General Motors Vs. Tesla: Which Stock Is The Better Value?

seekingalpha2021-07-27

Summary GM and TSLA are two very different companies, but both want to grow their EV presence massively. Management teams have highly ambitious goals, such as AV leadership (TSLA) and EV leadership (...

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精彩评论

MarkN
2021-07-28
MarkN
Tesla
KYHBKO
2021-07-27
KYHBKO
Tesla is more than a car company .. hard to have a reasonable comparison.
- KamenR:
  You’re right. It’s not a fair comparison.
AkitaAngel
2021-07-27
AkitaAngel
Ok
yksim
2021-07-27
yksim
Good sharing
74c5dd72
2021-07-27
74c5dd72
Pls like and comment
- Brendononon:
  ok
- Nemea:
  Comment done
74c5dd72
2021-07-27
74c5dd72
Pls like and comment
- ATJS:
  done

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Tesla: Which Stock Is The Better Value?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-27 22:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441547-general-motors-vs-tesla-stock-better-value><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nGM and TSLA are two very different companies, but both want to grow their EV presence massively.\nManagement teams have highly ambitious goals, such as AV leadership (TSLA) and EV leadership (...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441547-general-motors-vs-tesla-stock-better-value\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"GM","symbol_name":"通用汽车","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441547-general-motors-vs-tesla-stock-better-value","article_id":"1185029173","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185029173","pubTimestamp":1627395062,"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nGM and TSLA are two very different companies, but both want to grow their EV presence massi","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"translate_title":"通用汽车vs。特斯拉：哪只股票更有价值？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"GM":0.9,"TSLA":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nGM and TSLA are two very different companies, but both want to grow their EV presence massively.\nManagement teams have highly ambitious goals, such as AV leadership (TSLA) and EV leadership (GM). Whether these goals will be achieved is a different story, however.\nThe two companies could be attractive for different types of investors, but it may also make sense to stay on the sidelines here.\n\ngremlin/E+ via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nAuto companies are doing very well in the current environment, as strong demand for new cars and rising average sales prices will lead to strong profits in 2021. There are, however, vast differences between EV pure-plays such as Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), and legacy auto companies such as General Motors Company (GM). Even though GM has been moving into the EV direction in recent years, it is still primarily an ICE vehicle company, unlike Tesla, the current leader in the EV space. In this article, we will pitch these two companies against each other in order to find out what stock is more suitable for what type of investor.\nThe Auto Industry: Cyclical, But Having Good Times Right Now\nThere are industries that are very resilient versus all kinds of crises, such as software tech or healthcare, as their products are needed/required no matter what. The auto industry, on the other hand, is highly cyclical, as consumers only buy new cars when they have surplus liquidity and as long as they are not too worried about the future. On top of that, auto companies are also impacted to a significant degree by fluctuating prices for their end products and the commodities that are needed to build a vehicle.\n2020, not surprisingly, was a pretty bad year for most auto companies, as sales declined due to the impact of the pandemic. Tesla is somewhat of an outlier, as it did not report declining vehicle sales, thanks to ongoing market share gains for EVs in the US and globally. Nevertheless, even Tesla had a year of below-average growth in 2020. GM, for comparison, saw its revenue decline by around 10% in 2020.\nThanks to massive fiscal and monetary stimulus, coupled with an ongoing economic recovery, the near-term outlook for the whole industry is way better than what we saw in 2020, however. Consumers have also reduced their spending on things such as travel, dining out, etc. which results in more available cash that can be used for buying a vehicle. Vehicle prices, for used cars and new ones, have risen quite a lot in 2021 so far, and combined with higher deliveries, that should result in strong profit growth for the whole industry. Both Tesla and General Motors should benefit from recovering automobile markets in 2021.\nGM Stock Valuation\nGeneral Motors Company is, like most other legacy auto companies, trading at a pretty inexpensive valuation. This is the result of the cyclicality of the business, worries about the future, and generally relatively low growth rates for the industry. Based on current earnings per share estimates for 2021 and 2022, GM is valued at single-digit earnings multiples:\nData by YCharts\nGM trades for slightly less than 8x net profits, using 2021 estimates and 2022 estimates. The company is also looking very inexpensive on an enterprise value to EBITDA basis. The reading for this metric, which accounts for a company's debt, stands at just 6.7. Oftentimes, EV/EBITDA multiples of 10 and below are seen as inexpensive.\nWe can also look at the cash flows that GM generates in order to gauge its valuation.In 2020, which was a pretty weak year for the company, GM generated an operating cash flow of $7.5 billion, while free cash flow totaled $2.6 billion. GM thus trades at 11x 2020's operating cash flow, while the 2020 free cash flow multiple is 31. Since 2020 was a way weaker year compared to what we can expect from 2021 and 2022, it seems pretty clear that cash flows will rise considerably going forward.