“华尔街最悲观的分析师”投降了？大摩上调标普目标点位

华尔街见闻2021-08-17

大摩将标普500年底预测值从3900点上调至4000点，较目前点位仍有10%下跌空间。分析师Michael Wilson表示，仍对股票价格回报持谨慎态度。在美股强劲的财报面前，“华尔街最悲观的分析师”也不得不上调了标普的目标点位和盈利预期。周一，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席股票策略师Michael Wilson在报告中写道：“由于又一个异常强劲的财报季，我们根据市场情况对...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

Mei9899
2021-08-17
Mei9899
[微笑]
juanjuanjuan
2021-08-17
juanjuanjuan
[呆住]
- juanjuanjuan:
  [呆住]
神佛护佑
2021-08-17
神佛护佑
是的
神佛护佑
2021-08-17
神佛护佑
小心使得万年船

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186728022?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2488184ce4815610e2426c10250da75","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2021-08-17 14:11","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1186728022","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"“华尔街最悲观的分析师”投降了？大摩上调标普目标点位","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>大摩将标普500年底预测值从3900点上调至4000点，较目前点位仍有10%下跌空间。分析师Michael Wilson表示，仍对股票价格回报持谨慎态度。\n\n在美股强劲的财报面前，“华尔街最悲观的分析师”也不得不上调了标普的目标点位和盈利预期。\n周一，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席股票策略师Michael Wilson在报告中写道：“由于又一个异常强劲的财报季，我们根据市场情况对...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“华尔街最悲观的分析师”投降了？大摩上调标普目标点位</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“华尔街最悲观的分析师”投降了？大摩上调标普目标点位\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-08-17 14:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>大摩将标普500年底预测值从3900点上调至4000点，较目前点位仍有10%下跌空间。分析师Michael Wilson表示，仍对股票价格回报持谨慎态度。\n\n在美股强劲的财报面前，“华尔街最悲观的分析师”也不得不上调了标普的目标点位和盈利预期。\n周一，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席股票策略师Michael Wilson在报告中写道：“由于又一个异常强劲的财报季，我们根据市场情况对...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":null,"article_id":"1186728022","we_media_id":"1084101182","thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2488184ce4815610e2426c10250da75"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186728022","pubTimestamp":1629180671,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"华尔街见闻","introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"summary":"大摩将标普500年底预测值从3900点上调至4000点，较目前点位仍有10%下跌空间。分析师Michael Wilson表示，仍对股票价格回报持谨慎态度。\n\n在美股强劲的财报面前，“华尔街最悲观的分析","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"translate_title":"\"Wall Street's most pessimistic analyst\" surrendered? Morgan Stanley raised the target point of S&P","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58c00c3edfc87f8cb6694ec5194fef6b","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9},"content_text":"大摩将标普500年底预测值从3900点上调至4000点，较目前点位仍有10%下跌空间。分析师Michael Wilson表示，仍对股票价格回报持谨慎态度。\n\n在美股强劲的财报面前，“华尔街最悲观的分析师”也不得不上调了标普的目标点位和盈利预期。\n周一，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席股票策略师Michael Wilson在报告中写道：“由于又一个异常强劲的财报季，我们根据市场情况对预测值作出了调整，并提高了收益预期，尽管我们的领先指标显示，收益修正的上行势头停滞不前。”\n在基准预测中，摩根士丹利将标普500指数的年底预测值从3900点上调至4000点，2022年6月的预测值保持在4225点不变。目标整体上没有太大的变化，出于对利率上升和股票风险溢价稳定的考虑，该行降低了目标市盈率。\n截至周一收盘，标普500报4479点。这意味着即便大摩上调了目标值，该行预计截至年底，标普仍有10%的下跌空间。\n\n而就在上个月底，Wilson曾警告称，美股或面临“重大调整风险”，各类资产的“轮动调整”可能会导致市场下跌至多20%。在浓厚的看多氛围中，Wilson也因此获得了“华尔街最悲观分析师”的称号。\n上调盈利预期，下调市盈率预期\n大摩同时调整了对美股盈利的预期。\n具体来看，大摩将2021年的美股每股盈利从189美元上调至205美元，高于目前的市场共识201美元。大摩解释称，这一变化主要由上半年优异的业绩推动的，强劲的业绩很大程度上是得益于营收增长和稳定的利润率。\n大摩将2022年的每股盈利预期从200美元上调至209美元，低于共识预期219美元。该行称，这个预测值里考虑到了加税可能带来的影响，而目前的共识预期里并没有考虑到这一点。\n\n在上调目标点位和盈利预期的同时，大摩下调了标普500的市盈率预期，从20倍下调至19倍：\n\n 标普指数今年的动态市盈率峰值在1月份约为22.7倍，2021年第一季度平均为22倍，2021年第二季度平均为21.6倍，年初至今平均为21.2倍。我们的估值框架依赖于对两个组成部分的预测——10年期国债收益率和股票风险溢价。根据我们的机构预测，假设美国10年期收益率在年底达到1.8%，在2022年中达到2%，随着股票风险溢价已从今年早些时候令人兴奋的低点恢复正常，股票市盈率已经开始下降。\n \n\n尽管微调了目标价，Wilson依然表示，他“仍对指数水平上的股票价格回报持谨慎态度”。\nWilson警告称， 目前经纪交易商保证金余额相对于信贷余额的水平已经超过前期高点，“历史是清楚的,一旦这个杠杆比率开始转向，会很快影响到价格。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":839740101,"gmtCreate":1629184843403,"gmtModify":1631889791140,"author":{"id":"4091658292326830","authorId":"4091658292326830","name":"Mei9899","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9a5697777c29403e8d3d4a2d58eadf","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4091658292326830","authorIdStr":"4091658292326830"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839740101","repostId":1186728022,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":839764317,"gmtCreate":1629183017339,"gmtModify":1633686746863,"author":{"id":"3583234199071042","authorId":"3583234199071042","name":"juanjuanjuan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583234199071042","authorIdStr":"3583234199071042"},"htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839764317","repostId":1186728022,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5553464,"gmtCreate":1629183028799,"gmtModify":1635149597394,"authorId":3583234199071042,"author":{"id":3583234199071042,"idStr":"3583234199071042","authorId":3583234199071042,"name":"juanjuanjuan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":839764317,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[呆住]","text":"[呆住]","html":"[呆住]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":839762100,"gmtCreate":1629182858200,"gmtModify":1631891967395,"author":{"id":"3576321023701513","authorId":"3576321023701513","name":"神佛护佑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e570de638069b875adf243bba438b98a","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576321023701513","authorIdStr":"3576321023701513"},"htmlText":"是的","listText":"是的","text":"是的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839762100","repostId":1186728022,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":839766619,"gmtCreate":1629182819031,"gmtModify":1631891967404,"author":{"id":"3576321023701513","authorId":"3576321023701513","name":"神佛护佑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e570de638069b875adf243bba438b98a","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576321023701513","authorIdStr":"3576321023701513"},"htmlText":"小心使得万年船","listText":"小心使得万年船","text":"小心使得万年船","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839766619","repostId":1186728022,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":12,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1186728022"}