市来说都是一个利空。若市场对通胀的担忧减少，美国国债收益率会下降，同时股价上升。\n接下来要看美联储造化了。\n投资者需要思考的三个问题是：通胀是否会持续，美联储是否会考虑采取相应行动，以及股价是否已经到达高位。\n关于第一点，如果只是经济重启后的供不应求导致的物价暂时飙升，那么通胀带来的负面影响不会太大。从历史数据可以看到，1984年和2006年通胀率回落至4%以下时，股市又收复了全部失地。\n至于第二点，如果美联储决定不干预，那么即使通货膨胀继续上升，股市也可能在一段时间内继续走高。这种情况在1968年也确实发生过，在通货膨胀率超过4%后，债券收益率还在下降，因此繁荣持续了6个月之久。\n由此可见，在最好情况时，美股或许还能“苟且”继续上涨。然而，我们别忘了第三点——目前美股估值处于高位。以史为例，当这种情况发生时，投资者要付出的代价是惨痛的。\n当上世纪60年代的繁荣结束，债券收益率开始上升时，标普500指数在接下来的18个月里跌幅超30%；\n\n 1987年，在通货膨胀率超过4%后不久，股市涨至顶点后以崩盘告终；2007年次贷危机时，泡沫刚开始出现在商品、房地产和债市中，但标普指数开始下跌的同时，通货膨胀率超过了4%，随后金融危机便爆发了，股市的巨大泡沫破裂。\n\n如今股价似乎又被高估了。这是不是意味着，无论如何美股都无法避过一劫？\n目前，美股主要由大型科技股和其他成长型股主导，它们对债券收益率非常敏感，因此如果债券收益率迅速上升，它们的股价很可能进一步下跌。当通胀上升时，低价股往往表现更好，尽管其绝对价值不一定会上升。而更糟的情况时，如果美联储决心收紧流动性来打压通货膨胀，那么低价股将会受到打击。\n届时“4%的通胀魔咒”或将如期上演。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":130289819,"gmtCreate":1621552583731,"gmtModify":1634188266508,"author":{"id":"3568941535414744","authorId":"3568941535414744","name":"戴熹","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8256c873b5d3b04da77575334b2bb79c","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"狂跌","listText":"狂跌","text":"狂跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/130289819","repostId":1188118725,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4396781,"gmtCreate":1621559249579,"gmtModify":1635404070077,"authorId":3556795695113740,"author":{"id":3556795695113740,"authorId":3556795695113740,"name":"金虎妞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a386ba301cd5a50be02be7f7f672afc8","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":130289819,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"同感.","text":"同感.","html":"同感."}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":130861910,"gmtCreate":1621524118130,"gmtModify":1631888187300,"author":{"id":"3581848121308128","authorId":"3581848121308128","name":"一路向北666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8e4f3400b2762d08a2a2e114cdcc8b9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"任务任务","listText":"任务任务","text":"任务任务","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/130861910","repostId":1188118725,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":130818141,"gmtCreate":1621522893383,"gmtModify":1634188407728,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"A","listText":"A","text":"A","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/130818141","repostId":1188118725,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4392388,"gmtCreate":1621522901465,"gmtModify":1635404428302,"authorId":3581939067431343,"author":{"id":3581939067431343,"authorId":3581939067431343,"name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":130818141,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Z","text":"Z","html":"Z"},{"id":4392391,"gmtCreate":1621522909400,"gmtModify":1635404428084,"authorId":3581939067431343,"author":{"id":3581939067431343,"authorId":3581939067431343,"name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":130818141,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"S","text":"S","html":"S"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":16,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.1","shortVersion":"4.25.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1188118725"}