\nTSLA Stock Valuation\nTesla, unlike GM, is seen as a high-growth company deserving a significantly higher valuation than its legacy auto peers. This is, to some extent, certainly true -- Tesla has been delivering strong growth for years, and its business should continue to grow at a compelling pace going forward. Whether this does justify its current valuation is a different question, however.\nBased on current earnings per share estimates, Tesla is trading at the following earnings multiples:\nData by YCharts\nTesla, Inc. trades at 144x this year's expected EPS, and at 99x next year's net profits. Looking at the EV/EBITDA ratio, we see that the reading of 68 is very high as well -- almost exactly 10x as high as that of General Motors.\nIn 2020, Tesla has generated operating cash flows of $5.9 billion, while its free cash flow totaled $2.8 billion during the same time. This pencils out to an operating cash flow multiple of 105, while the free cash flow multiple is 220. In other words, Tesla trades at an extremely high valuation, both in absolute terms, and relative to how its auto peers are valued. It seems noteworthy that Tesla's free cash flow, in absolute terms, was slightlyhigherthan that of GM in 2020, which is certainly a feat for the EV pureplay. This is, however, partially the result of lower investments -- GM spent $5 billion on capital expenditures, while Tesla invested around $3 billion.\nIs GM A Better Stock Than Tesla?\nThe answer depends on what you are looking for in an investment. Tesla clearly is the company that delivers higher relative growth, as it will grow sales by somewhere between 60%-80% this year, which is absolutely out of reach for all legacy auto companies, including GM. Tesla, on the other hand, is trading at an extremely high valuation - despite selling only around 500,000 vehicles last year, the company is valued at $620 billion, which is more than GM, Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY), Stellantis (STLA), and Toyota (TM) combined - these sell around 30 million vehicles a year, however (combined).\nTesla is thus priced for massive growth right now, and its current market capitalization implies that the company will eventually sell 20 million, 30 million, or even more cars in a single year. There are bulls that believe that this will indeed come true, but I personally think that this is far from guaranteed. The legacy players, including GM, are ramping up their EV investments rapidly, and there is a large number of new EV startups, including companies such as NIO (NIO) or Lucid (LCID) that are looking to take market share from Tesla.\nI am convinced that Tesla will continue to see its sales rise in the coming years, but I doubt that Tesla will sell anything close to 10 million cars in 2025 -- one of the predictions by ARK(ARKK).\nTesla's shares are also pricing in a successful autonomous vehicle business, even though Tesla's FSD model is still stuck at Level 2 autonomous, even while some other companies have Level 4 tech on the road. An investment in Tesla is thus, I think, a bet on AV tech and massive business growth. This could pay off, as it cannot be ruled out that Tesla will eventually prevail with its AV approach. For now, however, it looks like others are ahead of the company, such as Alphabet's (GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)Waymo.\nGeneral Motors is much more of an old-school value investment right here - its growth prospects are less exciting, but its valuation is pretty inexpensive. GM plans to roll out around 30 electric vehicles by 2025, on top of that, the company also has a stated goal of becoming the leader in the North American EV space. Ambitious investments of around $27 billion through 2025 will certainly allow for the introduction of new, attractive, and capable EV models, but it still seems far from guaranteed that GM will sell more EVs than Ford and Tesla in North America in 2025. Even if that does not happen, however, that would not necessarily be a disaster. The good thing about a value stock like GM is that not too many things have to go right for the company to be a viable investment.\nWhereas Tesla is priced for massive growth, GM is currently priced as if it will eventually go out of business. If the company manages to stabilize its earnings around the current level or grow them by a couple of percentage points, that could be enough for very solid returns from the current price, thanks to a pretty low starting valuation. GM currently does not pay any dividends, but if the company gets back to paying out $0.38 per share per quarter, as it did before the pandemic, investors would get a solid yield of 2.8%.\nWhether you prefer GM or Tesla thus ultimately depends on your investment approach --do you prefer value or growth?-- and on your belief in Elon Musk. If you think he will be able to pull off AV in a big way, Tesla might be the better choice for you. But if you think that one should invest based on what we see today, and not based on what might happen in the future, GM might be the better choice for you among these two. There is, of course, also the option to invest in both, or in neither, as a case can be made for avoiding the automobile industry altogether, due to the aforementioned cyclicality and high competitive pressures.\nIs GM Or TSLA A Good Stock To Buy Now?\nTSLA has managed to grow quickly and the business is throwing off solid amounts of cash, which is certainly a feat. But the company is priced for perfection, and I doubt we will see Tesla sell 5, 10, or 20 million cars in the foreseeable future. I thus personally would avoid the stock due to its excessively high valuation, but others will disagree on that and see a lot of potential value in things like Tesla's AV endeavors.