What If This Is The Economic End-Cycle

zerohedge2021-07-20

A few months ago, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist Michael Wilson, who also recently emerged as the biggest Wall Street bear warning that the "rolling corrections" in themarket presage a 10-...

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精彩评论

3f8d4c2
2021-07-21
3f8d4c2
Like
- cactuspot:
  done
- Singman:
  like too
xfeisno
2021-07-21
xfeisno
Maybe. Seems like the economy is separating even more from reality
- Andrew210782:
  Like
bobz
2021-07-21
bobz
nice
esim
2021-07-20
esim
Hi
- Thwa:
  A
- Thwa:
  G
- Thwa:
  a
- Thwa:
  D
- Thwa:
  D
YYLSG
2021-07-20
YYLSG
Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
- Pomi:
  Ok
chickbelly
2021-07-20
chickbelly
Wow

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After all, yesterday the NBER determined that the covid recession - at just 2 months - was the fastest on record (even as 14 million Americans are out of a job and still collect unemployment benefits) and we are already well into the mid cycle, if not approaching the end.\nAlso it is none other than Wilson's own employer Morgan Stanley, which has also said recently that this cycle will be \"hotter but shorter\" than usual.\n\nDoes it not stand to reason then, that the economic cycle is now so truncated - courtesy of $30 trillion in global stimulus - that we have blasted right through the midcycle phase and are now nearing the end?\nThat is the question Deutsche Bank's credit strategist Jim Reid asked overnight, when he described this recovery as \"undoubtedly the most unusual in history with many sectors of the economy already running ahead of their pre-recession trend\" even though several serviced based ones are still well behind though. More importantly, according to Reid and DB economists,the output and employment gap will likely close in the next couple of quarters which will be the quickest for both in observable economic history.\nReid then takes a look at where real GDP, nominal GDP, CPI, unemployment, retail sales, equities, household wealth, housing, treasuries and commodities are against all other recoveries for most variables goes back over 100 years. The chart below shows real GDP and as Reid explains, \"for most of these, this current post covid recovery is near the top\"making this recovery neck and neck with the fastest post-WWII expansion.\nAs Reid puts it, \"clearly this cycle saw a big drawdown due to the pandemic but so did the GFC and its notable that the post-GFC recovery was around the weakest at the same stage\" which begs the question: \"should this be seen as the start of a new cycle or a continuation of the last cycle after a period of covid related hibernation?The answer to this will give us clues as to how long this cycle lasts, future Fed activity, and on the inflationary consequences of the current strong rebound.\"","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":178202629,"gmtCreate":1626822171261,"gmtModify":1633770796336,"author":{"id":"3586333809132884","authorId":"3586333809132884","name":"3f8d4c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586333809132884","authorIdStr":"3586333809132884"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178202629","repostId":1184882386,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5276538,"gmtCreate":1626822269338,"gmtModify":1635225040369,"authorId":3581837078692589,"author":{"id":3581837078692589,"idStr":"3581837078692589","authorId":3581837078692589,"name":"cactuspot","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94c3a8704d6c2ece9fce2b814d8c533a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178202629,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>done</u>","text":"<u>done</u>","html":"<u>done</u>"},{"id":5277270,"gmtCreate":1626825279254,"gmtModify":1635224972648,"authorId":3575125836760247,"author":{"id":3575125836760247,"idStr":"3575125836760247","authorId":3575125836760247,"name":"Singman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d770feb757705f2d631d2d5f381ae07b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178202629,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"like <u>too</u>","text":"like <u>too</u>","html":"like <u>too</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178857229,"gmtCreate":1626800453461,"gmtModify":1633770891914,"author":{"id":"4089434840588950","authorId":"4089434840588950","name":"xfeisno","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b481244c3131486ab9735aac682e598","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4089434840588950","authorIdStr":"4089434840588950"},"htmlText":"Maybe. Seems like the economy is separating even more from reality","listText":"Maybe. Seems like the economy is separating even more from reality","text":"Maybe. Seems like the economy is separating even more from 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