Roku stock forecast: Where next for the streaming pioneer?

Capital.com2022-01-05

Roku is one of the pioneers of streaming television – and it continues to benefit from this increasingly popular way to watch programmes.The San Jose, California-based company, which celebrates its ...

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2022-01-05
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In this analysis, we take a look at the company’s recent results and seek Roku stock price predictions from equity market experts.Roku stock analysis: Share price performanceRoku, which is listed on NASDAQ under the symbol ‘ROKU’, was founded in October 2002 and went public on 28 September 2017.The company hasn’t declared or paid cash dividends on its common stock and doesn’t anticipate any cash dividends for the foreseeable future.At the time of Roku’s initial public offering (IPO), its stock price was $14 per share. Since then, it has risen 1,530% to $228.20 by the market close on 31 December 2021.It had a market capitalisation of $31.13bn, according to calculations at the start of 2022 by Companiesmarketcap.com.What has been Roku’s historical stock price? Roku stock has increased 68% over the past two years – from $135.99 at the start of 2020 – as it benefitted from increased potential viewers during the Covid-19 lockdowns.However, it’s had a tougher time more recently with the stock price down more than 30% from the start of January to the end of December 2021. It also fell 50% in the last six months of the year.Roku stock news: The company’s latest resultsRoku recently revealed results for the third quarter ending 30 September 2021 that showed a 23% year-over-year growth of active accounts to 56.4 million.This represented a net increase of 1.3 million active accounts from the second quarter of the year, while streaming hours were up 0.7 billion hours to 18 billion in the period.Roku also announced that total net revenue grew 51% year-over-year to $680m, while platform revenue increased 82%, year-over-year, to $583m.The company’s gross profit came in at $364m, which represented a 69% year-over-year rise, while the average revenue per user (ARPU) surpassed the milestone of $40 on a trailing 12-month basis.In its letter to shareholders,Roku stated: “As the global shift to TV streaming continues, our performance demonstrates the strength of our business fundamentals and the momentum of our platform monetisation.”The letter also noted the company was making “significant progress” with traditional TV advertisers, while also expanding its total addressable market to digital-first advertisers.“Despite the ongoing headwinds created by the global supply chain disruptions, Roku remains well positioned as a result of our scale, brand, technology, and relentless focus on the TV streaming experience,” it added.Roku stock value: Analysts’ viewAccording to Morningstar, Roku is the leading streaming platform in the US by hours watched, with under 59 billion hours of content streamed in 2020.“The firm’s eponymous operating system is used not only in Roku’s own hardware but in co-branded TVs and soundbars from manufacturers like TCL, Onn, and Hisense,” it stated. “Roku generates revenue from advertising, distribution fees, hardware sales, OS licensing, and subscription sales.”Neil Macker, an analyst at Morningstar, branded the third quarter results as “decent”, and pointed out the company was continuing to benefit from accounts added during the Covid-19 pandemic.However, he highlighted some issues. “Customer growth remains muted due in part to supply chain issues,” he wrote. “We are maintaining our $195 fair value estimate and we view the shares as materially overvalued, pricing in unrealistic expectations for growth in a very competitive market.”Roku stock projection: Company’s guidanceSo, what is the management’s expectation for Roku? In its shareholder letter, the company insisted its business fundamentals remained strong but acknowledged challenges created by global supply chain issues were likely to continue.“These headwinds may have a broad impact on the holiday season in terms of consumer confidence, product pricing and availability, and advertising spend levels,” it stated.While the pandemic has had different impacts on the various parts of its business, Roku maintained that the secular shift to streaming remained intact.“Our fourth quarter outlook is for strong growth with total net revenue of $893m at the midpoint (up 37% year-over-year), and total gross profit of $385m (up 26% year-over-year),” it added.The company is also investing in headcount, product development, and sales and marketing as part of its bid to drive future growth.“We have a relentless focus on building the best TV streaming platform that benefits audiences, content publishers, and advertisers, and we remain well positioned for the long term,” it added.Roku stock forecast: Analyst sentiment and price targetRoku stock was a ‘buy’ based on the consensus views of 25 analysts compiled by MarketBeat as of 3 January 2022.The site pointed out that 21 of the analysts rated the stock as a ‘buy’, while two each had ‘hold’ and ‘sell’ recommendations.Their consensus 12-month Roku share price forecast was $395.73, which suggested a 73% upside over the $228.20 level, as at 31 December 2021.The highest projection was $550, while the lowest would represent a 17% fall to $190 over the coming year. The company has been rated by more than 15 analysts over the past 90 days.Roku stock was an “awesome long-term (one year) investment”, according to the algorithmic forecasting of WalletInvestor as of 3 January 2022.Its 12-month Roku stock price target was $363.60, which would represent a 59% premium over the $228.20 level, as at the close on 31 December 2021.The site believed shares could rise to as high as $495.45 by December 2023 and then up to $633.86 by December 2024. Its long term forecast for Roku stock showed it could reach $767.71 over the next three years to December 2025.According to WalletInvestor’s Roku stock 4-year forecast, meanwhile, the price could hit $876 by December 2026, which would represent a 284% over the $228.20 level.Roku stock price prediction: What do the experts say?Cory Carpenter, an analyst at JP Morgan, is positive on the company.“We believe Roku is well positioned as TV viewing increasingly shifts to streaming, with Roku’s platform benefitting from increased demand across SVOD services,” he wrote in a note.His bullish thesis is largely driven by what he believes to be Roku’s “significant advertising opportunity”, with streaming accounting for 50% of TV viewing time for 18-34 year olds in the US, but only an estimated 10-15% of TV ad budgets.He is also optimistic about recent problems.“We view the TV supply chain issues and pockets of ad spend weakness in certain supply-constrained verticals as transitory and certainly not unique to Roku,” he explained.Carpenter also pointed out the “secular shift of TV viewing and ad dollars to streaming” remains strong and in early days. He highlighted how Roku’s management had noted how streaming accounts for 42% of TV viewing time for US adults (18-49 years old) vs. only 22% of TV ad dollars.“We remain overweight but we are lowering our price target to $435 to reflect the near-term uncertainty,” he added. “VZIO remains our preferred name in Connected TV.”Roku might not be a global household name yet, but it’s got all the goods to make that happen over the next few years, according to Danni Hewson, financial analyst at AJ Bell.“The streaming company was one of those lockdown darlings that some investors lost faith in because of a slowing of content consumption as restrictions eased,” she told Capital.com.Hewson pointed out that revenues were up 51% in the third quarter, compared to a year earlier, and argued the advertising buy from cable TV companies shows they’ve got real faith in its outlook.“Crucially, it managed to strike a deal to keep young viewers happy with a multi-year agreement with Alphabet that keeps the YouTube app on the platform,” she said.Hewson also highlighted some recent negatives.“There have been supply issues which have impacted availability during the crucial Christmas shopping window, plus rising costs have been passed onto the consumer which is likely to have dented sales which won’t look good come fourth quarter results,” she said.So, how does Hewson see the outlook for 2022?“Like many growth stocks, the prospect of rate rises will make some investors wary but it’s self-titled channel is gaining in popularity, it’s working on a pretty decent roster of new content and unlikeNetflixit’s just started spreading tentacles into other countries,” she said.When looking for Roku stock predictions, it’s important to bear in mind that analysts’ forecasts and price targets for the ROKU stock can be wrong. Analysts’ projections are based on making fundamental and technical studies of the stock’s performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.It’s important to do your own research. Always remember that your decision to trade depends on your attitude to risk, your expertise in the market, the spread of your investment portfolio and how comfortable you feel about losing money. 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