\nGM is looking way more reasonably valued in comparison, but its future is also far from certain. It remains to be seen whether the company will be successful with its massive EV investments -- so far, it isn't. Becoming the EV leader is an ambitious goal, but as everyone knows, announcing such a goal does not necessarily make it happen. GM looks like the better choice among the two from a risk-to-potential-reward perspective to me, but I do not find it extremely attractive at current prices, either. Whether any of these stocks is a good fit for your portfolio thus depends on your investment approach, and what you think the management teams at the two companies will be able to pull off in the coming years.\nI personally think that growing competition in the EV space, coming from all sides (legacy auto, EV pure-plays, and tech companies), could spell trouble for the whole industry, as competition could pressure margins for all players. I thus do not want to invest in either of these companies right here, even though they could be very successful if management teams can pull off what they are indicating they want to do.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":803340754,"gmtCreate":1627425058478,"gmtModify":1633765250694,"author":{"id":"3575420342405162","authorId":"3575420342405162","name":"MarkN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99ad375a87341ac6ee6e1e5a9fe435c3","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575420342405162","authorIdStr":"3575420342405162"},"htmlText":"Tesla","listText":"Tesla","text":"Tesla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803340754","repostId":1185029173,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":803074104,"gmtCreate":1627398881108,"gmtModify":1627398881108,"author":{"id":"3574381076586256","authorId":"3574381076586256","name":"KYHBKO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3bcbc7f9a10836dea92afc94bf39b5b","vip":2,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574381076586256","authorIdStr":"3574381076586256"},"htmlText":"Tesla is more than a car company .. hard to have a reasonable comparison.&nbsp;","listText":"Tesla is more than a car company .. hard to have a reasonable comparison.&nbsp;","text":"Tesla is more than a car company .. hard to have a reasonable comparison.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803074104","repostId":1185029173,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5350713,"gmtCreate":1627424179879,"gmtModify":1635220080222,"authorId":3583799729432788,"author":{"id":3583799729432788,"idStr":"3583799729432788","authorId":3583799729432788,"name":"KamenR","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db3db81fd6b762e83625b40b8566dec3","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":803074104,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"You’re right. It’s not a fair comparison.","text":"You’re right. It’s not a fair comparison.","html":"You’re right. It’s not a fair comparison."}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":803053168,"gmtCreate":1627397726454,"gmtModify":1633765376723,"author":{"id":"3581973645036019","authorId":"3581973645036019","name":"AkitaAngel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b53a133095959862eb9ceee3e17e4122","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581973645036019","authorIdStr":"3581973645036019"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803053168","repostId":1185029173,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":803080533,"gmtCreate":1627396405322,"gmtModify":1631892006641,"author":{"id":"3582014529806015","authorId":"3582014529806015","name":"yksim","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582014529806015","authorIdStr":"3582014529806015"},"htmlText":"Good sharing","listText":"Good sharing","text":"Good sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803080533","repostId":1185029173,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":803014003,"gmtCreate":1627396325302,"gmtModify":1633765394076,"author":{"id":"3581979721991802","authorId":"3581979721991802","name":"74c5dd72","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581979721991802","authorIdStr":"3581979721991802"},"htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803014003","repostId":1185029173,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5348403,"gmtCreate":1627397033016,"gmtModify":1635220209677,"authorId":3581810217233489,"author":{"id":3581810217233489,"idStr":"3581810217233489","authorId":3581810217233489,"name":"Brendononon","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":803014003,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>ok</u>","text":"<u>ok</u>","html":"<u>ok</u>"},{"id":5350845,"gmtCreate":1627425216590,"gmtModify":1635220068747,"authorId":3569066855191623,"author":{"id":3569066855191623,"idStr":"3569066855191623","authorId":3569066855191623,"name":"Nemea","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/480149424b6ae5ed798f2863caaa2bfd","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":803014003,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Comment done ","text":"Comment done ","html":"Comment done "}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":803015326,"gmtCreate":1627396312765,"gmtModify":1633765394539,"author":{"id":"3581979721991802","authorId":"3581979721991802","name":"74c5dd72","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581979721991802","authorIdStr":"3581979721991802"},"htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803015326","repostId":1185029173,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5348219,"gmtCreate":1627396375669,"gmtModify":1635220219671,"authorId":3581166585496611,"author":{"id":3581166585496611,"idStr":"3581166585496611","authorId":3581166585496611,"name":"ATJS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dedee9b81a49fe29e1cade245c54c758","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":803015326,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>done</u>","text":"<u>done</u>","html":"<u>done</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":74,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; 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